[Albion] How many more points do you think we'd have if...

[Farehamseagull]

I'd say he is a little better, which is pretty much to be expected as he is in his peak years. I dont think the difference is very big. I respect your opinion but you also consider Welbeck "far superior" to Maupay and just like (or actually even more so) than in the case with Ings, I just dont agree with your perception of Neal compared to other strikers.

I’ve always been a Welbeck fan and think he’s a bit under rated but the problem with Welbeck is entirely fitness. If he wasn’t injury prone and was able to regularly string a run of games together then I firmly believe he would prove that, then again, he also wouldn’t be with us.

It’s a tough one with Maupay, I actually do like him and can see what he contributes to the team overall. At the moment, that front three of him, Trossard and Mac Allister is definitely our best option and they work well together. But, his decision making at times is really poor (not laying off to Lallana on Saturday a classic example), his touch and passing sometimes let him down and his finishing is obviously not great. I do believe we need an upgrade on him in the long run. I think we’d then see even more from Trossard and Mac who are clearly quality players.

Ings has all of what Maupay is currently missing. Just watch our game back at St Marys at the end of last season, he gave a total masterclass on how to play that position. Lamptey’s worst game for us and that was largely down to Ings. He is a quality performer, too good for Southampton.

I do appreciate that Ings is older than Maupay though so maybe there is more to come from Neal, but I’m not confident.

 

[el punal]

None - he’d have been injured.

On the other hand, how many points would Southampton have “lost” if he wasn’t playing for them?

 

[Hugo Rune]

I'd say he is a little better, which is pretty much to be expected as he is in his peak years. I dont think the difference is very big. I respect your opinion but you also consider Welbeck "far superior" to Maupay and just like (or actually even more so) than in the case with Ings, I just dont agree with your perception of Neal compared to other strikers.

I think that Maupay is probably the better passer and probably puts more pressure on the opposition. However, goal scoring is their trade. Ings is a natural finisher, he has that absolute killer instinct that few possess.

Maupay may well rediscover that instinct (he seemed to have it in the Championship) and his form might improve but for me, there is a sizeable gap. Maupay is an average EPL striker at present, Ings is amongst the top six finishers in the division. He is up there with the likes of Kane, Aguero & Salah.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I’ve always been a Welbeck fan and think he’s a bit under rated but the problem with Welbeck is entirely fitness. If he wasn’t injury prone and was able to regularly string a run of games together then I firmly believe he would prove that, then again, he also wouldn’t be with us.

I’ve noticed just how brilliant Welbeck’s all round game is. He still has pace despite some people thinking that’s gone. He is very strong and his positioning is fantastic. He has great control and can keep fast one touch movements going.

However, his finishing is his weakest area (where as it’s probably Ings strongest).

Top EPL strikers have world class finishing abilities, Welbeck just hasn’t got that critical skill in making sure the ball goes in, too many shots straight to keeper or just wide. If he had those finishing abilities, like Cavani, he’d never drop below the level of the top dozen clubs in the world, even with his injuries.

 

[el punal]

None - he’d have been injured.

On the other hand, how many points would Southampton have “lost” if he wasn’t playing for them?

I’ve just checked some stats - Danny Ings’s goals (apart from defeats) have enabled Saints to claim 12 points in wins and draws.

In comparison, Neal Maupay’s efforts have secured us 8 points.

 

[Weststander]

I couldn’t find separate PL stats for this season for Welbeck for “Big Chances Missed”, so here’s some EPL career comparisons.

EPL goals scored, as a proportion of goals scored & big chances missed (EPL definition):

Ings 63%
Jimenez 62%
C.Wilson 51%
Watkins 48%
Bamford 45%
Maupay, Connolly & Welbeck 45%

So Bamford and Watkins must also get a load of big chances which they fail to tuck away.

Whilst Jimenez and Ings are exceptionally good finishers. Not a surprise to me.

 

[Giraffe]

Or put it another way, a fit and slightly younger Glenn Murray.

If he had played in this team 2/3 years ago he'd have broken the goal scoring record for sure.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

...we had Danny Ings?

Before anyone jumps in, this is not a criticism of Albion's recruitment team, Albion's board, Graham Potter nor our current crop of strikers. Bringing in almost any player involves a gamble of sorts. Neal Maupay could have turned out to be a 25 goal-a-season man in the Premier League (and he still could for that matter), whilst Danny Ings could have continued with his unfortunate injury record and barely be seen in the first team.

Regardless, let's assume that we had signed Danny Ings and he had enjoyed the same level of fitness he has had with Southampton. How many more points do you think we'd have this season with him leading our attack?

