[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

Rare earths deal incoming for China?

As China holds so much of it, it would make strategic sense for them to try and curtail US from getting it.

It would also give Ukraine a little more leverage with another option.

Right now they're being treated awfully

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Here's a comment and a response on a thread I chanced upon. 'Grok' is Musk's own AI Assistant apparently. The two folk in the dialogue raise the possibility of Trump calling for Martial Law in the US at a key point...therefore preventing elections for as long as he determines.
Anyone on here think this is a ridiculous possibility? I don't any more.
Here's the brief chat:

""I asked Musk’s AI Grok what the chances are of Trump declaring martial law in 2025
Conclusion
There’s a 20% chance Trump declares martial law in 2025, based on current trends and historical context as of March 8, 2025. This is speculative and could shift dramatically with new events—say, a major protest or legal ruling. For now, it’s a possibility worth watching, but not a probable outcome without a significant catalyst. What do you think might push this higher or lower?
10 Mar 2025, 15:49 · · Mastodon for iOS · 1 · 6


10 Mar

FreeBall@charly22@snooker.uk.to
@CheRosach
Yes, I think it may be likely to happen as the regime is intentionally creating chaos by tanking the economy while weakening the country's ability to react.
When riots break out(and they will), that will be a welcome a reason to declare martial law and sending the National Guard into the cities. Of course you can't expect any election to be held under such circumstances, so Trump and his gang will stay in power. ""

Having put my cards on the table earlier, you'll know that I don't find this in the least surprising. I don't think elections will get rid of Trump and his cohorts.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

I'm not sure how I feel about this. At first glance, it may actually be a good thing.

China offers EU its participation in peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine

China held informal talks in Brussels about joining the "Coalition of the Willing," which is forming a peacekeeping contingent to be sent to Ukraine, Die Welt reports, announcing the material with reference to diplomatic sources in the Sunday supplement of Welt am Sonntag.

en.interfax.com.ua

I thought about China earlier today, funnily enough. My enemy's enemy is my friend?

 

[Eric the meek]

Paul Warburg's latest is interesting as ever.

I took note that he said around 80% of Russia's oil exports go through the Baltic and the Black Sea, and that Germany has seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker Eventin.

I googled the volumes; here is what AI came up with:

Data from September 2023.

• Black Sea Exports: About 22% of Russia's total oil exports were shipped from Black Sea ports.
• Baltic Sea Exports: The majority, 57% by volume, of Russia's oil exports were shipped from Baltic Sea ports.
• Pacific Ports: 16% of Russia's oil exports originated from Pacific ports.
• Arctic Ports: 4% of Russia's oil exports originated from Arctic ports.

Conclusion: there is plenty that Germany and Scandinavia can do to disrupt exports through the Baltic, and plenty that Turkey can do to put a complete stop to them through the Bosphorus.

 

[Eric the meek]

I thought about China earlier today, funnily enough. My enemy's enemy is my friend?

Indeed. You would also have thought that with Chinese peacekeeping forces on the ground, it might mean a lower chance of Russia trying indiscriminate missiles/drones on them? (I realise this is Russia we're talking about).

 

[raymondo]

He's very good at taking an oft mentioned topic and going through it with rigorous analysis .
I didn't know Germany had seized a shadow vessel

 

[vegster]

Vegster, it might be worth observing, that when you began this thread three and a quarter years ago, none of us could have foreseen the twists and turns the war and the peace would take.

Here we are today, with a form of 'peace' on the horizon, albeit a peace which rewards the aggressor and punishes the victim, and which goes against the grain of natural justice. Nevertheless, a ceasefire with a bloodied Russia only holding 20% of Ukraine.

But Ukraine is very much still alive. Europe has woken up. And I suspect that Russia is considerably weaker than it would like us to believe.

The war isn't over.

Yes, lots of changes and swings in fortune but there are two things that stand out as major shocks in this illegal invasion. 1, the incredible and remarkable unity of Ukrainian people as they continue to fight despite the odds and 2, the utter horror of the US under Trump abandoning its allies and morals.

Yes, it's not over and times are tough but I think Ukraine will fight on with or without Zelensky and Russia will collapse without Putin.

 

[raymondo]

Indeed. You would also have thought that with Chinese peacekeeping forces on the ground, it might mean a lower chance of Russia trying indiscriminate missiles/drones on them? (I realise this is Russia we're talking about).

Yes, that's likely I think

 

[SouthSaxon]

Phillips O'brien latest.

Weekend Update #125: The Trump-Putin Call; Stop Being Shocked!

An "Energy" Only Ceasefire Makes No Sense; Stop Being Shocked 2—Witkoff Speaks

open.substack.com

This is an excellent analysis, thanks for sharing. Sums up a frustration I have with a lot of the general media coverage.

A lot of them are really struggling to accept that what they are seeing is simply reality and not some grand strategy master plan or temporary aberration.

Trump supports Russia. It is clear and obvious.

Europe doesn’t have to prepare for a future without American leadership, because that is the present reality.

 

[Triggaaar]

Indeed. You would also have thought that with Chinese peacekeeping forces on the ground, it might mean a lower chance of Russia trying indiscriminate missiles/drones on them?

China and Russia agreed a union with no limits, so I doubt Ukraine would want Chinese troops in Ukraine.

 

[raymondo]

This is an excellent analysis, thanks for sharing. Sums up a frustration I have with a lot of the general media coverage.

A lot of them are really struggling to accept that what they are seeing is simply reality and not some grand strategy master plan or temporary brain aberration.

Trump supports Russia. It is clear and obvious.

Europe doesn’t have to prepare for a future without American leadership, because that is the present reality.

Exactly, it's NOW, and the mainstream media also needs to talk in that way.

 

[raymondo]

I wonder where Witless/Wankoff's Russian sympathies come from.
View attachment 198947

Good research

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Good research

Thanks to my (wonderful) wife.

 

[lasvegan]

Stupid trolling post.

Yep, 3 years of war, hundreds of thousands dead and nobody does anything about it. Europe funds Russian war effort by buying their fossil fuels, and spends less on Ukraines defense while doing so.

But we all know who’s fault it is, the only one to bring the warring factions together to try to end this madness.

Don’t be so Angry.

 

[Eric the meek]

Thanks to my (wonderful) wife.

Much appreciated. It's a significant angle which hadn't occurred to anyone else to go and research.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yep, 3 years of war, hundreds of thousands dead
...
Don’t be so Angry.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yep, 3 years of war, hundreds of thousands dead and nobody does anything about it. Europe funds Russian war effort by buying their fossil fuels, and spends less on Ukraines defense while doing so.

But we all know who’s fault it is, the only one to bring the warring factions together to try to end this madness.

Don’t be so Angry.

They're not warring 'factions'. One is led by a genocidal tyrant who invaded a peaceful neighbouring country. Ukraine has no choice but to fight, otherwise it will cease to exist.

 

[lasvegan]

I don’t know why we let Americans on here to be honest. Especially this redneck weirdo
The majority of them seem to be thick as mince - with no idea of what goes on anywhere else
Very similar to the hardcore Reform supporters here in the UK - just deep down stupid - influenced by a few billionaires to believe that it’s not the billionaires who have made them stupid.

People who think like you, typically left wing elitist snobs who think they know better than everyone else, are exactly the reason why Trump got elected In the first place. We’re sick and tired of you and your politics.

You know absolutely nothing about America.

 

[lasvegan]

Well edited, you could get a job with the mainstream media.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Part 3 of the Krasnov story! https://open.substack.com/pub/micha...?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4shdhp