[Albion] We are where we should be. Where do the Potter haters think we should be in the league?

[vagabond]

I'm by no means Potter out, but if we are four points below Leeds (Arsenal are obviously not going to get relegated) and potentially in the relegation zone by Thursday night (Fulham and Burnley win). We are hardly where we should be, are we? Unless of course you think that banking three years experience in the Premier League and spending well over £100m in that time means that we should still be relying on there being three worse teams than us.

I think people would be a lot angrier at Potter had we been allowed to attend games in 2020. 1 win at home in a calendar year. 5 wins in total in a calendar year. He's got a similar win rate to Sami Hyypia (obviously a different level). It's appalling. He's been given a free pass as we aren't paying for the displeasure of watching us capitulate. I was at the Saints game and that second half was depressing, feeble and not at all convincing.

People were understandably calling for Hughton's head for similar results. Potter doesn't have the same good will banked for me, he's achieved very little so far apart from a higher possession stat and really the team needs to show some marked improvement before the end of the year. It's our joint worst start to a top flight season FFS.

It’s wage budget that tells the story though. As I understand it we have a bottom 3 wage budget in this league (I defer to the stattos on this)

For example Ollie Watkins. His transfer fee we could afford, his wages we couldn’t.

And if you sort the table by wage budgets. Then generally the biggest goes to the top. Aka, we are where we should be.

 

[vagabond]

People were understandably calling for Hughton's head for similar results. Potter doesn't have the same good will banked for me, he's achieved very little so far apart from a higher possession stat and really the team needs to show some marked improvement before the end of the year. It's our joint worst start to a top flight season FFS.

And I wouldn’t agree we’ve had Hughton level bad results. Losing to Bournemouth at home 4-0 or was it 5? And losing at home to Cardiff still takes some beating.

 

[Chicken Run]

I think we should be about 4-6 points better off.

Agreed

 

[Beanstalk]

It’s wage budget that tells the story though. As I understand it we have a bottom 3 wage budget in this league (I defer to the stattos on this)

For example Ollie Watkins. His transfer fee we could afford, his wages we couldn’t.

And if you sort the table by wage budgets. Then generally the biggest goes to the top. Aka, we are where we should be.

Actually, according to the 18-19 accounts we had the 14th highest wage budget in the league (as reported in The Athletic). Villa's spending may have ballooned (they were already spending similar to us when they were in the Championship though) but we'll still have a budget well above teams like Wolves, Burnley, Sheffield United and the three promoted teams this year (they'd have all had to double their wage bill over the summer which is highly unlikely as none of them have spent particularly big). We have also given new deals to Connolly, Alzate, White and Dunk this summer, plus Veltman and Lallana will not be on small wages.

In short, there is no way we are bottom three for our total wage. We should be at least 14th by the wage metric and are therefore probably underperforming by at least 5 points.

 

[vagabond]

Actually, according to the 18-19 accounts we had the 14th highest wage budget in the league (as reported in The Athletic)

Ok. And we’re 16th.. So we’re about where we should be, right?

 

[Beanstalk]

And I wouldn’t agree we’ve had Hughton level bad results. Losing to Bournemouth at home 4-0 or was it 5? And losing at home to Cardiff still takes some beating.

Yes, those were appalling results and performances and ultimately where Chris lost his job but apart from those blips we were actually pretty good defensively in Hughton's last year. We only conceded more than twice in 7 of the 38 league game, same as Potter's first season in charge. On our current form this season, it's set to be around 12/13. Ultimately, a couple of shockers does not make a bad season, just ask Ralph Hasenhüttl, continually underachieving does and this is something that both Potter and Hughton are guilty of.

Obviously, I'm not blind to the benefits of Potterball. We are far nicer to watch and it is great to see us so competitive against the division's big spenders but that's going to count for nothing if we go down playing pretty football. At this point last year people were lauding praise on an ultimately awful Norwich team for their style. I think he can turn it around but statistically he is underachieving. A big week coming up.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Ok. And we’re 16th.. So we’re about where we should be, right?