4 Points.

We’ve scored a total of 25 goals which have returned 26 points. So we’ve earned approx 1 point per goal.
If we assume Ings would have the same success as Maupay from the penalty spot, but scores at his own better rate of goals to shots on target, allowing for our greater number of chances created, we can create an equation to tell us how many more goals he would theoretically score from the same chances as Maupay.

Ings (Saints stats)
Goals ex penalties: 6
Shots: 36
Shots on target: 18
Shooting accuracy: 50%
Ratio of goals scored / shots on target: 1/3

Maypay (Brighton stats)
Goals ex penalties: 4
Shots: 47
Shots on target: 15
Shooting accuracy: 32%
Ratio of goals scored / shots on target: 1/4

50% (Ings accuracy) of 47 (Maupay’s shots) = 23.5 shots on target
23.5 (shots on target) / 3 (Ings Ratio of goals scored / shots on target) = 8

So Ings would have theoretically scored 8 goals, 4 more than Maupay.
Because our goals and points correlate, we would have won 4 more points.

 

[Swansman]

I think that Maupay is probably the better passer and probably puts more pressure on the opposition. However, goal scoring is their trade. Ings is a natural finisher, he has that absolute killer instinct that few possess.

Maupay may well rediscover that instinct (he seemed to have it in the Championship) and his form might improve but for me, there is a sizeable gap. Maupay is an average EPL striker at present, Ings is amongst the top six finishers in the division. He is up there with the likes of Kane, Aguero & Salah.

Its not their trade. Their trade is to help the team win, its a team sport. Firmino scored only scored 9 goals for Liverpool last season. Dennis Bergkamp didnt score a lot in his later years. Kevin Davies in Bolton rarely if ever reached ten goals yet led the team to great results and any time he was missing they were nothing. Scoring is just a part of a strikers job.

As for "killer instinct",it doesnt exist. Its not a thing. Skill, knowledge, physique etc. are real concepts that you can work and improve on. "Killer instinct"... where is it? What is it? Is it close to the soul? How does it express itself in life outside football, are strikers more likely to end up convicted murderers than players in other positions? Its nonsense - fortunately, because the absence of the existence of some abstract instinct means every player has a tangible chance of improving.

To me, Maupay reminds a lot about a young Henrik Larsson. They have similar qualities: hard work, good movement, slick passing. And they both have a disadvantage: the height. Almost every successful center forward is above 185 cm, meaning you have to usually be more clever to beat your opponents, and that cleverness and experience could take a while to develop. Larsson aged 24 (same age as Maupay is now) was on the Feyenoord bench and when he did start, it was as a winger. About 12 years later he comes on for Barcelona to assist them twice as they beat Arsenal in the CL final.

And that is a pretty common story. We all remember the Owens and the Rooneys and so on getting their break-throughs aged 12 but the far more common story is that it takes longer time. What did Glenn Murray age 24 do? He sure as feck didnt score PL goals but it didnt prevent him from doing it later.

18 players got more PL goals than Maupay this season, 16 of them are older than him. People need to be more patient before they write players off.

 

[blue-shifted]

Its not their trade. Their trade is to help the team win, its a team sport. Firmino scored only scored 9 goals for Liverpool last season. Dennis Bergkamp didnt score a lot in his later years. Kevin Davies in Bolton rarely if ever reached ten goals yet led the team to great results and any time he was missing they were nothing. Scoring is just a part of a strikers job.

As for "killer instinct",it doesnt exist. Its not a thing. Skill, knowledge, physique etc. are real concepts that you can work and improve on. "Killer instinct"... where is it? What is it? Is it close to the soul? How does it express itself in life outside football, are strikers more likely to end up convicted murderers than players in other positions? Its nonsense - fortunately, because the absence of the existence of some abstract instinct means every player has a tangible chance of improving.

To me, Maupay reminds a lot about a young Henrik Larsson. They have similar qualities: hard work, good movement, slick passing. And they both have a disadvantage: the height. Almost every successful center forward is above 185 cm, meaning you have to usually be more clever to beat your opponents, and that cleverness and experience could take a while to develop. Larsson aged 24 (same age as Maupay is now) was on the Feyenoord bench and when he did start, it was as a winger. About 12 years later he comes on for Barcelona to assist them twice as they beat Arsenal in the CL final.

And that is a pretty common story. We all remember the Owens and the Rooneys and so on getting their break-throughs aged 12 but the far more common story is that it takes longer time. What did Glenn Murray age 24 do? He sure as feck didnt score PL goals but it didnt prevent him from doing it later.

