Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[The Wizard]

R rate is the rate of infection.

R rate is more greatly affected when cases are fewer and so saying an R rate is higher in a certain region than another is a pointless comparison.

If a city has 10 cases one week and then 30 cases the next it’s R rate would be higher than a city that had 10000 cases and then 20000 the next.

 

[Springal]

I do wonder if part of this is because some of the North has been in Tier 2 / Tier 3 for a while now and to avoid a north / south thing or people already in Tier 3 from not obeying it they’ve stuck us all in together now

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I do wonder if part of this is because some of the North has been in Tier 2 / Tier 3 for a while now and to avoid a north / south thing or people already in Tier 3 from not obeying it they’ve stuck us all in together now

Or to prevent the South going the same way as the North ? It’s only a matter of time if my trip to the shops just now in Burgess Hill is anything to go by. I stood outside with the dog whilst my wife went in wearing a mask to buy a bottle of wine. The man behind the counter was not wearing a mask and nor were several of the younger customers.

 

[beorhthelm]

I do wonder if part of this is because some of the North has been in Tier 2 / Tier 3 for a while now and to avoid a north / south thing or people already in Tier 3 from not obeying it they’ve stuck us all in together now

yep.

 

[Springal]

Or to prevent the South going the same way as the North ?

Why would it ? I thought we had the tier system and R rating to determine course of action. Didn’t Leicester go into a local lockdown in July / August ?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Why would it ? I thought we had the tier system and R rating to determine course of action. Didn’t Leicester go into a local lockdown in July / August ?

Because the local tier system is not working. Putting a city into local lockdown just encourages people to travel further afield and spreads the virus.

 

[GT49er]

I still can’t get my head around Sussex moving straight into this Tier 4. We’ve not even had 1000 COVID attributed deaths since January despite what must be a higher than average number of OAPS.

Fine. Have separate rules for Sussex then, as Covid isn't as much of a problem as it is in other places. Of course, if you do that, logically Sussex would have to to self isolate from the rest of the country (or the rest of the country would have to isolate from Sussex, if you prefer) - you can't leave, and you can't come in; end of. Police and the army will man the borders and prevent people crossing.

Or Sussex can just get its head down and work through this with the rest of the country...............

 

[Springal]

Fine. Have separate rules for Sussex then, as Covid isn't as much of a problem as it is in other places. Of course, if you do that, logically Sussex would have to to self isolate from the rest of the country (or the rest of the country would have to isolate from Sussex, if you prefer) - you can't leave, and you can't come in; end of. Police and the army will man the borders and prevent people crossing.

Or Sussex can just get its head down and work through this with the rest of the country...............

Not just Sussex... most of the south. To be fair I’ve been fairly careful in terms of what I do, where I go, who I see the last few months. I was even in agreement with the local lockdown system. The fact this has now happened despite minimal levels of infection & death in the county since January means once this lifts I’ll likely be less careful about what I do, because what’s the point [emoji2375]

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Not just Sussex... most of the south. To be fair I’ve been fairly careful in terms of what I do, where I go, who I see the last few months. I was even in agreement with the local lockdown system. The fact this has now happened despite minimal levels of infection & death in the county since January means once this lifts I’ll likely be less careful about what I do, because what’s the point [emoji2375]

To save the lives of people you love and help NHS staff do their job ? I know you are just sounding off but there is no alternative to us all being in this together.

 

[GT49er]

Not just Sussex... most of the south. To be fair I’ve been fairly careful in terms of what I do, where I go, who I see the last few months. I was even in agreement with the local lockdown system. The fact this has now happened despite minimal levels of infection & death in the county since January means once this lifts I’ll likely be less careful about what I do, because what’s the point [emoji2375]

Fair enough - Sussex or the south of England, my point still stands; if you're going to have different restrictions for different areas, you ultimately have to prevent travel between them.
I am puzzled by one part of Johnson's message though. He said this was different from the first lockdown. How? - it looks just the same to me; I shall be stuck at home on my own, and will miss my grandson's first birthday and miss seeing my grandchildren generally.