Are you going to persevere with that gormless mantra all season under the misapprehension that it makes you seem like some sort of super-intelligent visionary? How about if by some miracle we claw our way up to 10th at some point? Will you be forced to change it to We're NOT Where We Should Be?

 

[Beanstalk]

Ok. And we’re 16th.. So we’re about where we should be, right?

Well, as per my first post, that all depends on this week doesn't it? If we go and get 6 points then things will look a lot rosier and we'll be closer to where we should be based on our wage bill. If we don't grab any points and Leeds pick up a likely three points at home to Newcastle, we're suddenly 7 points shy of lower mid-table, fighting Arsenal for the most out of form team award, and looking at another season of desperately keeping our heads above water.

For the record, I'm very much of the belief that it will "come good" under Potter, I just feel we are underachieving and the style is papering over a lot of the issues that existed in Hughton's final season (not clinical enough, lack of consistency in our home/away performances, capitulating when we're under pressure).

 

[vagabond]

Are you going to persevere with that gormless mantra all season under the misapprehension that it makes you seem like some sort of super-intelligent visionary? How about if by some miracle we claw our way up to 10th at some point? Will you be forced to change it to We're NOT Where We Should Be?

Where should we be then?

It’s a simple question, even a simple mind should be able to answer.

 

[vagabond]

Well, as per my first post, that all depends on this week doesn't it? If we go and get 6 points then things will look a lot rosier and we'll be closer to where we should be based on our wage bill. If we don't grab any points and Leeds pick up a likely three points at home to Newcastle, we're suddenly 7 points shy of lower mid-table, fighting Arsenal for the most out of form team award, and looking at another season of desperately keeping our heads above water.

For the record, I'm very much of the belief that it will "come good" under Potter, I just feel we are underachieving and the style is papering over a lot of the issues that existed in Hughton's final season (not clinical enough, lack of consistency in our home/away performances, capitulating when we're under pressure).

Fair, reasoned points. And I agree mostly. It does also highlight the very fine margins of elite football.

We’ve certainly been robbed of a few points this season, and if we had those the fickle critics wouldn’t be as likely to moan about the manager.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I've been back and forth with Plooks on this on the main thread.

If we're JUST going by wages we should be 14th and looking upwards. Based on chances and performances I agree with the poster who said 4-6 more points really should be on the board. Again that puts us 14th.

But that is PAR. You might as well bring in Big Sam or, indeed, have stuck with Hughton if all you wanted to do was play match the wage bill. Potter has been brought in to try to smash through that ceiling. Instead, we are looking nervously the other way.

 

[MTSeagulls]

See where we are at the halfway stage and assess then.
We have played 7 out of the current top 8.
So we have played only 5 of the remaining teams, not lost yet (jinxed �&#56881 and averaged 1.8 points per game which, to me anyway, is not so bad.

 

[Beanstalk]

I've been back and forth with Plooks on this on the main thread.

If we're JUST going by wages we should be 14th and looking upwards. Based on chances and performances I agree with the poster who said 4-6 more points really should be on the board. Again that puts us 14th.

But that is PAR. You might as well bring in Big Sam or, indeed, have stuck with Hughton if all you wanted to do was play match the wage bill. Potter has been brought in to try to smash through that ceiling. Instead, we are looking nervously the other way.

Absolutely this.

Southampton are 4th and look great. West Ham are 6th and are looking like they deserve to be there. Palace made some clever signings and are deservedly 7 points ahead of us. These are teams that over the past few seasons have been around us and are now above us.

We can still do better, fixtures have been hard so far and performances have looked good even if the results haven't matched. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing better at this point though, and if we do want to go to another level, we probably need to.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Talking about where we should be and where we are is pretty irrelevant right now. [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s all team tracker is the only guideline worth looking at to see hiw well we're doing in comparison to others.

However this table he posted on that thread is also very interesting.
It's the current table with our scores against the teams we have played.



We have had an incredibly hard start to the season.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Absolutely this.

Southampton are 4th and look great. West Ham are 6th and are looking like they deserve to be there. Palace made some clever signings and are deservedly 7 points ahead of us. These are teams that over the past few seasons have been around us and are now above us.

