[Politics] Donald Trump, US President

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Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 175 42.3%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 216 52.2%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    414
  • Poll closed .


Curious Orange

Punxsatawney Phil
Jul 5, 2003
10,507
On NSC for over two decades...
It would of course entail some major changes. Rather than single member constituencies, we'd need larger, multi-member ones.

The larger multi-member constituencies would break that link between the MP and their community that we currently have (yes, I'm aware some constituencies have 'invisible' MPs). Thanks for explaining how independents could be included though, that was interesting.
 




Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
72,410
Withdean area
For now. However, despite everything, the populist grift continues and they are currently leading in the national opinion polls.

4 years is a long time to the GE, but I guarantee you that it’ll be 4 years of misinformation spread by shady sources and lapped up by the 50+ demographic who will believe anything they read on Facebook.

I'm quietly optimistic. In this case FPTP (agreeing with @Harry Wilson's tackle) is the UK's saviour. For a party containing Tice and Putin's mate Farage to be the biggest party in a swathe of seats, I just cannot see it.

99% of that demographic I know (I know a lot of folk through family and clients ... a wide cross section, not just Lefties in Brighton) would never vote Reform. But I realise I don't what goes on in Barnsley and Kings Lynn!
 


Bakero

Languidly clinical
Oct 9, 2010
15,605
Almería
This is dangerous. Really sinister and really dangerous. I hope our current government is strong enough to resist the U.S. trying to blackmail us into diminishing women’s rights over their own bodies.

I f***ing hate the U.S. government and what they are trying to do to the world.

They are no better than the Nazis. And twice as powerful.



Hopefully, the UK gov stand firm on this. Trade deals aren't the be all and end all
 


Bakero

Languidly clinical
Oct 9, 2010
15,605
Almería
The larger multi-member constituencies would break that link between the MP and their community that we currently have (yes, I'm aware some constituencies have 'invisible' MPs). Thanks for explaining how independents could be included though, that was interesting.

I'm not sure it'd break the link. In fact, constituents would have more options. You could contact the MP whose views align more closely with your own. Or you could get in touch with one who has specialist knowledge on a particular subject.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
8,305
They are no better than the Nazis. And twice as powerful.


The Nazis exterminated 6 million Jews and other minorities in gas chambers or shot them on sight and buried them in mass graves - it diminishes the unique experience of the Holocaust when equating it with Trump’s policies.

I hate him and the impact he is having on the world as much as you do, maybe even more given it impacts me personally but America is not Nazi Germany by any standards yet.

I agree however with where you are coming from - There are certainly elements of fascism ( and red flags of dictatorial government ) in what we are seeing ( eg attempts to muzzle the press, limit free speech and targeting ethnic minorities, centralising power in the executive etc) but there are also elements of the far right populism we see in the rest of Europe as well as a strong unilateral aspect to his foreign policy.
 




Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
59,669
Faversham
I'm quietly optimistic. In this case FPTP (agreeing with @Harry Wilson's tackle) is the UK's saviour. For a party containing Tice and Putin's mate Farage to be the biggest party in a swathe of seats, I just cannot see it.

99% of that demographic I know (I know a lot of folk through family and clients ... a wide cross section, not just Lefties in Brighton) would never vote Reform. But I realise I don't what goes on in Barnsley and Kings Lynn!
1. Ferret down trouser competitions
2. Wife swapping.
???
 


The Clamp

Well-known member
Jan 11, 2016
27,139
West is BEST
The Nazis exterminated 6 million Jews and other minorities in gas chambers or shot them on sight and buried them in mass graves - it diminishes the unique experience of the Holocaust when equating it with Trump’s policies.

I hate him and the impact he is having on the world as much as you do, maybe even more given it impacts me personally but America is not Nazi Germany by any standards yet.

I agree however with where you are coming from - There are certainly elements of fascism ( and red flags of dictatorial government ) in what we are seeing ( eg attempts to muzzle the press, limit free speech and targeting ethnic minorities, centralising power in the executive etc) but there are also elements of the far right populism we see in the rest of Europe as well as a strong unilateral aspect to his foreign policy.
The Nazis didn’t start with the Holocaust.
 


Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
868
I'm quietly optimistic. In this case FPTP (agreeing with @Harry Wilson's tackle) is the UK's saviour. For a party containing Tice and Putin's mate Farage to be the biggest party in a swathe of seats, I just cannot see it.

99% of that demographic I know (I know a lot of folk through family and clients ... a wide cross section, not just Lefties in Brighton) would never vote Reform. But I realise I don't what goes on in Barnsley and Kings Lynn!
With all respect to @Harry Wilson's tackle , he is not an expert on this (unless he's hiding something). Electoral Calculus are experts and predict that they only need 31% to win a parliamentary majority. That would be a horrible scenario.

The only thing that FPTP is good for is preventing smaller parties from being properly represented. Whilst it's LOLs that Reform only have 4 MPs despite winning 14% of the vote, this just feeds into the narrative of them being targetted by the establishment.
 




Mellor 3 Ward 4

Well-known member
Jul 27, 2004
10,542
saaf of the water
With all respect to @Harry Wilson's tackle , he is not an expert on this (unless he's hiding something). Electoral Calculus are experts and predict that they only need 31% to win a parliamentary majority. That would be a horrible scenario.

The only thing that FPTP is good for is preventing smaller parties from being properly represented. Whilst it's LOLs that Reform only have 4 MPs despite winning 14% of the vote, this just feeds into the narrative of them being targetted by the establishment.
But it works both ways.

Greens got just under 7% of the vote : only 4 MPs (0.6 % seat share)

The system will never change though - it works in favour of the big two Parties - why would they change it?
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
8,305
The Nazis didn’t start with the Holocaust.

