No one posted this article link yet? Analysis of Albion's position. Warning: Grauniad link

[highflyer]

Apologies if old news - but a good read I thought:

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/apr/14/brighton-chris-hughton-calm-promotion-push

 

[Machiavelli]

Some attention ...

... from the media, but beware NSCers, it's from that awful organ The Guardian:

Chris Hughton’s level-headed Brighton staying calm in unlikely promotion push

Manager has helped transform the 33-1 outsiders into genuine contenders to finish in the top two after some smart recruitment and careful team-building

Nick Miller

Those marvelling at Leicester’s extraordinary season have been rather fond of comparisons between where they are now, and where they were a year ago. So here’s another one for you: at this stage last season, Brighton and Hove Albion were 18th in the Championship and would slip to 20th by May, two places away from relegation. Now, Chris Hughton’s side are third in the table and could move into the automatic promotion spots with a win against Fulham on Friday night.

Rated as 33-1 outsiders back in August (only seven of the division’s 24 teams were longer), they’ve achieved a dramatic turnaround that nonetheless seems to fit their manager’s image quite nicely: relatively low-key, quietly efficient, not flashy but certainly effective. Monday’s victory over Nottingham Forest was their tenth in the last 15, a run that now sees them only behind Middlesbrough and Burnley in the table. Indeed, because of how the remaining fixtures have fallen – Burnley host Boro on Tuesday, who in turn play Brighton on the last day of the season – all three clubs are in the slightly curious position of having their fate in their own hands. All three know that if they win the next five games, they will be promoted.

For Brighton, that’s quite an achievement, particularly when you consider the top two have been able to spend heavily on the likes of Andre Gray, Jordan Rhodes, Stewart Downing and David Nugent: Hughton’s big summer signing was 35-year-old Bobby Zamora on a free.

That’s not to say this Brighton squad has been cobbled together with bits of string and luncheon vouchers, but they’ve had to recruit smartly. Fewer mistakes can be absorbed for a team of their means, which is why Hughton and the club’s head of recruitment, Paul Winstanley, spend so much time making sure the players they target have been the right ones. And this season at least, their hit rate has been pretty good, with Tomer Hemed, Beram Kayal and Connor Goldson a few of the less heralded pieces of business that have turned out very nicely indeed.

In addition Jiri Skalak, a Czech winger who has an impressive line in dead balls and crosses, arrived in January, as did perhaps the final creative cherry on top, Anthony Knockaert, signed from Standard Liege and who in another universe might have been part of the extraordinary goings on at Leicester. All of which has given them great depth; against Forest Hughton was able to give Knockaert a break by leaving him on the bench, Manchester United loanee James Wilson hasn’t been able to get near the team in recent weeks, while club captain Gordon Greer is being kept out of the side by 23-year-old Goldson, signed from Shrewsbury in the summer.

“One thing we certainly wanted was to have that type of competition,” says Hughton. “That’s been a major plus for us, and it’s been shown in recent games what effect they can have.” He’s not wrong: Skalak has set up four goals in the last three games, while Knockaert changed the game when he came on against Forest.

Brighton’s last few seasons have seen significant flux, to say the least. In the last three years they have had four different managers; Gus Poyet took them to the playoffs but was constantly winking at bigger clubs, Óscar García achieved the same but promptly resigned and Sami Hyypia was an ill-suited disaster. Hughton’s arrival on New Year’s Eve in 2014 at least brought a sense of calm and stability, taking them from the brink of relegation to safety by mid-March, with enough of a cushion to survive a late-season dip and remain in the division by six points.

That calmness is one of the reasons that these final five, potentially very tense games don’t seem to be phasing squad nor manager at all. “It’s very very much business as usual,” says Hughton. “This group have been very level-headed all season. We went through a difficult period after going so long undefeated (after not losing any of their first 21 games, they then went seven without a win), but they showed a real desire to come through that.”