 

[Springal]

To save the lives of people you love and help NHS staff do their job ? I know you are just sounding off but there is no alternative to us all being in this together.

I get it and I am being a bit reactionary, I guess I’ve already seen the ‘damage’ to immediate family who live by themselves, in flats and stuck working and living in the same space with no real contact for a long time and I’m concerned on the impact this lockdown will have.

 

[Poojah]

I say this as a father of two young, school age children however I can’t help but feel that this lockdown is doomed to fail whilst schools and nurseries remain open. We’re inflicting yet more economic hardship whilst failing to tackle the problem robustly enough.

My mother-in-law is a childminder. She also cares for her 82 year old mum, a lovely old lady who is sadly suffering from Alzheimer’s. She’s already had one of her children test positive - fortunately neither her or my two sisters-in-law picked it up on that occasion. But we’re now looking at a period of very high virus prevalence, probably until the Spring when either we have a vaccine to roll out or we’re forced to do something more drastic once again.

I fear for my wife’s grandmother and the no doubt thousands of people across the country in similar positions. I just don’t see this working in the slightest. I hope I’m wrong. I hope I’m very, very wrong.

 

[wealdgull]

R rate is more greatly affected when cases are fewer and so saying an R rate is higher in a certain region than another is a pointless comparison.

If a city has 10 cases one week and then 30 cases the next it’s R rate would be higher than a city that had 10000 cases and then 20000 the next.

And 18 weeks after that the city that started with 10 cases would have more than the city that started with 10,000.

 

[Hugo Rune]

He said this was different from the first lockdown. How? - it looks just the same to me

1. Mr Johnson was careful not to call it a lockdown - it’s called ‘tougher Autumn measures’.

2. People are not being asked to shield. Vulnerable people or those aged over 60 are just being told to be especially careful. In essence, they are saying that ‘it’s out there everywhere, shied or take your chances - it’s your choice.’

 

[Napper]

NHS is empty , let that sink in

kick the can down the road

do not pass go , sussex straight to tier 4

laughable

 

[GT49er]

1. Mr Johnson was careful not to call it a lockdown - it’s called ‘tougher Autumn measures’.

2. People are not being asked to shield. Vulnerable people or those aged over 60 are just being told to be especially careful. In essence, they are saying that ‘it’s out there everywhere, shield or take your chances - it’s your choice.’

Exactly - that's why I'm asking what is the difference!

 

[raymondo]

Fair enough - Sussex or the south of England, my point still stands; if you're going to have different restrictions for different areas, you ultimately have to prevent travel between them.
I am puzzled by one part of Johnson's message though. He said this was different from the first lockdown. How? - it looks just the same to me; I shall be stuck at home on my own, and will miss my grandson's first birthday and miss seeing my grandchildren generally.

It's different because schools and Universities stay open I guess

 

[rogersix]

1. Mr Johnson was careful not to call it a lockdown - it’s called ‘tougher Autumn measures’.

2. People are not being asked to shield. Vulnerable people or those aged over 60 are just being told to be especially careful. In essence, they are saying that ‘it’s out there everywhere, shied or take your chances - it’s your choice.’

basically, bungle is the skipper of the costa concordia

 

[Shooting Star]

2. People are not being asked to shield. Vulnerable people or those aged over 60 are just being told to be especially careful. In essence, they are saying that ‘it’s out there everywhere, shied or take your chances - it’s your choice.’

That "especially careful" caveat will probably lead to some specific guidance being realised this week, though. For instance, Boris hinted that if you're in the extremely clinically vulnerable and cannot work from home, you should not go to work. I imagine we'll hear more before Thursday.

 

[GT49er]

It's different because schools and Universities stay open I guess

Fair point. It doesn't affect me so I hadn't thought about that.

Slaps wrist and retires gracefully .......................