[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 38 Update

[nickbrighton]

one of the best threads on NSC, it keeps us grounded when we have a run of great results, and keeps us from despair when the opposite is true. I am firmly in the "if it aint broke, don't fix it camp" but in common with posts above think the European tracker is probably set too low, so a slight adjustment on that is probably warranted to raise the required total to 65.

Thanks to @Giraffe for this annual institution. I'm looking forward to next seasons version already

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Now I love the tracker and all, but out of 38 games we did what the staying-up tracker predicted in only 6 games (2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats) and what the Europe tracker predicted in just 10 of 38 (6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats).

So, again, love the tracker, etc etc, but its not the best at predicting results. In part that is our shocking inability to beat the bottom sides, but I do think you should run some test algorithms to see if it can be improved, perhaps by looking at our opponents form over multiple seasons; perhaps by assigning some away wins against the poorest sides; perhaps by adjusting it mid-season to account for form and actual quality of opponents, so it can become a better predictor of the season.

 

[Badger]

Thanks as always @Giraffe for keeping the tracker going. What a great finish to the season, going over the Europe tracker for the first time since late November.

Are you going to take the lucrative contract to do the tracker for the Club World Cup in the summer?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Now I love the tracker and all, but out of 38 games we did what the staying-up tracker predicted in only 6 games (2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats) and what the Europe tracker predicted in just 10 of 38 (6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats).

So, again, love the tracker, etc etc, but its not the best at predicting results. In part that is our shocking inability to beat the bottom sides, but I do think you should run some test algorithms to see if it can be improved, perhaps by looking at our opponents form over multiple seasons; perhaps by assigning some away wins against the poorest sides; perhaps by adjusting it mid-season to account for form and actual quality of opponents, so it can become a better predictor of the season.

Oh, as an actual predictor of results we could just as well replace it with a random number generator.

But it makes people happy, and in this particular context that's all that matters.

 

[Yoda]

The past 15 Teams that missed out on Europe via leage position:

2024-25	8th	Brighton & Hove Albion	61pts
2023-24	7th	Newcastle United	60pts
2022-23	8th	Tottenham Hotspur	60pts
2021-22	8th	Leicester City	52pts
2020-21	8th	Arsenal	61pts
2019-20	7th	Wolverhampton Wanderers	59pts
2018-19	8th	Everton	54pts
2017-18	8th	Everton	49pts
2016-17	8th	Southampton	46pts
2015-16	8th	Liverpool	60pts
2014-15	8th	Swansea City	56pts
2013-14	7th	Manchester United	64pts
2012-13	6th	Everton	63pts
2011-12	7th	Everton	56pts
2010-11	6th	Liverpool	58pts

Only twice has the points tally been higher in 2012-13 & 2013-14

 

[The Oldman]

Another big thank you to @Giraffe . The best thread as ever.

 

[Audax]

The past 15 Teams that missed out on Europe via leage position:

2024-25	8th	Brighton & Hove Albion	61pts
2023-24	7th	Newcastle United	60pts
2022-23	8th	Tottenham Hotspur	60pts
2021-22	8th	Leicester City	52pts
2020-21	8th	Arsenal	61pts
2019-20	7th	Wolverhampton Wanderers	59pts
2018-19	8th	Everton	54pts
2017-18	8th	Everton	49pts
2016-17	8th	Southampton	46pts
2015-16	8th	Liverpool	60pts
2014-15	8th	Swansea City	56pts
2013-14	7th	Manchester United	64pts
2012-13	6th	Everton	63pts
2011-12	7th	Everton	56pts
2010-11	6th	Liverpool	58pts

Only twice has the points tally been higher in 2012-13 & 2013-14

What you need is the points tally of the team above the team that missed out. So this season would be 65 points.

 

[nickbrighton]

Now I love the tracker and all, but out of 38 games we did what the staying-up tracker predicted in only 6 games (2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats) and what the Europe tracker predicted in just 10 of 38 (6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats).

So, again, love the tracker, etc etc, but its not the best at predicting results. In part that is our shocking inability to beat the bottom sides, but I do think you should run some test algorithms to see if it can be improved, perhaps by looking at our opponents form over multiple seasons; perhaps by assigning some away wins against the poorest sides; perhaps by adjusting it mid-season to account for form and actual quality of opponents, so it can become a better predictor of the season.

its not a points predictor, and has never claimed to be. It just gives a match by match snapshot of how we are doing at any given time taking into account the perceived difficulty of games played. There are too many variables to enable a prediction of all 38 games before a ball is kicked, and no one is expecting us not to win any away games, and only get 10 points away.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Best thread @Giraffe

My view is that the Euro target should be increased (and relegation floor reduced).