No but it was obvious you were making comparisons to the persecution of the Jews in Germany since that is how most people identify’Nazism’ - that persecution began with Hitlers election as Chancellor in 1933 - what immediately followed was the implementation of an antisemitic regime of laws, rule and regulations that took away the rights of LEGAL German citizens.

The first concentration camp was opened a Dachau in 1933 and the Nuremberg Laws implemented in 1935. Following Kristallnacht in 1938 - the camps were largely used to intern the Jewish population.

My point is, while Trump presents singular elements of his agenda that can appropriately be compared to Nazism and him to Hitler, if only as a warning we could go there again, which I mentioned above, and Trump himself is probably fully aware of emulating some of the rhetoric from that era, describing America as being as bad/more ’powerful’ than Nazi Germany diminishes the historical value of that very dark period of history to which most people associate with the Holocaust.

Trump is not Adolf Hitler - he has not embarked on a systematic slaughter of a population and his rhetoric around Greenland etc is just that - rhetoric of a belligerent narcissist.
 
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Brian Munich

teH lulZ
Jul 7, 2008
868
But it works both ways.

Greens got just under 7% of the vote : only 4 MPs (0.6 % seat share)

The system will never change though - it works in favour of the big two Parties - why would they change it?
Your right; it is wrong. Much as I dislike the Reform party, they should have circa 70-80 MPs in Westminster, and counterintuitive as it is, this would probably work against their narrative of being anti-establishment. Likewise Greens should have 40 odd MPs.

FPTP probably won't change, unfortunately. However, it's benefits are not necessarily limited to the two tradtional big parties. Any party that starts to poll in the mid to high 20s will benefit from a seat count greater than their percentage of vote, and that includes Reform.
 




Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
21,152
Eastbourne
Not correct. 19 percent of 18-24 year-olds who turned out in 2025 voted for Reform. That's not the same as 19% of their support - in fact it's nowhere near. Doing the maths: Only about 65% of an approx 3.5m 18-24 yo are even registered to vote, and the turnout in this group was 37% in 2024. For 19% that equates to 160,000 votes out of Reform's total of 4.1m = 4%

For the 25-55 group (20% pro Reform) there are approx 15m adults and they're 83% registered but only turned out at 48% in 2024 giving 1.2m reform votes - 29%. And I'm guessing that most of these will be in the 40-55 range as opposed the 25-40 range.

Like I said, the vast majority of their targetted support will be the 50+ group, over 90% of whom are registered and who reliably turnout at close to 70%.
Well it is correct in that I said 'Reform Supporters'. I am dubious of the need to keep pointing out age as I feel it is often couched with hints of barely concealed resentment. Surely if the lines are drawn so clearly then any wavering 'oldies' may think twice if they feel the message they are getting from the other side is alienating? It is also sobering that given the apparent disparity of opportunity for the younger generation (I have two newly qualified graduees at home) that they should be so poorly represented in the voting process. This is something they are almost wholly responsible for and if mobilised, they could be a voice to be reckoned with that could in the end be of benefit to their plight.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
8,305








Curious Orange

Punxsatawney Phil
Jul 5, 2003
10,507
On NSC for over two decades...
I'm not sure it'd break the link. In fact, constituents would have more options. You could contact the MP whose views align more closely with your own. Or you could get in touch with one who has specialist knowledge on a particular subject.

If you only have contact with the member whose views align to your own then nothing will change. MPs need to be exposed to the opinions and needs of all their constituents irrespective of their political leanings - a perfect example of where DEI is a good thing as it happens.
 


SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
894
In the Senate, Cory Booker has been giving a protest speech on the damage being done by Trump et al.

He started at 7pm last night and has been speaking continuously for over 15 hours.

Which is impressive in its way - I start getting croaky if I have to talk for more than about 90 minutes. But other than delaying some Senate stuff, I’m not sure what he aims to achieve.

As per the Meat Puppets, “who needs action when you’ve got words?”
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
8,305
’Liberation Day’ tomorrow and markets are becoming very volatile

Trump latest: US president 'considering tariffs on all countries' as alarm raised over UK impact​



Stock markets reacting
 




The Clamp

Well-known member
Jan 11, 2016
27,139
West is BEST
No but it was obvious you were making comparisons to the persecution of the Jews in Germany since that is how most people identify’Nazism’ - that persecution began with Hitlers election as Chancellor in 1933 - what immediately followed was the implementation of an antisemitic regime of laws, rule and regulations that took away the rights of LEGAL German citizens.

The first concentration camp was opened a Dachau in 1933 and the Nuremberg Laws implemented in 1935. Following Kristallnacht in 1938 - the camps were largely used to intern the Jewish population.

My point is, while Trump presents singular elements of his agenda that can appropriately be compared to Nazism and him to Hitler, if only as a warning we could go there again, which I mentioned above, and Trump himself is probably fully aware of emulating some of the rhetoric from that era, describing America as being as bad/more ’powerful’ than Nazi Germany diminishes the historical value of that very dark period of history to which most people associate with the Holocaust.

Trump is not Adolf Hitler - he has not embarked on a systematic slaughter of a population and his rhetoric around Greenland etc is just that - rhetoric of a belligerent narcissist.
No I wasn’t. I was alluding to the taking over of democracy by a totalitarian government.

It’s you that made the assumption I was drawing a comparison to the Holocaust. Which I wasn’t.
 


Bakero

Languidly clinical
Oct 9, 2010
15,605
Almería
If you only have contact with the member whose views align to your own then nothing will change. MPs need to be exposed to the opinions and needs of all their constituents irrespective of their political leanings - a perfect example of where DEI is a good thing as it happens.

Note the word "could". The point is you'd have options.
 


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