18 players got more PL goals than Maupay this season, 16 of them are older than him. People need to be more patient before they write players off.

It obviously does exist. It can be better expressed as a speed of thought, an ability to calculate the action to take which leads to the highest probability of scoring, a calmness at the crucial moment.

It's partially inate; some will never have it. But it can be worked on.

I agree that it's very rare to see it in a young player. It's certainly asking too much for Connolly or Zeqiri to be banging them in at this stage. It's reasonable to ask the question about Trossard and Maupay though. They are getting to the stage where they've played enough top level matches, that you can justifiably expect a greater return given the service they are getting.

 

[Swansman]

It obviously does exist. It can be better expressed as a speed of thought, an ability to calculate the action to take which leads to the highest probability of scoring, a calmness at the crucial moment.

It's partially inate; some will never have it. But it can be worked on.

I agree that it's very rare to see it in a young player. It's certainly asking too much for Connolly or Zeqiri to be banging them in at this stage. It's reasonable to ask the question about Trossard and Maupay though. They are getting to the stage where they've played enough top level matches, that you can justifiably expect a greater return given the service they are getting.

Reasonable according to who? When I first joined I heard plenty of people saying Solly March would never turn into a decent Premier League player, and he had two seasons in the PL behind him - more than Tross & Maupay.

 

[PeterOut]

I'm afraid that this is a sterile and pointless debate without the insightful and balanced contribution that we have come to anticipate, and indeed expect, from b.w.2

 

[blue-shifted]

Reasonable according to who? When I first joined I heard plenty of people saying Solly March would never turn into a decent Premier League player, and he had two seasons in the PL behind him - more than Tross & Maupay.

It's only due to some exceptional defending that our PL place is not seriously at risk. We can't rely on that happening season after season. Opponents will eventually find our defensive weak points.

At some point our strikers are going to have to take a much higher proportion of chances or we'll have to find ones who can. Maupay has had enough PL games that we should be seeing a steady improvement. But he's going backwards. He played much better last season than this.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

How many extra points would we have had with Winchester-born, Southampton-supporting Danny Ings in the side?

Probably none

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm afraid that this is a sterile and pointless debate without the insightful and balanced contribution that we have come to anticipate, and indeed expect, from b.w.2

I have heard a rumour that he's angry that the club haven't singed us a 20+ goals a season striker. Are you suggesting that this rumour is true?

 

[Weststander]

I have heard a rumour that he's angry that the club haven't singed us a 20+ goals a season striker. Are you suggesting that this rumour is true?

If Winstanley and Ashworth had any pride, they’d have resigned ages ago over this failure.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Its not their trade. Their trade is to help the team win, its a team sport. Firmino scored only scored 9 goals for Liverpool last season. Dennis Bergkamp didnt score a lot in his later years. Kevin Davies in Bolton rarely if ever reached ten goals yet led the team to great results and any time he was missing they were nothing. Scoring is just a part of a strikers job.

As for "killer instinct",it doesnt exist. Its not a thing. Skill, knowledge, physique etc. are real concepts that you can work and improve on. "Killer instinct"... where is it? What is it? Is it close to the soul? How does it express itself in life outside football, are strikers more likely to end up convicted murderers than players in other positions? Its nonsense - fortunately, because the absence of the existence of some abstract instinct means every player has a tangible chance of improving.

To me, Maupay reminds a lot about a young Henrik Larsson. They have similar qualities: hard work, good movement, slick passing. And they both have a disadvantage: the height. Almost every successful center forward is above 185 cm, meaning you have to usually be more clever to beat your opponents, and that cleverness and experience could take a while to develop. Larsson aged 24 (same age as Maupay is now) was on the Feyenoord bench and when he did start, it was as a winger. About 12 years later he comes on for Barcelona to assist them twice as they beat Arsenal in the CL final.

And that is a pretty common story. We all remember the Owens and the Rooneys and so on getting their break-throughs aged 12 but the far more common story is that it takes longer time. What did Glenn Murray age 24 do? He sure as feck didnt score PL goals but it didnt prevent him from doing it later.

18 players got more PL goals than Maupay this season, 16 of them are older than him. People need to be more patient before they write players off.

This.

However, you don't really understand the mentality of either a third tier supporter, or a JCL. The third tier supporter is used to shouting 'hoof it' followed by 'quality hoof', or 'get into 'im' followed by '**** them up!'. This fancy Dan nonsesense and claptrap going on at the club these days is destroying the game, ruined by VAR, and you can't even have a smoke at the ground anymore.

