[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[philsussex]

Saturday/Sunday looks very interesting going on the latest models.

But then again how many times have we said that recently!

I always WANT to believe the good news!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I always WANT to believe the good news!

For snow 'fans' the latest models and forecasts are very encouraging.

 

[Djmiles]

Slightly concerned about the guys on netweather saying it will shift West with us missing out.

Can you shed any light on this Papa?

 

[Yoda]

For all you snow lovers:

7 Day Weather Forecast for Worthing - Netweather.tv

 

[Woodchip]

For all you snow lovers:

7 Day Weather Forecast for Worthing - Netweather.tv

It looks like they are clutching at straws a little. I guess we'll only know if it's gonna snow when the stuff is falling out the sky.

Sent by the power of squirrel poo

 

[The Wizard]

It could all change but if, as predicted the front stalls over us, we could see between 10-20cm of snow locally perhaps more, at a cautious estimate, it just depends how far east the front gets before it stalls. Significant snow on the way for some parts of the UK, we just have to wait to find out exactly where although we look to be in a fairly good position with this sort of event. And if the models are correct the snow won't be a melt affair it will be sticking around and this will help drop temperatures considerably next week. I have pretty high confidence, 75% or so. Thoughts fellow weather gurus?

 

[Woodchip]

It could all change but if, as predicted the front stalls over us, we could see between 10-20cm of snow locally perhaps more, at a cautious estimate, it just depends how far east the front gets before it stalls. Significant snow on the way for some parts of the UK, we just have to wait to find out exactly where although we look to be in a fairly good position with this sort of event. And if the models are correct the snow won't be a melt affair it will be sticking around and this will help drop temperatures considerably next week. I have pretty high confidence, 75% or so. Thoughts fellow weather gurus?

Please be right. Please be right. Please be right. Please be right. Please be right.

Sent by the power of squirrel poo

 

[Stumpy Tim]

It could all change but if, as predicted the front stalls over us, we could see between 10-20cm of snow locally perhaps more, at a cautious estimate, it just depends how far east the front gets before it stalls. Significant snow on the way for some parts of the UK, we just have to wait to find out exactly where although we look to be in a fairly good position with this sort of event. And if the models are correct the snow won't be a melt affair it will be sticking around and this will help drop temperatures considerably next week. I have pretty high confidence, 75% or so. Thoughts fellow weather gurus?

They had better not start canceling flights... I would be furious

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It could all change but if, as predicted the front stalls over us, we could see between 10-20cm of snow locally perhaps more, at a cautious estimate, it just depends how far east the front gets before it stalls. Significant snow on the way for some parts of the UK, we just have to wait to find out exactly where although we look to be in a fairly good position with this sort of event. And if the models are correct the snow won't be a melt affair it will be sticking around and this will help drop temperatures considerably next week. I have pretty high confidence, 75% or so. Thoughts fellow weather gurus?

To answer this and djmiles's question. This is the classic battleground situation... the computer models struggle with these scenarios, as they tend to under-estimate just how hard a large pool of cold air is to shift...

To summarise, we're currenty in a very cold and dry airflow, which is giving cold sunny days, and very cold nights with temps well below freezing.

Other than the chance of a few showers overnight tonight in the far east of Sussex and a greater shower threat later Friday it's to the West that we need to look for potential snow.

(See here for the possible snow showers Friday night http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif)

However, it's finely balanced for snow. If you look here:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=305&ext=1&y=192&run=0&runpara=0

The 850hpa temp range for the precipitation spike is anything from 0C (rain) to -12C (probably no prec for that one) but it's clear just there that it's not guaranteed.

The options are:

The front makes quick progress Eastwards and the warm sector (between the 2 fronts of here) http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif reaches us before the fronts can occlude (join). This would give us a short period of snow from the warm front then quickly rain

The front slows down and allows the occlusion to occur to our West and you get basically what the Met Off Fax chart here is showing http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif The 'triple point' where the fronts occlude is just to our West and moving south, meaning the warm sector is now off the ground and we have cold air to the West and colder air to the East of the front. This would be still borderline for coastal areas as I think there will be a southerly wind for a time but inland and at altitude (downs) it could be very snowy.

Option 3 has the cold air holding the front back for even longer, so you definitely don't get a warm sector, but also the front fizzles out before reaching us, and we get some light snow or none at all. Ironcially this would be the coldest scenario (see -12C 850hpa temps in plot above).

So, it's going to be a nightmare for the pro forecasters....

I personally say it's going to be snow for many in the East / SE but perhaps there's a risk of rain on the coast.

Longer term it looks like the cold may not return.

 

[Notters]

Longer term it looks like the cold may not return.

I know long-range forecasts are close to useless; but do you have any predictions for the spring and summer?

 

[Hillian1]

To answer this and djmiles's question. This is the classic battleground situation... the computer models struggle with these scenarios, as they tend to under-estimate just how hard a large pool of cold air is to shift...

To summarise, we're currenty in a very cold and dry airflow, which is giving cold sunny days, and very cold nights with temps well below freezing.

Other than the chance of a few showers overnight tonight in the far east of Sussex and a greater shower threat later Friday it's to the West that we need to look for potential snow.

