What do you think the next government will be?

[Kalimantan Gull]

With the polls moving around, not much daylight between the three parties, lots of talk about Uniform National Swing, tactical voting and hung parliaments, and an election tomorrow, what do you think the next government will be?

This is NOT a thread for scoring political points, go somewhere else for that

 

[Simster]

I've got a horrible feeling that the Tories might squeak in with a majority, but I really think the most likely thing to happen is for the Labour and LibDems to accept a Tory/Unionist minority government at the cost of much-needed electoral reform.

 

[Hotchilidog]

I've got a horrible feeling that the Tories might squeak in with a majority, but I really think the most likely thing to happen is for the Labour and LibDems to accept a Tory/Unionist minority government at the cost of much-needed electoral reform.

To be honest that is my fear also. I just think the tories are going to nick it probably with the help of the unionists. The big shame for me is that they have got away with saying absolutely nothing in this election. With the labour campaign proving to (in one instance quite literally) a political car crash they have not had to extend themselves at all.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

To be honest that is my fear also. I just think the tories are going to nick it probably with the help of the unionists. The big shame for me is that they have got away with saying absolutely nothing in this election. With the labour campaign proving to (in one instance quite literally) a political car crash they have not had to extend themselves at all.

But is that really true. The conseravtives have said that they want to cut things this year, which is a stark difference to Labour and Libdems. They've certainly talked more about what they want to do than labour has, who really have played the most negative campaign I've ever seen in a general election.

 

[wellquickwoody]

As I wrote on another thread.

I think people may have a surprise coming. Historically the average Tory voter is older than the rest, and these people are less likely to tell any polling organisation their preference. Although the polls show a likely hung parliament I think the Tories will edge it.

 

[Chicken Run]

As I wrote on another thread.

I think people may have a surprise coming. Historically the average Tory voter is older than the rest, and these people are less likely to tell any polling organisation their preference. Although the polls show a likely hung parliament I think the Tories will edge it.

I can confirm this, my 77 yo mum was contacted over the weekend, and in no certain terms told the person on the phone to mind her own business, she is a Tory btw.

 

[Simster]

But is that really true. The conseravtives have said that they want to cut things this year, which is a stark difference to Labour and Libdems.

Yes it is. We haven't really got a clue where the cuts are going to be made, and Cameron is still bleating on about this "jobs tax" which I personally find far more palatable than cutting essential public services.

They've certainly talked more about what they want to do than labour has, who really have played the most negative campaign I've ever seen in a general election.

This is true too. Personally, I think that while they have become arrogant and taking power for granted, they have got quite a lot to be proud of. I saw "warsaw"'s list of achievements on the other thread, and found BUTTERBALL's attempted rubbishing of most of it, quite unconvincing. Anyway, they've done a poor job of convincing potential Labour voters like me of all the good they've done. I don't want to hear about how crap the Tories might be, I want to hear about *your* party, Gordon.

 

[Curious Orange]

Personally I think that there is bugger all difference policy-wise between Conservatives and the Lib Dems - the stand out differences being on Trident, electoral reform, and road-pricing (were you aware that the Lib Dems want to charge you extra to use all motorways and trunk roads?). Everything else seems much of a muchness really (you can argue about tax/tax credits/etc all day, but I guarantee that none of the major parties will end up making anyone richer - because they can't afford to).

I think we'll end up with a Conservative/Lib Dem coallition, and I don't think that'd be a bad thing at all.

 

[Hotchilidog]

But is that really true. The conseravtives have said that they want to cut things this year, which is a stark difference to Labour and Libdems. They've certainly talked more about what they want to do than labour has, who really have played the most negative campaign I've ever seen in a general election.

They have blathered on about "efficiency savings" not properly thought out cuts. To be honest all three major parties have been evasive on this issue. The only thing they have been clear about have been tax cuts for people who don't need them. They have also not been taken to task about their response to the recent financial meltdown which has just been woeful. I am loathe to give much credit to this administration but they have handled this crisis reasonably well.

When the tories gleefully start wielding the axe I very much doubt it will be those who can afford to look after themselves who will be taking the hit.

 

[withdeanwombat]

Gone for the return of the LibLab pact and I believe that is most likely.I still think the Lib Dems have a lot to lose in a hung Parliament as they will be "showing their cards" to the electorate whoever they chose to make kings,and a second general election would probably soon follow.


But like just about every nation,the scope for action for any new govt will be narrow:not cuts or no cuts,but which cuts and how deep.And of course many decisions are made by the Eurocrats these days,so there are already limitations on the powers of European national govts.

 

[surrey jim]

Labour-Libdem coalition

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Labour-Libdem coalition

Please no.

And just who would be PM?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

As I wrote on another thread.

