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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)







C

crookie

Well-known member
Jun 14, 2013
3,441
Back in Sussex
Pavilionaire said:
The news about the depletion of Russian oil stocks further supports the view that if Trump were as committed to defending Ukraine as Biden was then Ukraine's best option would be to tough it out until Russia runs out of cash.

Putin is in a terrible bind now. He has a war economy that cannot be switched back to civilian production without a lot of short-term upheaval. He is losing soldiers who will be required to rebuild the Russian economy if peace comes. He has interest rates at 21% - so people and businesses can't afford to borrow. He has double-digit inflation at 10.3%, and no sign of Europe lifting sanctions any time soon.

I cannot see him being able to hold on to what he has for more than a year. Trump has been an absolute godsend for Putin, who doesn't appreciate just how weak the Russian position is.
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Spot on. How utterly demoralising for all those who can see this, but he can't, or probably more likely won't or doesn't want to
 










schmunk

schmunk

Well-used member
Jan 19, 2018
11,082
Mid mid mid Sussex


Eric the meek

Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,696
schmunk said:
Yes, but the sanctions are against private companies based in those countries listed, not their governments or state institutions.

We have similar concerns in the UK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y97k4w7llo
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It's a fair point. You're right.

The article you link says that the UK government has opened investigations against a number of UK companies suspected of breaking Russian oil sanctions.
So this may be a function of us not being very good at prosecutions, as the article mentions. More an enforcement issue perhaps?

Nevertheless, Sir Bill Browder says it is an embarrassment that there hasn't been a single prosecution. That was when the article was published in October 2024.

A brief google, and AI says there are still no prosecutions. Not good enough.
 


fly high

fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
2,356
in a house
Eric the meek said:
It's a fair point. You're right.

The article you link says that the UK government has opened investigations against a number of UK companies suspected of breaking Russian oil sanctions.
So this may be a function of us not being very good at prosecutions, as the article mentions. More an enforcement issue perhaps?

Nevertheless, Sir Bill Browder says it is an embarrassment that there hasn't been a single prosecution. That was when the article was published in October 2024.

A brief google, and AI says there are still no prosecutions. Not good enough.
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Think I read this article on here when it was first published. They did say it was very complicated so would take time, well we are still waiting.
 




fly high

fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
2,356
in a house
Eric the meek said:
Presumably this package is the same one that the UK imposed a few days ago. EU, well done for not taking too long over it.

Note the inclusion of Turkey in the list, which is a member of NATO and has been wanting to join the EU since before Brexit. It's a funny old world.
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More sanctions which should have been implemented long ago. I really don't understand why there are ANY sanctions left to be imposed.
 












peterward

peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
13,115
Eric the meek said:
I've always been a big fan of sanctions, even though Russia finds ways round them.

One day, they won't be able to find a way round them.
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This.

They will find ways to circumvent.

But...... it still does damage their economy and accelerates the damage. Plus, as we have seen, 3rd countries start getting jitters around secondary sanctions, like Chinese banks and Indian Oil refiners and have pulled the plug in certain areas of Russian trade.

Unfortunately it inst a knife to the heart, but slow death by a 1000 cuts.
 






fly high

fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
2,356
in a house
SouthSaxon said:
Worrying. I fear the Russians will succeed in downing a plane soon enough. Hybrid warfare continues unabated.

www.theguardian.com

Germany arrests three Ukrainians over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot

Prosecutors say men intended to attack German cargo transport by sending packages that would explode in transit
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Interesting they say they are Ukrainian nationals working for Russia. Are they Russian sympathisers or are they doing it under duress because their families are being held? Guess either way not good.
 


SouthSaxon

SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
974
fly high said:
Interesting they say they are Ukrainian nationals working for Russia. Are they Russian sympathisers or are they doing it under duress because their families are being held? Guess either way not good.
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I wondered the same thing, it could be Donbas separatists or it could people from occupied territory.
 


Nibbler

Nibbler

710 77345
Aug 12, 2014
256
Westdene
fly high said:
More sanctions which should have been implemented long ago. I really don't understand why there are ANY sanctions left to be imposed.
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Yesterday's Ukrainecast (What do we actually know about the Istanbul peace talks) addresses this question. It's something I was puzzled about and essentially it's due to various nations being wary of hurting their own economies.
 








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