Since a 1-0 victory over Blackburn in January, Brighton have lost just once (a bizarre, 4-1 aberration at Cardiff) and won ten, conceding only 12 goals in the process. And now here they are, promotion in their own hands and at a stage in the season where nerves don’t so much jangle as clank like enormous church bells. Having someone like Hughton at the helm should steady things in the last few fixtures, though.

“He’s done that all the way through,” says David Stockdale, the goalkeeper who a few years ago was on the brink of the England team, and could well be again soon. “He gets things across in a way that you can’t not listen, and you can’t not be intrigued with what he’s got to say. Against Forest, we played quite well in the first half, but in the second that was probably our worst for a long time, and he told us – but he didn’t have to shout. That’s where he comes into his own – he knows we know, so there’s no point in coming in and shouting at us. It’s experience, and being a top-class manager.

“If you put anyone in [anywhere in the team] we’re settled,” continues Stockdale. “It feels like you can slot anyone in [anywhere]. If I could run I could probably play anywhere because we’ve done that much training on it.”

So with promotion this close, would Hughton regard the season as a failure if they don’t go up, bearing in mind where they were a year ago? “Of course expectations levels rise. It’s normal,” Hughton says. “We absolutely deserve to be where we are now. When you’ve done that all season like we have, you want to finish the season well. I think if we don’t, there will be a disappointment. There’s a drive within the group to do that.”

 

[Berty23]

I like the line about poyet.

 

[sparkie]

I like the line about poyet.

A bit of a winker, it seems

 

[Goldstone1976]

That's an excellent analysis - very fair.

I note however the obligatory spelling mistake that seems to be in every reasonable length article/piece in any decent medium (the BBC website is currently the worst, imo), with the exception of the FT and the Economist. Here - it's "phasing" instead of "fazing".

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Just before you but not clear from the title.

http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?336513-Some-attention

 

[JonnyComeEarly]

"....because of how the remaining fixtures have fallen – Burnley host Boro on Tuesday, who in turn play Brighton on the last day of the season – all three clubs are in the slightly curious position of having their fate in their own hands. All three know that if they win the next five games, they will be promoted."


*gulp*

who will blink first.....

 

[highflyer]

Ah, thanks, posted at almost the same time.

If possible, maybe someone can merge with a title that makes it clearer (and also warns people they'll be directed to the Guardian as i know that will upset some as much as I get upset when i accidently click a link to the daily mail, I mean who wants THAT in their internet history)

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

Thank you for sharing.

 

[highflyer]

I like the line about poyet.

It's a great line.
And Sami's suits were pretty awful!

 

[Peteinblack]

Ah, thanks, posted at almost the same time.

If possible, maybe someone can merge with a title that makes it clearer (and also warns people they'll be directed to the Guardian as i know that will upset some as much as I get upset when i accidently click a link to the daily mail, I mean who wants THAT in their internet history)

Wife: "I've just seen your browsing history again. You dirty deceitful b@stard. After last time, you promised me you'd stop."
Bloke: "Oh my God, sorry love. I only look at the porn sites occasionally; none of the women are half as good as you, honest. I'm not thinking of them when we're in bed, I promise."
Wife: "I don't mind the porn. It's your furtive, sneaky, disappearances to the bathroom to look at the Daily Mail online that I'm so disappointed at. What sort of pervert have I married?"

 

[Giraffe]

David Stockdale, the goalkeeper who a few years ago was on the brink of the England team, and could well be again soon.

I also like this line very much too. Deserves to be mentioned in the top five England goalkeepers in my view.

 

[Machiavelli]

That's an excellent analysis - very fair.

I note however the obligatory spelling mistake that seems to be in every reasonable length article/piece in any decent medium (the BBC website is currently the worst, imo), with the exception of the FT and the Economist. Here - it's "phasing" instead of "fazing".

I thought it was a good analysis too. I didn't spot the error you identified, however, but might venture that said error was an incorrect choice of word, rather than a spelling mistake.

