[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

It’s just incompetence, the guy has never done this stuff before but probably acts like he’s the expert. In an administration like Trump’s, it’s unlikely people will be busting a gut to protect each other.

I was just about to write..."ok, but you'd think they'd bust a gut to protect US interests!"...but I get what you mean: it's each for himself, don't help Witless, just chuckle if he fails, don't suggest US interpreters to Vance or Trump as they'll probably just chew your head of.
What a mess, eh?

 

[raymondo]

I hope Trump listens to this

 

[Eric the meek]

I was just about to write..."ok, but you'd think they'd bust a gut to protect US interests!"...but I get what you mean: it's each for himself, don't help Witless, just chuckle if he fails, don't suggest US interpreters to Vance or Trump as they'll probably just chew your head of.
What a mess, eh?

In view of this mess, we don't, (and probably won't now that they will close ranks), know the extent of the incompetence and the implications.

I'm also beginning to wonder the extent to which we have mistaken the seeming 'pro-Russian' stance of the Trump administration, for good old fashioned incompetence, and Russia taking full advantage of it?

Edit: the previous sentence should read the other way round.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well, I knew they were clueless, but I didn't realise they were totally, absolutely, freaking clueless.

I have a feeling we'll be having the same discussion within 6 months.

 

[Eric the meek]

I have a feeling we'll be having the same discussion within 6 months.

Yes, OK, but you still don't expect a US peace envoy to rely on Kremlin interpreters in a high-level diplomacy meeting with Russians, in an attempt to head off Russian expansionism and save lives.

I remember seeing footage of one of his meetings with three Russians, and the presenter commented that against those three, there was just Witkoff, along with an interpreter. It didn't occur to me that the interpreter was also Russian. She sat alongside Witkoff as if to oppose the three Russian negotiators. I just assumed the interpreter was a member of Witkoff's staff. It think it was a reasonable conclusion to make.

 

[Triggaaar]

I remember seeing footage of one of his meetings with three Russians, and the presenter commented that against those three, there was just Witkoff, along with an interpreter. It didn't occur to me that the interpreter was also Russian. She sat alongside Witkoff as if to oppose the three Russian negotiators. I just assumed the interpreter was a member of Witkoff's staff. It think it was a reasonable conclusion to make.

Yes of course that's reasonable. But it's constant madness from Trump, so I can't say I'm surprised. I presume Witkoff is just there to read Trump's statement and take notes from Russia, it's not like he's going to come to any great agreement.

 

[SouthSaxon]

In view of this mess, we don't, (and probably won't now that they will close ranks), know the extent of the incompetence and the implications.

I'm also beginning to wonder the extent to which we have mistaken the seeming 'pro-Russian' stance of the Trump administration, for good old fashioned incompetence, and Russia taking full advantage of it?

Edit: the previous sentence should read the other way round.

I think it’s easy to see incompetence but read it as conspiracy. That doesn’t exclude the possibility of both, and there is some evidence that Trump has some dodgy Russian connections.

At the same time, I’m fairly certain that a lot of his “I’m on such great terms with Putin” muddied the waters but was actually just Trump bluster. I don’t buy the Krasnov kompromat thing, it just doesn’t fit with his narcissistic personality.

There’s also been a lot of assumption that of course Putin would want a deal with Trump, without any real evidence that this was the case.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes of course that's reasonable. But it's constant madness from Trump, so I can't say I'm surprised. I presume Witkoff is just there to read Trump's statement and take notes from Russia, it's not like he's going to come to any great agreement.

That sounds about right. I did notice that Witkoff met Russians on three occasions, indicating that his findings may have needed clarification after the first two meetings concluded. With hindsight, we might have spotted that something was up.

 

[Eric the meek]

I think it’s easy to see incompetence but read it as conspiracy. That doesn’t exclude the possibility of both, and there is some evidence that Trump has some dodgy Russian connections.

At the same time, I’m fairly certain that a lot of his “I’m on such great terms with Putin” muddied the waters but was actually just Trump bluster. I don’t buy the Krasnov kompromat thing, it just doesn’t fit with his narcissistic personality.

There’s also been a lot of assumption that of course Putin would want a deal with Trump, without any real evidence that this was the case.

Yes, agreed. I've never been a fan of the Krasnov thing either. That isn't to say that Russia hasn't got its fingers in MAGA though. If you watch the geopolitical Youtuber Peter Zeihan, he claims that there are members of the MAGA-base who parrot the Russian narrative. One of them is Tulsi Gabbard, and the other was someone I hadn't heard of.

