Witney By-Election.... a verdict on Cameron or May ?

[vegster]

Is this a general anti Tory vote or were the electorate taking their anger out on Cameron by voting Lib-Dem or taking their anger out on the new "Thatcher "Mrs May ( Notice the significance here only two female PM's one with the initials MT the other with TM )..... Or is this a genuine lurch towards Europe by voting for the unashamed pro-Europe Lib-Dems ?

Either way this was a massive slump in the Tory majority in a nailed on Tory heartland.

 

[carteater]

WHAT A RESULT FOR THE LIB DEMS, WE ARE GOING UP......

.

 

[SAC]

It's still a big win for the Tories in a seat that has always been Tory. Possibly good news for the LibDems but a bit too early to say.

 

[nicko31]

Living in the area I’d say a lot of Tories voted Lib as they are p**sed off with the Tories over brexit, over 70% voted to remain. Makes you wonder that if there were general election tomorrow, it perhaps wouldn’t be the landslide everyone would expect

 

[Mackenzie]

If the Libs can get their act together they could become relevant again. Labour are unelectable and the Cons are *******s.

 

[spring hall convert]

It's a pro-Europe protest from an area that was very in favour of staying in isn't it?

Not sure there's much to see here really.

 

[spring hall convert]

If the Libs can get their act together they could become relevant again. Labour are unelectable and the Cons are *******s.

Not with Tim Farron at the helm they won't.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility though, I would say there's a higher probability of the Labour Party sorting itself out than the Liberals getting back anywhere near their 2010 total at the next election. I think currently they'd view 30 seats as an absolute result.

They're right to stick to their guns on Europe though, for better or for worse that's going to be their USP in this Parliament.

 

[Mackenzie]

Not with Tim Farron at the helm they won't.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility though, I would say there's a higher probability of the Labour Party sorting itself out than the Liberals getting back anywhere near their 2010 total at the next election. I think currently they'd view 30 seats as an absolute result.

They're right to stick to their guns on Europe though, for better or for worse that's going to be their USP in this Parliament.

Oh I agree, hence the act together comment. The first act being the removal of the invisible man.

 

[Audax]

It's a pro-Europe protest from an area that was very in favour of staying in isn't it?

Not sure there's much to see here really.

There's a bit to see. That it was the Lib Dems who picked up the votes that went away from the Tories is potentially important - it could be an early sign that with everything that's happened since the last GE that the LD voters who left have realised that punishing the Lib Dems for the previous coalition government may have been pinning the tail on the wrong donkey. If that's happening further afield as well, we could actually see the LDs come back stronger than the were before getting wiped out.

It raises the possibility of the Lib Dems surging back into being a relevant party again at the next GE. Taken alongside Labour's vote share slipping slightly, there's two things this result could do: cement in for the Tories that they should *not* call an early GE, as this result is evidence that a genuine strongly anti-Brexit party could win enough seats to cause them more issues (especially in partnership with the SNP) than they face currently. Or, it could encourage them to go early on the basis that they need to act before the LDs can gain any more, and before Labour can sort themselves out.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Even allowing for poll error I think it's safe to say the Lib Dems have some way to go.

Labour/UKIP in a mess ... May could call a GE at any time and get a much increased majority.

 

[spring hall convert]

There's a bit to see. That it was the Lib Dems who picked up the votes that went away from the Tories is potentially important - it could be an early sign that with everything that's happened since the last GE that the LD voters who left have realised that punishing the Lib Dems for the previous coalition government may have been pinning the tail on the wrong donkey. If that's happening further afield as well, we could actually see the LDs come back stronger than the were before getting wiped out.

It raises the possibility of the Lib Dems surging back into being a relevant party again at the next GE. Taken alongside Labour's vote share slipping slightly, there's two things this result could do: cement in for the Tories that they should *not* call an early GE, as this result is evidence that a genuine strongly anti-Brexit party could win enough seats to cause them more issues (especially in partnership with the SNP) than they face currently. Or, it could encourage them to go early on the basis that they need to act before the LDs can gain any more, and before Labour can sort themselves out.

Perhaps there might be a difference of terminology here. I'm saying 'not much to see.' you're saying 'could mean virtually anything.' I think both opinions amount to the same thing.

FWIW, I don't disagree with your analysis, just that there's way to much noise around at the moment to base anything on one by-election in the safest of safe Tory seats.

 

[Audax]

Perhaps there might be a difference of terminology here. I'm saying 'not much to see.' you're saying 'could mean virtually anything.' I think both opinions amount to the same thing.

FWIW, I don't disagree with your analysis, just that there's way to much noise around at the moment to base anything on one by-election in the safest of safe Tory seats.

Let me rephrase: there's not much to see in terms of definitive indications. On that, yeah I agree with you. But the flipside is that politics is very rarely definitive, and for those who want to speculate there's actually a lot to be "seen" in these results. What gets seen is likely to depend on who's doing the seeing, but I do suspect that the surge in the LD vote (which as we can see goes completely against what the national polls are suggesting) is likely to get a bit of talk happening.