 

[Stato]

The first comment after the article made me laugh:

"Of course, the dog that is not barking is our old friend financial fair play. Brighton actually have the second highest revenue in the Championship (after Leeds) - yet they are still making bigger losses than almost anyone else in the division and have one of the biggest debt mountains.

Brighton's accounts for the 2013-14 season show they lost £10.6m - that was down from £15m the year before - and were spending £20m in wages, significantly above the median for the division. With director loans to the club of over £200,000,000. The only reason they were not down as insolvent was that the land on which the Amex is built was valued at a staggering £111m.

And the accounts for 2014-5 are not much better. Slightly more in wages, a ratio of spending only just below total income, a loss of nearly £20mSimilar levels of losses to Leicester and of clubs currently in the division lower only than Leeds, Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Forest, who have a transfer ban. And that was after a transfer profit of £8m, which may not be repeated. But the net debt is £140,500,000. That's at Bolton levels and bigger than anyone else in the Championship. Had Brighton been forced to fund that debt, like other clubs without generous owners, well...

The one mitigation they have with that gargantuan debt is it is a long-term impact from the depredations of Archer, as Brighton did not have an old ground to finance a new one."

A fairly one eyed reading of the situation that glosses over the fact that the loss includes very large amounts connected with infrastructure items that are not spent on the team or included in FFP submissions. Looking at his posting history, he is a Birmingham fan. No mention of the three years of (outside of FFP calculation) parachute payments that they have enjoyed since relegation, or the fact that he is lecturing other teams about FFP whilst supporting a team owned by a convicted money launderer and run by the receivers.

 

[The Albion Roar]

Interesting read, but it's only written with the perspective of last season.

For all the journalist who believed we would repeat last season's folly, the reality is - last season was an abberation. Of course, we weren't expecting the season we have had, but it's hardly on a par with Leicester's. We've now achieved three play-offs (minimum) out of four. There is a consistency which went by the way last season, but which isn't considered in many journalists' writing.

 

[The Albion Roar]

The first comment after the article made me laugh:

"Of course, the dog that is not barking is our old friend financial fair play. Brighton actually have the second highest revenue in the Championship (after Leeds) - yet they are still making bigger losses than almost anyone else in the division and have one of the biggest debt mountains.

Brighton's accounts for the 2013-14 season show they lost £10.6m - that was down from £15m the year before - and were spending £20m in wages, significantly above the median for the division. With director loans to the club of over £200,000,000. The only reason they were not down as insolvent was that the land on which the Amex is built was valued at a staggering £111m.

And the accounts for 2014-5 are not much better. Slightly more in wages, a ratio of spending only just below total income, a loss of nearly £20mSimilar levels of losses to Leicester and of clubs currently in the division lower only than Leeds, Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Forest, who have a transfer ban. And that was after a transfer profit of £8m, which may not be repeated. But the net debt is £140,500,000. That's at Bolton levels and bigger than anyone else in the Championship. Had Brighton been forced to fund that debt, like other clubs without generous owners, well...

The one mitigation they have with that gargantuan debt is it is a long-term impact from the depredations of Archer, as Brighton did not have an old ground to finance a new one."

A fairly one eyed reading of the situation that glosses over the fact that the loss includes very large amounts connected with infrastructure items that are not spent on the team or included in FFP submissions. Looking at his posting history, he is a Birmingham fan. No mention of the three years of (outside of FFP calculation) parachute payments that they have enjoyed since relegation, or the fact that he is lecturing other teams about FFP whilst supporting a team owned by a convicted money launderer and run by the receivers.

Perversely, it's the generous owner who has put the debt there in the first place.

Of course, he has to use the word 'debt'. The reality is it's more of a 'gift'.

 

[Brightonfan1983]

The first comment after the article made me laugh:

"Of course, the dog that is not barking is our old friend financial fair play. Brighton actually have the second highest revenue in the Championship (after Leeds) - yet they are still making bigger losses than almost anyone else in the division and have one of the biggest debt mountains.

