[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Lots of activity over Crimea and the Black Sea. Russian air defences active near the Kerch Bridge.

See below - initial reports said this was a Russian helicopter downed.

 

[raymondo]

Chinese troops are going to march at the 9th May parade. WTF?

Wow...then they can fxck off with their offers of mediation and possible peacekeeping.
It's weird - North Koreans would be bad enough, but Chinese?

 

[raymondo]

Lots of activity over Crimea and the Black Sea. Russian air defences active near the Kerch Bridge.

See below - initial reports said this was a Russian helicopter downed.

A drone armed with missiles .
Denys Davydov reported yesterday on lots of Ukrainian activity over Crimea - said Ukraine had taken out more air defences and some local intelligence hub IIRC

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's a video of the Su-30 being destroyed.

'This is the first confirmed destruction of fixed wing aircraft by a naval USV'.

How far Ukraine have come.

 

[Eric the meek]

Excellent. Ukraine 'cannot guarantee the safety of foreign leaders in Moscow on May 9'.

The 72 hour ceasefire proposed by Putin is becoming the gift from heaven.

 

[Triggaaar]

Excellent. Ukraine 'cannot guarantee the safety of foreign leaders in Moscow on May 9'.

The 72 hour ceasefire proposed by Putin is becoming the gift from heaven.

I actually find that quite naïve from Ukraine. As I said at the time, they should have made the 30 day or nothing start earlier. Now Russia just has to agree, and then break the ceasefire as soon as their parade is over, and blame Ukraine for breaking the ceasefire.

 

[Eric the meek]

I actually find that quite naïve from Ukraine. As I said at the time, they should have made the 30 day or nothing start earlier. Now Russia just has to agree, and then break the ceasefire as soon as their parade is over, and blame Ukraine for breaking the ceasefire.

I would be very surprised if Ukraine have not factored that in. What they have done is sow doubt in Moscow throughout the lead up to May 9. They know that Moscow will be crawling with air defence and security and that an attack might risk a diplomatic disaster, either real or manufactured by Putin.

It looks like they are using the 72 hour ceasefire to make veiled threats to draw defences to Moscow, (e.g. 'Bring earplugs' - Budanov), while attacking other, less defended targets outside of the 72 hour timeframe and where the risk/reward ratio is more favourable.

Note that their statement allows them to attack Moscow up to May 7. By making their 30-day ceasefire earlier as you argue, this would prevent them from attacking targets which will have been denuded of their defences in favour of Moscow.

I don't think Moscow on May 9 is on their radar. If it is, why are they publishing it?

 

[peterward]

Lots of activity over Crimea and the Black Sea. Russian air defences active near the Kerch Bridge.

Yep Bridge was closed yesterday, and also reports Ukraine hit some space facility inside Russia that gets a lot of Russia satelitte info.

I would be very surprised if Ukraine have not factored that in. What they have done is sow doubt in Moscow throughout the lead up to May 9. They know that Moscow will be crawling with air defence and security and that an attack might risk a diplomatic disaster, either real or manufactured by Putin.

It looks like they are using the 72 hour ceasefire to make veiled threats to draw defences to Moscow, (e.g. 'Bring earplugs' - Budanov), while attacking other, less defended targets outside of the 72 hour timeframe and where the risk/reward ratio is more favourable.

Note that their statement allows them to attack Moscow up to May 7. By making their 30-day ceasefire earlier as you argue, this would prevent them from attacking targets which will have been denuded of their defences in favour of Moscow.

I don't think Moscow on May 9 is on their radar. If it is, why are they publishing it?

From regular footie related poster, to layman military strategist in 3 short years.

You're getting pretty astute at this stuff!

 

[Eric the meek]

Yep Bridge was closed yesterday, and also reports Ukraine hit some space facility inside Russia that gets a lot of Russia satelitte info.

From regular footie related poster, to layman military strategist in 3 short years.

You're getting pretty astute at this stuff!

Haha - thank you. But the caveat is that you and I don't know if I'm right yet !