Russia doesn't have to have a Krasnov in a high position to influence western policy. It just needs to steer the narrative. Drop a few social media posts about migrants etc.

 

[fly high]

I hope Trump listens to this

I very much doubt Trump listening, it's Saturday so on the golf course. Even if he listens later his view is the coalition of the willing are a bunch of no hoppers and not to be taken seriously.

 

[raymondo]

In view of this mess, we don't, (and probably won't now that they will close ranks), know the extent of the incompetence and the implications.

I'm also beginning to wonder the extent to which we have mistaken the seeming 'pro-Russian' stance of the Trump administration, for good old fashioned incompetence, and Russia taking full advantage of it?

Edit: the previous sentence should read the other way round.

You'd think at least SOMEONE in the Trump administration would watch Broe, Warburg, Reich, O'Brien, Francis etc etc to try to LEARN something and report to Trump or his cabinet that a number of intelligent commentators believe strongly that the Russians are : lying, don't want peace, genocidal, manipulative, anti US, planning later invasion of all of Ukraine then the rest of Europe etc etc. Maybe Tulsi Gabbard is the main 'person' to have Trump's ear, and maybe she's the main Russian puppet, although I believe there are a number. Remember, Trump, his sons, Musk have all had major investment money from Russia over the years (IIRC).

 

[raymondo]

I very much doubt Trump listening, it's Saturday so on the golf course. Even if he listens later his view is the coalition of the willing are a bunch of no hoppers and not to be taken seriously.

You are quite right. That was my optimism getting the better of me - I shall be on my guard next time .

 

[Eric the meek]

I've been aware of this video since yesterday, but hey, it's Konstantin, and it's 1 hour 20 mins = inaccessible.

So, TLDR, the Russian economy is cratering right now.

From around 6:00, there's a long list of industrial and agricultural output - all down compared to a year ago.

Then:

Income tax rate YOY 2024-2025, UP from 20% to 25%.
Income tax take YOY Months 1 and 2 2024 to 2025, DOWN -19%. Conclusion: businesses are folding, not selling, not making profits, layoffs = less tax taken.
(Note that this data is two months ago).

This is the canary in the coalmine.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin has announced that Russia and Ukraine should meet to negotiate a 'lasting peace'. - BBC.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Putin has announced that Russia and Ukraine should meet to negotiate a 'lasting peace'. - BBC.

Obfuscate and delay. The ceasefire ultimatum from Macron, Starmer, Tusk and Merz needed a response, but he didn’t want to say outright that he won’t cooperate. He convened the media, kept them waiting until 2am and then read them a statement.

Sky’s report (link) carried this quote from a Kremlin spokesman, two weeks after Putin declared his May 9th parade ceasefire without so much as an indirect negotiation:

You have to be in negotiations, direct negotiations, in order to find a way for a ceasefire. A simplistic approach towards the ceasefire is inappropriate.

Meanwhile, former Presidential stooge and current gobshite Medvedev says the quiet part loud on X:

 

[raymondo]

Putin has announced that Russia and Ukraine should meet to negotiate a 'lasting peace'. - BBC.

Putin is hilarious

 

[raymondo]

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's an 11 minute video from Darin Gerdes. One of his members/contacts was waiting for and watching Putin's speech.
There's good detail in it, which probably won't get reported on the BBC etc.

Putin has essentially ignored (but not ignored) the coalition of the willing, and wants to control the agenda, so has put forward his own idea for talks.
Note 'talks', not a ceasefire, so the war will continue.

 

[papachris]

I've just seen this. WTAF?

Amateur hour doesn't begin to describe it.

The first line maybe should say 'Putin's envoy' based on his actions/ behaviour so far since he's been in this position

 

[Eric the meek]

Obfuscate and delay. The ceasefire ultimatum from Macron, Starmer, Tusk and Merz needed a response, but he didn’t want to say outright that he won’t cooperate. He convened the media, kept them waiting until 2am and then read them a statement.

Sky’s report (link) carried this quote from a Kremlin spokesman, two weeks after Putin declared his May 9th parade ceasefire without so much as an indirect negotiation:



Meanwhile, former Presidential stooge and current gobshite Medvedev says the quiet part loud on X:

I took particular note that there was a substantial delay in Putin giving his speech in the middle of the night.

He may have delayed it for dramatic effect, but I wonder if there was disagreement behind the scenes, and the speech went through several iterations before it was deemed ready to be delivered.

Beneath the faux confidence and nonchalance, there may be a mad scramble going on.