(See here for the possible snow showers Friday night http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif)

However, it's finely balanced for snow. If you look here:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=305&ext=1&y=192&run=0&runpara=0

The 850hpa temp range for the precipitation spike is anything from 0C (rain) to -12C (probably no prec for that one) but it's clear just there that it's not guaranteed.

The options are:

The front makes quick progress Eastwards and the warm sector (between the 2 fronts of here) http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif reaches us before the fronts can occlude (join). This would give us a short period of snow from the warm front then quickly rain

The front slows down and allows the occlusion to occur to our West and you get basically what the Met Off Fax chart here is showing http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif The 'triple point' where the fronts occlude is just to our West and moving south, meaning the warm sector is now off the ground and we have cold air to the West and colder air to the East of the front. This would be still borderline for coastal areas as I think there will be a southerly wind for a time but inland and at altitude (downs) it could be very snowy.

Option 3 has the cold air holding the front back for even longer, so you definitely don't get a warm sector, but also the front fizzles out before reaching us, and we get some light snow or none at all. Ironcially this would be the coldest scenario (see -12C 850hpa temps in plot above).

So, it's going to be a nightmare for the pro forecasters....

I personally say it's going to be snow for many in the East / SE but perhaps there's a risk of rain on the coast.

Longer term it looks like the cold may not return.

So in a nutshell, no-one has a clue?

Should be like South Africa, get the forecast wrong and go to jail.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I know long-range forecasts are close to useless; but do you have any predictions for the spring and summer?

Sorry, that was a MASSIVE typo.... I meant Longterm it looks like the mild may not return, sorry

 

[The Wizard]

To answer this and djmiles's question. This is the classic battleground situation... the computer models struggle with these scenarios, as they tend to under-estimate just how hard a large pool of cold air is to shift...

To summarise, we're currenty in a very cold and dry airflow, which is giving cold sunny days, and very cold nights with temps well below freezing.

Other than the chance of a few showers overnight tonight in the far east of Sussex and a greater shower threat later Friday it's to the West that we need to look for potential snow.

(See here for the possible snow showers Friday night http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif)

However, it's finely balanced for snow. If you look here:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=305&ext=1&y=192&run=0&runpara=0

The 850hpa temp range for the precipitation spike is anything from 0C (rain) to -12C (probably no prec for that one) but it's clear just there that it's not guaranteed.

The options are:

The front makes quick progress Eastwards and the warm sector (between the 2 fronts of here) http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif reaches us before the fronts can occlude (join). This would give us a short period of snow from the warm front then quickly rain

The front slows down and allows the occlusion to occur to our West and you get basically what the Met Off Fax chart here is showing http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif The 'triple point' where the fronts occlude is just to our West and moving south, meaning the warm sector is now off the ground and we have cold air to the West and colder air to the East of the front. This would be still borderline for coastal areas as I think there will be a southerly wind for a time but inland and at altitude (downs) it could be very snowy.

Option 3 has the cold air holding the front back for even longer, so you definitely don't get a warm sector, but also the front fizzles out before reaching us, and we get some light snow or none at all. Ironcially this would be the coldest scenario (see -12C 850hpa temps in plot above).

So, it's going to be a nightmare for the pro forecasters....

I personally say it's going to be snow for many in the East / SE but perhaps there's a risk of rain on the coast.

Longer term it looks like the cold may not return.

Not sure I agree with your final statement(Just seen was typo) but agree with most of your other comments however I am pretty confident we will have prolonged snow Saturday into Sunday and colder next week than now due to lying snow. I think once we see today's model runs we'll have a lot more certainty in forecast as by then its only +48h.

 

[Giraffe]

Oh come on give us some snow. I am suffering bad withdrawal symptoms.

 

[Giraffe]

I know long-range forecasts are close to useless; but do you have any predictions for the spring and summer?

Great comment, made me laugh out loud that one!!

 

[Woodchip]

Don't forget that this had been the mildest winter since the earth was created and we haven't had any nights below 0. We'll be luck to see any snow before 2015 because it's been so warm. Even my daffodils are our in flower and my oak trees are in leaf.

This hyperbole was bought to you in memory of US.

Sent by the power of squirrel poo

 

[HAILSHAM SEAGULL]

So Uncle S got it wrong AGAIN, no wonder he banned himself.

 

[Flex Your Head]

I was out walking last night (in the Beckenham / Sydenham area) and it was bitterly cold. When the wind blew, my face felt like it was being sliced with tiny knives. I was surprised that there's no hint of frost though, and no icy windscreens. Is this usual?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I know long-range forecasts are close to useless; but do you have any predictions for the spring and summer?

I think we'll see a trend for days to get longer, with the consequence that nights will shorten. This will continue throughout Spring, but I think it will tend to tail of as we reach June and by the end of June there is a strong signal for the process to reverse, so I'd forecast shortening days (and of course lengthening nights from then on).....

 

[The Wizard]

I was out walking last night (in the Beckenham / Sydenham area) and it was bitterly cold. When the wind blew, my face felt like it was being sliced with tiny knives. I was surprised that there's no hint of frost though, and no icy windscreens. Is this usual?

This is due to low dew points, basically the air is VERY dry and so there is no moisture in the air to create frost.