We, and Russia, will find out in 6 days time, when if we see Moscow ablaze, I won't mind being proven wrong !

 

[Triggaaar]

I would be very surprised if Ukraine have not factored that in. What they have done is sow doubt in Moscow throughout the lead up to May 9. They know that Moscow will be crawling with air defence and security and that an attack might risk a diplomatic disaster, either real or manufactured by Putin.

It looks like they are using the 72 hour ceasefire to make veiled threats to draw defences to Moscow, (e.g. 'Bring earplugs' - Budanov), while attacking other, less defended targets outside of the 72 hour timeframe and where the risk/reward ratio is more favourable.

Note that their statement allows them to attack Moscow up to May 7. By making their 30-day ceasefire earlier as you argue, this would prevent them from attacking targets which will have been denuded of their defences in favour of Moscow.

If Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, then the parades can go ahead with no concerns.

I don't agree that Putin will have removed defences from the front, because if Moscow know they'll be attacked, then defence won't help, so the parade will not go ahead. You can't have a parade while being attacked by the enemy, regardless whether or not you have all of your defences setup.

As things stand, the parade will go ahead and the war will continue immediately afterwards, just as Putin wants. I don't see how giving him his wish is a good thing.

I don't think Moscow on May 9 is on their radar. If it is, why are they publishing it?

I also don't think they're going to attack the parade, but I think their best choices would have been
a) getting a ceasefire for the week before the parade, if they want one
b) not having a ceasefire at all, so that Putin can't go ahead with the parades

 

[Boys 9d]

Bear in mind that there will possibly also be a Victory Parade (WW2) in Kyiv.

 

[raymondo]

Here's a video of the Su-30 being destroyed.

'This is the first confirmed destruction of fixed wing aircraft by a naval USV'.

How far Ukraine have come.

And I'm guessing a jet won't pick up a sea drone on its radar...or im way off track

 

[Eric the meek]

If Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, then the parades can go ahead with no concerns.

I don't agree that Putin will have removed defences from the front, because if Moscow know they'll be attacked, then defence won't help, so the parade will not go ahead. You can't have a parade while being attacked by the enemy, regardless whether or not you have all of your defences setup.

As things stand, the parade will go ahead and the war will continue immediately afterwards, just as Putin wants. I don't see how giving him his wish is a good thing.

Moscow doesn't know they'll be attacked, but is afraid they will be. Defences will - of course - be in place on May 9, in case they do come under attack. They can't afford to do anything else.

I can't comment on what Putin would do about the parade if he was under attack. To me, that is a complete unknown.

 

[Triggaaar]

Moscow doesn't know they'll be attacked, but is afraid they will be.

Only if Ukraine don't agree to a ceasefire. If they do, then Russia knows they won't be attacked.

Defences will - of course - be in place on May 9, in case they do come under attack. They can't afford to do anything else.

I don't agree that Russia's frontline will be weakened by this.

 

[Eric the meek]

Only if Ukraine don't agree to a ceasefire. If they do, then Russia knows they won't be attacked.



I don't agree that Russia's frontline will be weakened by this.

I'm not sure what Russia knows or doesn't know, or whether it is dependent on Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire. Too many extrapolations for me.

Regarding the front line, I haven't mentioned it in this discussion? I would have thought it likely that most of Russia's anti-aircraft systems are near the front line, but there are other places where they might be - Crimea (which has lost a couple in recent months), Kerch, and Valdai Palace, where there is at least one, and I think, two.

 

[Eric the meek]

I also don't think they're going to attack the parade, but I think their best choices would have been
a) getting a ceasefire for the week before the parade, if they want one
b) not having a ceasefire at all, so that Putin can't go ahead with the parades

I agree with that.

I'm beginning to wonder if Ukraine keep offering Putin a 30 day ceasefire, precisely because he doesn't want one. Either he believes he's winning, or he has to keep on fighting to stop the troops returning home with their horror stories. .

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm not sure what Russia knows or doesn't know, or whether it is dependent on Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire. Too many extrapolations for me.

Extrapolations? If Ukraine agree to a ceasefire for the 9th May, then they won't attack. That's not some weird convoluted calculation.