We can still do better, fixtures have been hard so far and performances have looked good even if the results haven't matched. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing better at this point though, and if we do want to go to another level, we probably need to.

The team that managed a 1-1 draw with us, at home, having 1 shot on target ( a penalty).
Have "made clever signings and are deservedly 7 points ahead of us"

Really?

 

[albionalex]

The team that managed a 1-1 draw with us, at home, having 1 shot on target ( a penalty).
Have "made clever signings and are deservedly 7 points ahead of us"

Really?

The football might not be pretty but they know how to get results.

 

[Beanstalk]

The team that managed a 1-1 draw with us, at home, having 1 shot on target ( a penalty).
Have "made clever signings and are deservedly 7 points ahead of us"

Really?

They might have been trash against us, but got a point nonetheless. They made two serious first team signings (Batshuayi, Eze) and a couple of good squad fillers around that (Clyne, Butland), they also have got their talisman from reportedly downing tools to playing in form. Against us, Batshuayi won (won being very operative in this scenario) a penalty, and scored a goal that was (correctly) ruled out by VAR for offside. Frustratingly, he is a signing that would have improved our team. Since playing us they've scored 12 goals in 7 games, we've scored 6.

Statistically, they are more clinical than us (they have outperformed their GFxG by 3 goals in comparison to our underscoring by 3 goals) and far tighter at the back (they have conceded 4 less than us). They therefore deserve to be 7 points clear of us.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

They might have been trash against us, but got a point nonetheless. They made two serious first team signings (Batshuayi, Eze) and a couple of good squad fillers around that (Clyne, Butland), they also have got their talisman from reportedly downing tools to playing in form. Against us, Batshuayi won (won being very operative in this scenario) a penalty, and scored a goal that was (correctly) ruled out by VAR for offside. Frustratingly, he is a signing that would have improved our team. Since playing us they've scored 12 goals in 7 games, we've scored 6.

Statistically, they are more clinical than us (they have outperformed their GFxG by 3 goals in comparison to our underscoring by 3 goals) and far tighter at the back (they have conceded 4 less than us). They therefore deserve to be 7 points clear of us.

Christ!

You've got it bad mate.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Staying up tracker is all you need to know.
Not comparing with how much better than us Palace are etc.

This is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although Sheffield United out performed expectations last year. They may drop lower this year, so they are possibly the only rogue ones that also look beatable. Oh and of course Arsenal

The first half of the season looks frankly horrible, with us "expected" to only get 16 of the 40 points in the first 19 games. Truly bed wetting stuff. But then a much easier second half of the season brings us home with a further 24 points.

So here it is for the coming season:

- First five games suggest just 3 points. A big early test that could see the bed wetness return.
- After our first win on October 24th by Christmas we have just 14 points from 14 games. Just out of the bottom three?
- By February 6th, game 23 we have just 20 points, people talking about Potter losing his magic, should he go etc....
- We then have a fantastic 17 points out of 11 games, smashing Palace, Villa, Newcastle, Everton and finally Leeds on 1st May (to relegate them?!)
- We edge to 40 with 3 points out of the last 4 games and yet again watch Man City lift the league trophy on our own patch.

I really hope we do better than above, but we should be aware that is a much more tricky first half than we had last season. Thank god, most of us might not see much of it . Only joking, I'm actually gutted

I'll guess at 45-49 points this season by the way. Last season I was a little high.

 

[BadFish]

Talking about where we should be and where we are is pretty irrelevant right now. [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s all team tracker is the only guideline worth looking at to see hiw well we're doing in comparison to others.

However this table he posted on that thread is also very interesting.
It's the current table with our scores against the teams we have played.

View attachment 131428

We have had an incredibly hard start to the season.

Interesting graphic this one.

I agree with those suggesting that the next 4 games or so will make it break Potter as a manager. Nine points and we move up the table and start to play with more confidence. 4 points or less and it's time to think about some new ideas.

It is that our early season promise has not materialised into something more tangible but I am not quite ready to throw the towel in.

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