[Football] Statistics - I hate statistics!

[Triggaaar]

Hahahah I think you mean that you like the precision of the average.

Nice work. You have earned a pedant star.

I think the post of chief pendant is currently vacant; I’ll pencil your name in.

FatSuperman is always hanging around.

 

[GT49er]

Hahahah I think you mean that you like the precision of the average. Look out [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION], I'm coming for your position as Chief Pendant.

If intentional, then still !

 

[Triggaaar]

If I were you [MENTION=16171]InsaneSociety[/MENTION], I'd be asking for a moderator to delete this thread before [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION] spots it, and start another one. Get the new one right.

He'll unleash hell and fury upon you for this series of, quite frankly, schoolboy errors.

I'm in need of help here (special help too I know), what errors would they be?

 

[Triggaaar]

At the beginning of the season, I predicted that the most you can expect from those games is probably 6 points, and as you see, the average is well under 5.

Right, but there's a quarter of the season to go, so the average should be close to 6.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Seriously guys, we need games played plus 5% to stay up, I think we're all agreed on that even though I feel 36 will do it. So 38 games plus 5% (2.4pts) = 40.4, I'll take the point 4 as our goal diff. We have 34 points and are sitting 10th FFS, two wins does it, come on, jump on the happy bus we're in a great place and one that you'd have taken on Day 1 of the season.

 

[Triggaaar]

Seriously guys, we need games played plus 5% to stay up, I think we're all agreed on that even though I feel 36 will do it.

You don't even agree with it!

come on, jump on the happy bus we're in a great place and one that you'd have taken on Day 1 of the season.

Of course we would

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

You don't even agree with it!

Of course we would

Fair point, most people express that 40 pts is the number of points needed to ensure safety, although I feel 36 would do it.

 

[perseus]

Only the top Five count now!

 

[Triggaaar]

Fair point, most people express that 40 pts is the number of points needed to ensure safety, although I feel 36 would do it.

Yeah the 40 points thing has been in the media recently as an old figure used when there were more teams in the league. Also when managers talk of a target, it's a bit silly if they're aiming for 37, as 37 is normally enough, only for them to then get relegated because a couple more is needed in a particular season.

So 40 points is a good target, and teams feel a bit safer then (although teams have still been relegated with 40 in the past). But I'd guess we won't quite need 40 this season.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Yeah the 40 points thing has been in the media recently as an old figure used when there were more teams in the league. Also when managers talk of a target, it's a bit silly if they're aiming for 37, as 37 is normally enough, only for them to then get relegated because a couple more is needed in a particular season.

So 40 points is a good target, and teams feel a bit safer then (although teams have still been relegated with 40 in the past). But I'd guess we won't quite need 40 this season.

Agreed, 36.6 has been the average requirement, I do think, with our goal difference, 36 would see us safe BUT I'm happier to bank 40!! (I think we'll end up with 43 anyway.)

 

[InsaneSociety]

I acknowledge there are still a few mistakes, but after the first were alerted, I've spent all day getting it right. My main mistake was not updating properly after Sat/Sun?Mon games, but I'm confident it is correct now.

I've also done a table against the top 6 which contains all the scores. No school boy errors, but if I have made one, please tell me. I'll update both tables and publish here each Monday until the end of the season.

I did say it was worthless didn't I?

 

[warmleyseagull]

Right, but there's a quarter of the season to go, so the average should be close to 6.

To be precise, 123 matches played vs top 6. By end of season 168 matches played. Based on expected value 6 for the season, the mean points achieved to date should be 123/168*6 = 4.39, close to achieved to date as OP has shown.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I'm in need of help here (special help too I know), what errors would they be?

Which errors?

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

Which errors?

Oy! Triggaaars' the resident pedant.

 

[Triggaaar]

Oy! Triggaaars' the resident pedant.

I can't point out my own mistakes, someone else needs to do that.

What's does this mean?
Triggaaars'

 

[Dick Head]

I'm going to really annoy you now - but you've still missed the 'Pts VS top 6' for Newcastle... They've got 4 points from top 6 - 1 from Liverpool and 3 from United..

So much for precision and accuracy.

 

[larus]

To be precise, 123 matches played vs top 6. By end of season 168 matches played. Based on expected value 6 for the season, the mean points achieved to date should be 123/168*6 = 4.39, close to achieved to date as OP has shown.

OMG!! Do you know what you’ve done man? Really?
[MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION] is the Lord Pedant. You’ve been pedantic to him. This could be serious - I’d advise taking precautions. Don’t walk home alone, it’s just not worth the risk.

 

[Triggaaar]

To be precise, 123 matches played vs top 6. By end of season 168 matches played. Based on expected value 6 for the season, the mean points achieved to date should be 123/168*6 = 4.39, close to achieved to date as OP has shown.

Right, so you're agreeing with me, yes?

 

[looney]

I know this is worthless really, but it does indicate how teams outside the top six perform against each other, and come the end of the season, might be relevant?

The figure in the bottom right hand corner is the average number of points taken from the 'Big 6'

At the beginning of the season, I predicted that the most you can expect from those games is probably 6 points, and as you see, the average is well under 5.

Table correct after Crippled Alice Vs Munchester UntiedView attachment 94964
I'll update this after each Albion game.

Those numbers cant be right, the points gap between us and palace is 7, theyve got one more point of top 6 which makes it 8 not 4.

 

[warmleyseagull]

OMG!! Do you know what you’ve done man? Really?
[MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION] is the Lord Pedant. You’ve been pedantic to him. This could be serious - I’d advise taking precautions. Don’t walk home alone, it’s just not worth the risk.

Trig and I have this occasional flirtatious fling on the pedant dance floor. It’s nothing serious, just a bit of fun. I can’t keep up with his prodigious output.