Regarding the front line, I haven't mentioned it in this discussion?

You talked about Russia moving defences to Moscow, making other targets more vulnerable, so whatever other targets you think will be more vulnerable, I'm not so sure they will be, as I don't think Moscow will need to worry if Ukraine agree to a ceasefire.

 

[Eric the meek]

Extrapolations? If Ukraine agree to a ceasefire for the 9th May, then they won't attack. That's not some weird convoluted calculation.




You talked about Russia moving defences to Moscow, making other targets more vulnerable, so whatever other targets you think will be more vulnerable, I'm not so sure they will be, as I don't think Moscow will need to worry if Ukraine agree to a ceasefire.

I didn't explain it very well. 'If Ukraine agree to a ceasefire for May 9, then they won't attack'. I'm on Ukraine's side, and my answer to that is....probably not.
But what if you are Russian? What if you've been busy denazifying Ukraine for 3 years, and then the Nazis (in your Russian eyes) declare a ceasefire? Do you believe them, or do you move a few anti-aircraft systems to Moscow, just in case?

Jake Broe, in his latest video which you posted this morning, the very first thing he said was 'It's nearly May 9, and Putin is terrified that Ukraine will sabotage Russia's Victory Day'.

Why is he terrified? Because he judges others by his own shocking standards. He thinks Ukraine will attack him, because that is precisely what he would do. So when you say, 'I don't think Russia will need to worry if Ukraine agree to a ceasefire', you need to think not like a rational, honest Brit, but like an unscrupulous, dishonest lying Russian.

Only then will you realise how worried Moscow is. Ukrainians realise this, and they are taking advantage of it. Enjoy it as it unfolds next week.

 

[Eric the meek]

And I'm guessing a jet won't pick up a sea drone on its radar...or im way off track

This could be a red herring (apologies if so), but I googled what you asked, and I came up with this:
The article is a year old, and so relates to radar on Russian naval vessels, so doesn't answer your query about radar on jets.
(Old git googling stuff he doesn't know anything about).

Plastic Magura V5 Sea Drones are Invisible to Radars, Says Chief Operator | Defense Express

Group-13 reveals previously unknown specifications and features of the Magura V5, which has evolved

en.defence-ua.com

 

[Triggaaar]

I didn't explain it very well. 'If Ukraine agree to a ceasefire for May 9, then they won't attack'. I'm on Ukraine's side, and my answer to that is....probably not.
But what if you are Russian? What if you've been busy denazifying Ukraine for 3 years, and then the Nazis (in your Russian eyes) declare a ceasefire? Do you believe them, or do you move a few anti-aircraft systems to Moscow, just in case?

Well Russia will certainly have anti-aircraft systems in Moscow already, so those won't be removed. I wouldn't be surprised if they add more, but I don't think they'll significantly weaken anywhere else (hope to be proven wrong there).

'If you are Russian' doesn't come into it, it's only what Putin thinks, and he knows the objective wasn't to de-nazify Ukraine. Ukraine cannot agree to a ceasefire, and then attack foreign leaders etc in Moscow.

Jake Broe, in his latest video which you posted this morning, the very first thing he said was 'It's nearly May 9, and Putin is terrified that Ukraine will sabotage Russia's Victory Day'.

Why is he terrified?

Firstly, I imagine that 'terrified' is hyperbole. But he will be worried, because no ceasefire has been agreed. If, however, Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, I don't think he'll be particularly worried. I hope Ukraine don't agree to one.

Because he judges others by his own shocking standards. He thinks Ukraine will attack him, because that is precisely what he would do. So when you say, 'I don't think Russia will need to worry if Ukraine agree to a ceasefire', you need to think not like a rational, honest Brit, but like an unscrupulous, dishonest lying Russian.

I don't mind if I'm wrong, but I disagree. Putin has played the West for fools for over a decade, because he correctly calculated that we were too cautious to stop his aggression. Had he judged us by his own standards, he wouldn't have been so bold. I don't think he sees his enemies as like him.