I think people may have a surprise coming. Historically the average Tory voter is older than the rest, and these people are less likely to tell any polling organisation their preference. Although the polls show a likely hung parliament I think the Tories will edge it.

true about some elderly not revealing their preference. Then there is the mobile phone generation that won't get polled because they haven't a landline, the people the internet pollsters miss because they don't have a computer, the fact that a woman is far far more likely to answer the phone in a household.

All of this should make polls unreliable, but the pollsters KNOW THEIR STUFF and weight for all of this.

I reckon the libdens will prop up a conservative minority government in return for some kind of voting reform. However if labour and the libdems can somehow raise a majority between them, perhaps even with some nationalist or 4th party support, they'll jump at it. In fact one option i left off is the possibility of a labour libdem minority coalition, which could happen if labour do much better than expected, eg 30-31 per cent, and rely on the dup, caroline lucas if she gets in, the three independents, plus some nationalists, to back them most of the time. But of course unlikely

 

[Mr Everyone]

Yes it is. We haven't really got a clue where the cuts are going to be made, and Cameron is still bleating on about this "jobs tax" which I personally find far more palatable than cutting essential public services.

This is true too. Personally, I think that while they have become arrogant and taking power for granted, they have got quite a lot to be proud of. I saw "warsaw"'s list of achievements on the other thread, and found BUTTERBALL's attempted rubbishing of most of it, quite unconvincing. Anyway, they've done a poor job of convincing potential Labour voters like me of all the good they've done. I don't want to hear about how crap the Tories might be, I want to hear about *your* party, Gordon.

You want to HEAR what Gordon's party has done since it came to power? Have you lived overseas in that time at all? Have you only started watching the news since the election was called a month ago?

I could write down a list of what Labour have achieved if you like and fill you in..

 

[Simster]

You want to HEAR what Gordon's party has done since it came to power? Have you lived overseas in that time at all? Have you only started watching the news since the election was called a month ago?

I could write down a list of what Labour have achieved if you like and fill you in..

It's been done already, but thanks all the same.

No, I'd rather Labour talked about their achievements as opposed to slagging off their opponents, although I think I made that clear to all but the simplest of simpletons.

 

[Kumquat]

As I wrote on another thread.

I think people may have a surprise coming. Historically the average Tory voter is older than the rest, and these people are less likely to tell any polling organisation their preference. Although the polls show a likely hung parliament I think the Tories will edge it.

The pollsters know that and weight the polls accordingly. More likely to be a late swing to labour in my view as the floating voters tend to stick with the status quo.

 

[ROSM]

As I wrote on another thread.

I think people may have a surprise coming. Historically the average Tory voter is older than the rest, and these people are less likely to tell any polling organisation their preference. Although the polls show a likely hung parliament I think the Tories will edge it.

And as I've mentioned a fair few times - age isn't the only factor. Research after the 92 election and the 2005 election has identified that the Tories will do better in elections than polls because a significant percentage of people perceive the vote they have made to be a self centric one and so do not admit to having made it (i.e. ruled by head rather than heart). The 1992 pollsters went back to people after the event and asked who they'd voted for and got roughly the same stats as the plls had shown. They asked a few more questions of the stated labour voters and then challenged that the individual seemed a natural conservative. It was then that some stated they had actually voted conservative and gave reasons why.

For this reason alone I reckon a small conservative majority with the help of the unionists and their vote being mitigated by a reduction in the lib dem share from the polls - labour therefore coming second.

 

[Mr Everyone]

It's been done already, but thanks all the same.

No, I'd rather Labour talked about their achievements as opposed to slagging off their opponents, although I think I made that clear to all but the simplest of simpletons.

...and you think the Conservatives/Lib Dems have not been negative?

Going on the three prime ministerial debates and last night's speech made in Sheffield, the Labour leader presented to the viewer a whole range of achievements, but also highlighted the need for caution should the electorate consider voting Tory. As the Conservatives are Labour's serious opposition, is it not in their interests to play them down?

This is electioneering and it isn't new. Do you remember the Blue's '97 campaign, 'New Labour, New Danger'? The 1970s Tory poster of long dole queues caused by the Callaghan government?

 

[Simster]

I know it isn't new, but in a 3 way election fight, I think the electorate need to more about what each party is offering, and less scaremongering.

Interesting you bring up the Tory 97 campaign of New Labour, New Danger. I remember it well. Tell me, how did the Tories get on in that election?

 

[Mr Everyone]

They were mullered. Having been in power for eighteen years. Sadly, I think the same will happen to Labour.

In response to your first line, the electorate can easily find out what they are offering by reading the manifestos of each party, and looking back at their record. You don't vote for a party on the basis of how positive/negative they appear on TV/radio during an election campaign, do you?