Meanwhile the JCL simply doesn't understand why the club hasn't singed a 30 goals a season striker. They are not saying 'sack the board' but heads should roll, and they are angry. So, so angry.

 

[Seasidesage]

Absolutely impossible to know. xG doesn't allow for who the chances would fall to. Does having an in form Ings create space for others? Does having Ings change the way we play and maybe we create less chances as a result? Who knows?

Would we be a better side? Yes almost certainly, Ings is a better and more instinctive goalscorer plus offers more of a threat in behind than any of ours but he also would aid Maupay or whoever was selected to play with him in the same way as Sockboy makes space for others at the Villa. But would other sides be as open against us if we had Ings?

Long winded way to say I've no idea....

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Its not their trade. Their trade is to help the team win, its a team sport. Firmino scored only scored 9 goals for Liverpool last season. Dennis Bergkamp didnt score a lot in his later years. Kevin Davies in Bolton rarely if ever reached ten goals yet led the team to great results and any time he was missing they were nothing. Scoring is just a part of a strikers job.

As for "killer instinct",it doesnt exist. Its not a thing. Skill, knowledge, physique etc. are real concepts that you can work and improve on. "Killer instinct"... where is it? What is it? Is it close to the soul? How does it express itself in life outside football, are strikers more likely to end up convicted murderers than players in other positions? Its nonsense - fortunately, because the absence of the existence of some abstract instinct means every player has a tangible chance of improving.

To me, Maupay reminds a lot about a young Henrik Larsson. They have similar qualities: hard work, good movement, slick passing. And they both have a disadvantage: the height. Almost every successful center forward is above 185 cm, meaning you have to usually be more clever to beat your opponents, and that cleverness and experience could take a while to develop. Larsson aged 24 (same age as Maupay is now) was on the Feyenoord bench and when he did start, it was as a winger. About 12 years later he comes on for Barcelona to assist them twice as they beat Arsenal in the CL final.

And that is a pretty common story. We all remember the Owens and the Rooneys and so on getting their break-throughs aged 12 but the far more common story is that it takes longer time. What did Glenn Murray age 24 do? He sure as feck didnt score PL goals but it didnt prevent him from doing it later.

18 players got more PL goals than Maupay this season, 16 of them are older than him. People need to be more patient before they write players off.

I know I don’t need to tell you this, but at 24, when he was the same age as Maupay is now, Henrik Larsson scored 4 goals in the Champions League and was scoring for Sweden at the World cup. He was always going to be a top player.

Like you, I assumed players improve with age in the Premier league, but a quick look at the evidence, on a very small sample, indicates that if they don’t improve in their 2nd season, they will not significantly improve.
I’m sure there must be examples that disprove this but I can’t think of any.

Here are a few I looked at.

Maupay is 24, so he was only 23 in his first Premier league season.
In his first season he scored 10 league goals 0.33 goals per 90
This season he is averaging 0.39 gp90

Jamie Vardy at 27 scored 5 goals in his first season in the premier league. Just 0.2 goals per 90 mins.
The follow season he scored 24. 0.69 gp90
Since his first season he has been averaging 0.58 gp90

Harry Kane at 20 scored 3 goals in his first season in the premier league. 0.54 gp90
The following season he scored 21. 0.73 gp90
Since his first season he has averaged 0.74 goals per 90 minutes

Chris Wood at 25 scored 10 goals in 24 matches in his first season with Burnley in the Premier league. 0.55 gp90
The following season he scored 10 in 38. 0.35 gp90
Since his first season with Burnley he has averaged 0.41 goals per 90

Danny Ings at 22 scored 11 in 35 in his first season with Burnley in the Premier league. 0.33 gp90
The following season he scored 2 in 6 at Liverpool. 0.53 gp90
Since his first season he has averaged 0.46 goals per 90 minutes

Callum Wilson at 23 scored 5 in 13 in his first season with Bournemouth in the Premier league. 0.58 gp90
The following season he scored 6 in 2. 0.38 gp90
Since his first season he has averaged 0.42 goals per 90 minutes

Perhaps younger players like Anthony Martial or Aaron Connolly who made their break through at 19 are different, but at Maupay’s age, it looks to be now or never to demonstrate he has top quality.

 

[BeHereNow]

Well, let’s more forward and believe we will start taking more chances. This has been one of the most frustrating and yet exciting seasons I’ve seen from the team and I think things can only get better with the young squad we have.

Win half of our games left and we’ll finish 12th. Is it possible? Current form says we can do it, but will our form hold up?