Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'll take me stats from China cheers, where with a population of a billion they had less than a dozen new cases reported this morning. That's the blueprint approach to take IMHO, rather than relying on some wanky modelling software. Cos that worked so well in the lead up to the global financial crisis

You are quite correct.

However, at some point, the Chinese will have to leave their homes. Unless they can be sure of complete eradicatation of all virus (we do not know if it lingers in the body even after the end of the infection - it could easily remain nascent in the recovered population - or close their borders forever more, it will come back again.

A mate of mine is a very good modeller. He is self isolating till some time in April (possibly longer). He predicted exacty what we are seeing now in China - and the bounce back if it is not entirely eradicated.

My concern is our government is going to vaccilate (until we can vaccinate), possibly lurching into a lockdown at some point without the contingency to keep folk alive. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Dominic Cummings will bust a gut to save peoples' livelihoods and lives no matter what it costs the taxpayer. We shall see.

 

[Springal]

Virgin Atlantic will cut four-fifths of its flights and has asked staff to take eight weeks of unpaid leave. Billionaire Richard Branson asking staff to take 8 weeks unpaid leave.

Hopefully the staff stick around for 4-8 weeks. Then resign on mass leaving them screwed when we get out the end of this. Takes about 3 months to fully train new cabin crew

Parent company Delta also announced record profits recently.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Arnie knows what to do...

 

[BrickTamland]

This morning I had two texts, one from Hove Medical Centre requesting that I don’t visit the surgery etc. the other text reminding me of my dental checkup appointment at Portslade Village dental surgery. I would have thought a routine dental checkup isn’t that important in the grand scale of things. If I had toothache maybe, but I’m not sure I want to sit in a waiting room with others (they are always running late) and then have the dentist poking around in my mouth.

Yes but you sitting in a dentists chair isn’t denying anyone at risk medical care they need, like going to the doctors for a non-serious issue that could wait. If you, or dental staff at that practice, showed symptoms then bookings would be cancelled and/or the surgery closed. No inconsistency there

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

In breaking news, Scotland bans mass gatherings of more than 500 people. That's the end of the Aberdeen taxi trade then

 

[atomised]

1543 new total today

 

[Notters]

In breaking news, Scotland bans mass gatherings of more than 500 people. That's the end of the Aberdeen taxi trade then

At least there'll be no impact on football.

 

[Stat Brother]

Quite an interesting behavioural science piece:

It is now just shy of 24 hours since Boris Johnson told us to carry on as normal.

Public transport is deserted, pubs and restaurants are closing down, the football’s cancelled, the rugby’s off – and it has to be acknowledged that the government’s “nudge unit” has played a blinder.

It has come in for a fair bit of criticism, the Behavioural Insights Team, to give it its proper name, for seeming to be behind the UK having a wildly different coronavirus battle plan to the rest of the world, but credit where credit’s due.

It can only have been the nudge unit’s idea to get the least trusted man in the nation’s history to tell us that any kind of mass public lockdown would be counterproductive at this stage. Because 20 minutes later, it was immediately like I Am Legend out there.

A further paragraph too good to leave out:-

It is well known in behavioural psychology circles that people are far more likely to keep to rules they have set for themselves than those that are imposed on them from the top down, so deploying Johnson to instil the required levels of blind panic by telling everyone there’s no need to panic is truly a stroke of genius.

 

[Stat Brother]

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

Number of cases
As of 9am on 16 March 2020, 44,105 people have been tested in the UK, of which 42,562 were confirmed negative and 1,543 were confirmed as positive.

 

[Weststander]

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]’s the last poster NOT petty party politicising this. Sticking to facts and constantly reminding us of the unknowns.

The last man standing, as others succumbed to the ‘everything’s being done so much better everywhere but the UK’ unproven nonsense.

 

[dazzer6666]

Virgin Atlantic will cut four-fifths of its flights and has asked staff to take eight weeks of unpaid leave. Billionaire Richard Branson asking staff to take 8 weeks unpaid leave.

Branson's Virgin Group only own 20% of VA................doubt it was down to him

 

[atomised]

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]’s the last poster NOT petty party politicising this. Sticking to facts and constantly reminding us of the unknowns.

The last man standing, as others succumbed to the ‘everything’s being done so much better everywhere but the UK’ unproven nonsense.