 

[Jim D]

Is this a general anti Tory vote or were the electorate taking their anger out on Cameron by voting Lib-Dem or taking their anger out on the new "Thatcher "Mrs May ( Notice the significance here only two female PM's one with the initials MT the other with TM )..... Or is this a genuine lurch towards Europe by voting for the unashamed pro-Europe Lib-Dems ?

Either way this was a massive slump in the Tory majority in a nailed on Tory heartland.

I would say that Cameron has shown himself to be a weak and self-centred PM - especially in the way he dealt with the EU and his actions after the referendum. Regarding the LibDems they have traditionally been a protest vote in a by-election. After 2010 this role was taken by UKIP but they're back now.
Regarding a General Election I think TM is looking for a way to repeal the fixed term parliament act and hold one on a topic that won't make it look like she's taking advantage of Labour's problems. Perhaps something about Brexit if she gets too much push back from remoaner MPs and can't get the work done. If this is the case then there will be a bloodbath in those areas with 'stay' MPs in 'leave' constituencies.

 

[Gwylan]

Regarding a General Election I think TM is looking for a way to repeal the fixed term parliament act and hold one on a topic that won't make it look like she's taking advantage of Labour's problems. Perhaps something about Brexit if she gets too much push back from remoaner MPs and can't get the work done. If this is the case then there will be a bloodbath in those areas with 'stay' MPs in 'leave' constituencies.

I think trying to push for an early GE is fraught with difficulties. She either has to call for a vote of no confidence in her own government (a dangerous thing to do) or repeal the FTPA. That's not that straightforward; she has to find parliamentary time during a period when there's a lot of Brexit work to do.

And even if she did get it sorted, it's not totally straightforward that they'd win an increased majority. What happens if there is this progressive alliance that Lab/Lib/Greens have started talking about? Even if it were only in selected seats, that could hit a Tory majority. It's a risky strategy and May doesn't strike me as someone to take risks

 

[Two Professors]

The only facts that can be taken from this are that voters in Witney are too busy to turn out for a by-election,compared to the turn-out for the General Election.Or perhaps,couldn't be arsed!The Lib-Dems are great at local politics,and this was probably reflected in their vote,but absolutely useless at national politics.A party that used to field political giants like Ashdown,Steele,Jenkins etc,is now reduced to fielding non-entities like Clegg.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think trying to push for an early GE is fraught with difficulties. She either has to call for a vote of no confidence in her own government (a dangerous thing to do) or repeal the FTPA. That's not that straightforward; she has to find parliamentary time during a period when there's a lot of Brexit work to do.

not difficult at all, anyone can table the motion "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election" and if it gains a majority of two-thirds, we have a General Election. obviously for that to happen needs Labour to support it (SNP and others wouldn't be enough), and as they are preparing to fight a GE they would obviously support it. right?

 

[El Presidente]

. May could call a GE at any time and get a much increased majority.

She would need to repeal the fixed term parliament act for that to be the case, which needs a 2/3 majority to become statute.

Can't see Labour voting for it, or the SNP, so it is unlikely.

Surely the last thing that's needed during Brexit negotiations is the distraction of a 4 month election campaign? The government is failing at present with fudged decisions on new runway for London, paying over the odds for Hinckley and washing its hands on Southern Rail. It needs to focus.

 

[Gwylan]

not difficult at all, anyone can table the motion "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election" and if it gains a majority of two-thirds, we have a General Election. obviously for that to happen needs Labour to support it (SNP and others wouldn't be enough), and as they are preparing to fight a GE they would obviously support it. right?

It's not difficult to table a motion, but I couldn't see Labour support it. They would support a no confidence motion but, as I said, that's a risky strategy for the Tories to take - the last government that lost a no confidence motion lost the subsequent GE, even though their leader was far more popular than the opposition one

 

[nicko31]

There's a bit to see. That it was the Lib Dems who picked up the votes that went away from the Tories is potentially important - it could be an early sign that with everything that's happened since the last GE that the LD voters who left have realised that punishing the Lib Dems for the previous coalition government may have been pinning the tail on the wrong donkey. If that's happening further afield as well, we could actually see the LDs come back stronger than the were before getting wiped out.

It raises the possibility of the Lib Dems surging back into being a relevant party again at the next GE. Taken alongside Labour's vote share slipping slightly, there's two things this result could do: cement in for the Tories that they should *not* call an early GE, as this result is evidence that a genuine strongly anti-Brexit party could win enough seats to cause them more issues (especially in partnership with the SNP) than they face currently. Or, it could encourage them to go early on the basis that they need to act before the LDs can gain any more, and before Labour can sort themselves out.

I wouldn't rule out some kind of grand coalition against what we have now. That might seem far fetched but give it a couple of years and people will really be asking themselves if they want another 5 years of UKIP

 

[BensGrandad]

It is usual for governments to struggle during a midterm by election if they are doing their job effectively so I shouldnt think the PM is too concerned.