[Sussex] Storm Ciaran on its way or here?

[Papa Lazarou]

Up on the north Kent coast, some of the leaves on my trees have blown off, and are all over my lawn. I wasn't expecting that, this autumn.

We are going to follow the advice of the head of the coastguard this morning, and head off later in search of Big Waves. I think that's what he was advising.

That's what I would do.

 

[Peacehaven Wild Kids]

North Street presently closed, allegedly something to do with the Boots roof.

 

[Cordwainer]

The Adur binmen collected my rubbish as normal. I heard the lorry as I laid in bed.

I guess the conditions over in B&H must have been much, much worse this morning for their binmen. Can't be too careful can you.

BnH binmen are remarkable creatures..we get a lot of collections missed due to one bs reason or another. One of them once had a go at me for my bin contents being too ‘dusty’ and possibly causing them breathing difficulties, all the time with a fag hanging out of his gob

 

[raymondo]

Does that change the pitch of the sound to something more normal? It doesn't claim that in the advert.

It's not in the ad but read the enclosed advice sheet (very small font so older people are unable to read it) carefully. Gaviscon is of course in the key of G, Alka Seltzer in A etc etc.

 

[raymondo]

It has been pretty quiet in Guildford, just rain. Mrs Orange drove to work in Reading earlier and reported a swift drive as all the roads were clear.

...and the wind was from the East

 

[Eric the meek]

My take on this is that climate change is a step change in the annual pattern in qualitative or quantitative terms, measurable by averaging, and determinable only by accumulating many years' worth of data.

Weather, however is what happens during a day.

But you knew that

Don't you come on here with your thinly disguised accusation of recency bias ! If we all made such observations, the whole climate change industry would collapse overnight.

I've only recently managed to embrace climate change as a thing, after decades of asking the question 'how do we know we aren't in an interglacial?'

Please don't make me flip-flop again. I'm approaching the finishing line and I'd like a bit of peace in my dotage.

 

[Machiavelli]

Don't you come on here with your thinly disguised accusation of recency bias ! If we all made such observations, the whole climate change industry would collapse overnight.

I've only recently managed to embrace climate change as a thing, after decades of asking the question 'how do we know we aren't in an interglacial?'

Please don't make me flip-flop again. I'm approaching the finishing line and I'd like a bit of peace in my dotage.

I'm not a geographer, but isn't the holocene an interglacial in the first place? And, relatedly, the anthropocene has disrupted the glacial-interglacial cycle?

 

[Muzzman]

Obviously can only go by personal experience, but it hasn't been that bad in Seaford. I've seen reports comparing this to the storm in 1987, but that storm surge felt far worse than this.

in 1987, trees were down all over the place, the sides of houses completely exposed, a thick film of salt covered all the windows and my cat spent the night hiding under my mum's china cabinet with his fur up on end like you only see in cartoons.

This storm is just a bit blowy.

 

[1066familyman]

Call me an over cautious old ninny, but I’m not taking the dog for his usual run on the beach!

 

[Hotchilidog]

Had a tree down in my garden. Luckily got someone to make it safe pretty quickly.

 

[Curious Orange]

This is certainly not like the Great Storm of '87 at the moment. Immediately after that I can remember traveling down to Brighton from Dorking past whole swathes of woodland that had been flattened.

As an aside, in '87, the morning after the storm I woke up to Crazy Nights by Kiss playing on Radio Mercury.

 

[Guinness Boy]

View attachment 169071

Looks just like my mate's Cocker who would actually be mad enough to do that for fun.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm not a geographer, but isn't the holocene an interglacial in the first place? And, relatedly, the anthropocene has disrupted the glacial-interglacial cycle?

Are you suggesting that all those years I asked the question 'how do you know we aren't in an interglacial', it was based on no empirical evidence whatsoever, and that it contradicted the very degree course I took? That a non-geographer can know more than a geographer?

If you had known me in my wilderness years, from 1979-1982, you would conclude that this is quite possible. Probable even.

To be fair, I have no recollection at all of studying the holocene and or the anthropocene, which I hadn't even heard of.
So I'm going to plead ignorance.

 

[Bozza]

....and just like that, BOSH, he's live...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Obviously can only go by personal experience, but it hasn't been that bad in Seaford. I've seen reports comparing this to the storm in 1987, but that storm surge felt far worse than this.

in 1987, trees were down all over the place, the sides of houses completely exposed, a thick film of salt covered all the windows and my cat spent the night hiding under my mum's china cabinet with his fur up on end like you only see in cartoons.

This storm is just a bit blowy.

That's because that hit land and travelled over the land. This storm hit Brittany, Cornwall and the Channel Islands and has travelled up the Channel to the North Sea. We've avoided the damage Northern France has experienced, but there are photos on the net if you want to find them.

If anyone is travelling on the A264, there's problems with flooding.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

 

[beorhthelm]

What is a fact is that there is considerably more energy in the system due to the warming climate. Given the intensity of storms (and rain) is a product of the strength of the polar jet stream, which itself is driven by the temperature differential (in this case across North America) then it's hard not to conclude that a percentage of the severity of storm Ciarán can be attributed to climate change.

But that's just speculation on my part. I do have time for experts, and I'll wait to see what they say.

there's a problem with that: if you have a generally warmer atmoshpere, with the poles warming, there is less differential. the case is made that the jet stream fluctuating more, with more varied weather, because of this. we cant have both a faster jetstream due to high differential and more variable path because there is less. it might be in the telling of the technical details, getting dumbed down for popular consumption. but they might also be telling porkies, like when some scientist* pops up telling us the gulf stream is about to collapse.

*usually in a completely unrelated field.

 

[Brok]

....and just like that, BOSH, he's live...

This is strangely addictive...

 

[Muzzman]

This is strangely addictive...

I had to turn it off because I wasn't get any work done.

 

[rippleman]

This is certainly not like the Great Storm of '87 at the moment. Immediately after that I can remember traveling down to Brighton from Dorking past whole swathes of woodland that had been flattened.

As an aside, in '87, the morning after the storm I woke up to Crazy Nights by Kiss playing on Radio Mercury.

Nope - it's certainly no 1987 and the weather in Worthing yesterday was far worse than it is today.

Just more media frenzy.

BTW does anybody know why first the BBC and now other media outlets started giving storms names? I can understand why CBeebies might do it for the young 'uns but R4 ffs? A storm is a weather event not a person or pet.

Giving a storm a name tells me NOTHING about the storm. How bad is it? Is it a windy storm? Or a rain storm? When will it hit? How long will it last? How blowy will it be? Is it going to be bad enough to cause damage?

None of those questions are answered by some dimlow with nothing better to do trying to give a storm a persona by giving it a name.