I've not once mentioned politics in this thank you very much. In fact I too have mentioned that we dont know which method is right and we wont for some time

 

[Swansman]

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]’s the last poster NOT petty party politicising this. Sticking to facts and constantly reminding us of the unknowns.

The last man standing, as others succumbed to the ‘everything’s being done so much better everywhere but the UK’ unproven nonsense.

The fact that a lot is unknown doesnt mean it has to be nonsense.

Certainly hope the UK is doing the right thing because the Swedish state epidemiologist said that we are "happy to follow UK" as "they have the best epidemiologists in the world". I hope he is correct - he also said on February 28 that the virus was "unlikely to spread in Sweden" and on March 6 that we we're "at the peak of new infections", so my confidence in him is not at the top.

While I seriously question it I hope its the right way to go or we our countries are in deep shiet.

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

Branson's Virgin Group only own 20% of VA................doubt it was down to him

I appreciate that. But the Virgin brand is still very much associated with Branson and as a major shareholder and face of the company I am sure that he would have been consulted over this decision.

 

[DumLum]

Yes, and Mosquitos, people around where I live have ponds and ever since I moved here I get bites and have to take anti hestimines as am infected quite easily, so plenty of deet now the warmer weather is coming.
We have taken to self isolation for the past 3-4 weeks as are retired and only go out when absolutely necessary, especially so as we both have underlying health issues which puts us in the at risk grouping.
All anyone can do is minimise their own risk and minimise the risk they put on others. How on earth people who have to work and travel are going to cope is beyond me. Just keep safe people and hope we all come through this together.

Thankfully you can't get it from mosquito bites. Was just thinking about the hygiene issue with flies. I don't think many of us that work are worried about the virus regarding our health. But we are worried about the financial situation and passing it onto older relatives. I think it's a good idea to self isolate before the government tells you too if you can afford it and are in an at risk group.

 

[Stat Brother]

Exponential growth means that if it, like they are stating, the disease is doubling in three days, by the first week of April there will be 100 000 new cases every day, 5-15% getting hospitalised - thats 10 000 or so every day. If they fail to "flatten the curve", image what it looks like the month after that.

I just dont understand how many in here who can not understand how serious the situation is.

The fact that a lot is unknown doesnt mean it has to be nonsense.

Certainly hope the UK is doing the right thing because the Swedish state epidemiologist said that we are "happy to follow UK" as "they have the best epidemiologists in the world". I hope he is correct - he also said on February 28 that the virus was "unlikely to spread in Sweden" and on March 6 that we we're "at the peak of new infections", so my confidence in him is not at the top.

While I seriously question it I hope its the right way to go or we our countries are in deep shiet.

Can you see any flaws in these 2 posts?

 

[beorhthelm]

The fact that a lot is unknown doesnt mean it has to be nonsense.

Certainly hope the UK is doing the right thing because the Swedish state epidemiologist said that we are "happy to follow UK" as "they have the best epidemiologists in the world". I hope he is correct - he also said on February 28 that the virus was "unlikely to spread in Sweden" and on March 6 that we we're "at the peak of new infections", so my confidence in him is not at the top.

While I seriously question it I hope its the right way to go or we our countries are in deep shiet.

View attachment 121077

great graph. i wonder if you know countries do not count "bed" as the same thing? some count a physical apparatus somewhere in their inventory, others count one with requisite number of staff available for a week long shift.

 

[Stat Brother]

Thankfully you can't get it from mosquito bites. Was just thinking about the hygiene issue with flies. I don't think many of us that work are worried about the virus regarding our health. But we are worried about the financial situation and passing it onto older relatives. I think it's a good idea to self isolate before the government tells you too if you can afford it and are in an at risk group.

It was said many many years ago, Branson had the attention span of a goldfish and was never consulted on anything.

The very epitome of 'finally having one great idea'.



Good luck to him, for that.

 

[Swansman]

Can you see any flaws in these 2 posts?

First post is about the exponential growth curve every scientist, expert and statesman has been talking about and pointing to and what it means numbers wise if they are correct.

The second post is about the UK:s & Sweden's goal of "flattening the curve" to avoid the scenario in the first post and my personal wishes for this to be succesfull.

Whats the problem?

 

[Rodney Thomas]

great graph. i wonder if you know countries do not count "bed" as the same thing? some count a physical apparatus somewhere in their inventory, others count one with requisite number of staff available for a week long shift.

Wow! You really an expert in everything, aren't you