Brighton's accounts for the 2013-14 season show they lost £10.6m - that was down from £15m the year before - and were spending £20m in wages, significantly above the median for the division. With director loans to the club of over £200,000,000. The only reason they were not down as insolvent was that the land on which the Amex is built was valued at a staggering £111m.

And the accounts for 2014-5 are not much better. Slightly more in wages, a ratio of spending only just below total income, a loss of nearly £20mSimilar levels of losses to Leicester and of clubs currently in the division lower only than Leeds, Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Forest, who have a transfer ban. And that was after a transfer profit of £8m, which may not be repeated. But the net debt is £140,500,000. That's at Bolton levels and bigger than anyone else in the Championship. Had Brighton been forced to fund that debt, like other clubs without generous owners, well...

The one mitigation they have with that gargantuan debt is it is a long-term impact from the depredations of Archer, as Brighton did not have an old ground to finance a new one."

A fairly one eyed reading of the situation that glosses over the fact that the loss includes very large amounts connected with infrastructure items that are not spent on the team or included in FFP submissions. Looking at his posting history, he is a Birmingham fan. No mention of the three years of (outside of FFP calculation) parachute payments that they have enjoyed since relegation, or the fact that he is lecturing other teams about FFP whilst supporting a team owned by a convicted money launderer and run by the receivers.

Brilliant. I do hope you were at least tempted to reply to him?

 

[perseus]

"Against Forest, we played quite well in the first half, but in the second that was probably our worst for a long time,"

That stuck out ot me.

I think that was the same aginst Leeds and I wish we could maintain our good play for the whole of 96 minutes, or 120 minutes which may occur?

Same for Boro and Burnley though, although Burnley seem to be more consistent, scoring early or late and fading in the middle of games.

One thing I have noticed this season and not so often before, is the substitutes have trouble getting up to the pace of the game, some of them. Most noticeable against Sheff Wednesday. I am not sure why this is as the Wednesday games was just boring and not particularly high paced.

Why do we have a reputation of not being able to hold on to a lead? Is it the two wingers? Is it losing possession? Or because the opposition ups their game?

 

[Brightonfan1983]

I also like this line very much too. Deserves to be mentioned in the top five England goalkeepers in my view.

Maybe, but... http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36038866

Goalkeeper David Stockdale would rather reach the Premier League with Brighton than be called up by England.

With Stoke's Jack Butland out with a broken ankle, Burnley goalkeeper Tom Heaton is in line to be included in the national squad for Euro 2016.

Stockdale, 30, was named in several England squads during Fabio Capello's reign but remains uncapped.

"It is always nice but I would take promotion this season over an England call-up any day," he told BBC Sussex.

Both Heaton and Stockdale have been ever-presents in the Championship this season, with Heaton keeping 17 clean sheets for the Clarets compared to Stockdale's 15 for the Seagulls.

Brighton are third in the Championship table and Stockdale is prioritising his club commitments, despite having the ambition of playing internationally.

"It is always something you work for," he said. "You don't really set goals and say 'I want to be in the England squad' because sometimes you can be unrealistic.

"I know there are very good goalkeepers and I am not saying I am better than anyone. I will just do what I can do for Brighton."

Stockdale was named in several England squads in 2011, while Fabio Capello was boss
Albion started the campaign with a 21-match unbeaten run in the league and are now two points off the automatic promotion places, which are currently occupied by Middlesbrough and Burnley.

However, with the top two facing each other next Tuesday and Brighton travelling to Middlesbrough on the final day, the Seagulls know wins in their final five games of the season will see them return to the top flight for the first time since 1983.

"It is brilliant to think that we have five games and just have to look after our own business," said Stockdale. "It is a strange feeling to be this close but yet so far away.

"Everyone sees the team spirit we have put together over the last few weeks. We are in a good place and all we can do is play our games."

 

[Goldstone1976]

I thought it was a good analysis too. I didn't spot the error you identified, however, but might venture that said error was an incorrect choice of word, rather than a spelling mistake.

Agreed! You ready to concede defeat on our bet yet? REMF have plans for your money, I'm sure.