[Politics] Brexit

Wokeworrier said:

Anyone with half a brain would look at the main reasons why immigration has increased over the past year ...

Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University's politically independent Migration Observatory research unit, said: "All the forecasts suggested that migration would fall as a result of the post-Brexit immigration scheme, which greatly restricted the options for EU citizens to move to the UK - and indeed, EU net migration remains negative.
"But non-EU migration has risen, primarily not because of the policies designed to replace EU free movement.
"The humanitarian routes for Ukraine and Hong Kong and a rebound in international students have played the largest role in boosting immigration levels.
"These unusually high levels of net migration result from a unique set of circumstances following the war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
"We cannot assume they represent a 'new normal', and it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers."

.... if anything this is a positive news story as it shows we have been welcoming large numbers of people fleeing war zones and the Uk remains a very attractive destination for international students.

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Mellor 3 Ward 4 said:

Benefits of Brexit?

I've said it on here, numerous times, that I'd rather be in the EU than out - but, as the owner of a Company that sells 100% overseas, the collapse of the £ against the USD and € post June 2016 saw our sales significantly increase - in effect our prices to our Customers fell.

More paperwork and hassle selling to the EU - absolutely (especially in the last year) but sales still strong with the € at approx. 1.2.

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dsr-burnley said:

The problem is, of course, that there is more than one way to count inflation. This calculation, as you can see on pages 32-34 of the report, is based on assumptions and logarithms and other complexities, and concludes that prices in September 2021 are 6% higher, relative to previous years' food inflation rates, because of Brexit.

But when you look at actual food inflation, the official food CPI produced by simply looking at how much food costs compared with the previous year, you find that food inflation pre-Brexit was 2.5% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, and 2.0% in 2019. Then it was 1% in 2020 and 1.3% in 2021, so it's awfully hard to see how 6% of that 2.3% rise was caused by Brexit.

I'm sure it's a clever report, but it's too clever by half. You don't need logarithms to measure how much money you're spending!

RPI:Percentage change over 12 months - Food and catering - Office for National Statistics

www.ons.gov.uk

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dsr-burnley said:

Why do Brexit arguments always come down to "I am clever and you are stupid so I will call you rude names"?

I can't produce evidence of the quality that Watfordzero produced in his initial 6 links (I haven't read the extra ones added later), but those six mostly consisted a one man;s prediction that GDP in 2030 would be 2% less than it would have been without Brexit, and that inflation in 2022 might reach 4.4%. I can't prove him wrong about the former.

Tangible benefits of leaving the EU? We aren't in the EU. If we hadn't had three PMs to run the process who were incompetent or dishonest or both to a great degree, we might see tangible benefits as well as intangible. But incompetent politicians aren't purely the result of Brexit.

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dsr-burnley said:

I think you've pretty much summed up the reason certain politicians are so unpopular, especially round here. Whether you are tongue in cheek or not, there is a type of person who believes that they genuinely have a more valuable opinion than the lower orders because they went to the right university, they hold the right opinions, they think they are better people.

There are a lot of them on this board. If you ever thought this place was liberal, then unthink it. It's supremely intolerant of contrary opinions.

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dsr-burnley said:

Exactly. If you only tolerate opinions you agree with, then you are 100% intolerant.

Your anger and attitude says a lot about you but nothing about me.

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Wokeworrier said:

Anyone with half a brain would look at the main reasons why immigration has increased over the past year ...

Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University's politically independent Migration Observatory research unit, said: "All the forecasts suggested that migration would fall as a result of the post-Brexit immigration scheme, which greatly restricted the options for EU citizens to move to the UK - and indeed, EU net migration remains negative.
"But non-EU migration has risen, primarily not because of the policies designed to replace EU free movement.
"The humanitarian routes for Ukraine and Hong Kong and a rebound in international students have played the largest role in boosting immigration levels.
"These unusually high levels of net migration result from a unique set of circumstances following the war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
"We cannot assume they represent a 'new normal', and it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers."

.... if anything this is a positive news story as it shows we have been welcoming large numbers of people fleeing war zones and the Uk remains a very attractive destination for international students.

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Simster said:

I'm angry at Brexit.

I'm merely irritated at you and your tedious propensity to nit-pick while ignoring the elephant in the room - that Brexit has been absolutely shit.

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dsr-burnley said:

It's your board, and yes, I agree it has its share of "I'm glad I'm not prejudiced like Northerners are" people. But not a majority.

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rogersix said:

you're not tolerating our opinion

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rogersix said:

could you just whizz through all of the brexit benefits again, please, ta

probably a bit quicker!

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dsr-burnley said:

You may have missed the point about what tolerance is. Tolerance does not mean agreeing with your opinion, it means accepting your right to have it, and not calling you rude names if I disagree with you.

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dsr-burnley said:

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

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The Clamp said:

Anyone come up with any advantages of Brexit yet?

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dsr-burnley said:

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

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dsr-burnley said:

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

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Thunder Bolt said:

Brighton is not a high wage area. The problem with Brighton is that it is only 50 miles from London where wages are good. So, when London got too expensive we were invaded by DFLs. Down From London.
Local youngsters can’t afford to live here.
I returned south in 2004 and couldn’t afford to buy a property within 12 miles of Brighton, even though my house in Yorkshire was fully paid off.

You really don’t know much about us, do you?

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dsr-burnley said:

If you're not a high wage area, how do you justify those season ticket prices?

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Thunder Bolt said:

Brighton was full of language schools. I knew a few people that taught English. We had coaches full of French and German youngsters every summer arriving at Newhaven, for a week or two to learn. Local people earned a bob or two hosting these youngsters. Local businesses benefited from them buying clothes and souvenirs.
Every single one has closed.

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