The last two years have seen a real drop off in points from the bottom three, 62 Vs 87 from 9 years prior. Doesn't feel like that'll change much next season. Also the top four have picked up a bit less, 314 vs 328. So there's about 28 points for the other 13 teams to fight over, averages two each. So to get into Europe it's getting harder, say +2 points.

It's not clear what league position gets Europe so it's a punt but sixth feels like should get you there. That's averaged 65 last two years and 63 for last eleven years.

Could argue it's more like 63-65 anything below is a bonus.

Relegation clearly isn't 40 but it's been the target for so long and doesn't feel like we need to focus on that for next years (fingers crossed)

You do realise the numbers are dictated by results against top and bottom half at home and away. It's not easy to change the targets with this model. And in my view, they're fine.

 

[Hampster Gull]

You do realise the numbers are dictated by results against top and bottom half at home and away. It's not easy to change the targets with this model. And in my view, they're fine.

I do, yes. That doesn't impact the analysis or my view. But others will different view of course.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

I do, yes. That doesn't impact the analysis or my view. But others will different view of course.

How would you track against 63 points, as you suggest?

 

[Motogull]

How would you track against 63 points, as you suggest?

'Budget' for 1 point home and away against the promoted sides would be a start.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

its not a points predictor, and has never claimed to be. It just gives a match by match snapshot of how we are doing at any given time taking into account the perceived difficulty of games played. There are too many variables to enable a prediction of all 38 games before a ball is kicked, and no one is expecting us not to win any away games, and only get 10 points away.

Ummm, it literally is a points predictor and claims to be...

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Ummm, it literally is a points predictor and claims to be...

Do you truly not get it yet or are you just being a silly sausage?

 

[nickbrighton]

Ummm, it literally is a points predictor and claims to be...

I disagree, @Giraffe first post says the "easiest way" (at least on paper) to get the points is to win the home games against the bottom 10 and draw the away games and so that is the basis for allocating points on the tracker. BUT it does not say they are the predicted results- I dont think anyone would predict we wouldnt get any away wins, or only beat the bottom ten at home-indeed would anyone ever actually predict we would beat any of the bottom 3 at home let alone all of the bottom 10

Its simply a (very good) guide as to overall progress not a wanna be crystal ball into actual results

 

[Questions]

Do a European qualification tracker next season. Nothing else….

 

[Weststander]

Do a European qualification tracker next season. Nothing else….

He‘s desperate to, but doesn’t want to tempt fate.

 

[warmleyseagull]

The past 15 Teams that missed out on Europe via leage position:

2024-25	8th	Brighton & Hove Albion	61pts
2023-24	7th	Newcastle United	60pts
2022-23	8th	Tottenham Hotspur	60pts
2021-22	8th	Leicester City	52pts
2020-21	8th	Arsenal	61pts
2019-20	7th	Wolverhampton Wanderers	59pts
2018-19	8th	Everton	54pts
2017-18	8th	Everton	49pts
2016-17	8th	Southampton	46pts
2015-16	8th	Liverpool	60pts
2014-15	8th	Swansea City	56pts
2013-14	7th	Manchester United	64pts
2012-13	6th	Everton	63pts
2011-12	7th	Everton	56pts
2010-11	6th	Liverpool	58pts

Only twice has the points tally been higher in 2012-13 & 2013-14

That is largely down to crap teams in bottom 3. The points they don't get are distributed among the remainder so the anti for Europe is raised. Even if Albion had hung on to 2-0 against Leicester and Wolves, the 65 points still would have been insufficient for Europe (and even if we had then lost by a less insufferable 4-0 at City Ground, then Forest would have missed out with 65).

I believe the simple algorithm of 1.7 ppg would be perfectly adequate for the tracker, but maybe less fun.

 

[Hampster Gull]

How would you track against 63 points, as you suggest?

We're not splitting the atom here. Anyway the brains behind the tracker is the boss, and he may be perfectly fine with it as it is. If he isn't he'll change it I guess

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Do a European qualification tracker next season. Nothing else….

That is a stupid idea.

Do a champions tracker next season. Nothing else.