[Albion] 6 % chance of finishing in top 4

[Neville's Breakfast]

How will Premier League unfold according to data?

Will Arsenal be champions again and will Liverpool make the top four? BBC Sport looks at what the data predicts for May.

www.bbc.co.uk

Sounds about right.

 

[Bozza]

FiveThirtyEight put it at 25%, which is a lower forecast probability than before Liverpool remembered how to play football.

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[Stat Brother]

Many a talking head on the Football Weekly pod have our top 4 chances considerably higher.

 

[Swansman]

There's an awful lot of games left. 6% seems about right.

If its going to happen, results against the other top teams needs to improve. Crushing West Ham, Southampton, Everton etc. takes you quite far but if top 4 is going to be the case the boys need to start getting more points against top 10 opposition.

 

[Official Old Man]

Try it yourself. A bit earlier than normal and we don't have to worry about the bottom half of the league.
I make it 5th with Spurs 6th and Newcastle the team to drop out at 7th. Neither Fulham nor Brentford reach 60 points. There are some HUGE games between the top teams that are 6 pointers but can only be good for us.

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thefishy.co.uk

 

[Icy Gull]

Highly unlikely imo but I will continue to dream until the dreams are crushed, probably starting at Leeds…

 

[Simster]

6% seems a little on the low side to me. If we win our games in hand on various clubs, we are 5 points behind Man Utd in 3rd (with a home game against them to come), level with Newcastle, 2 points ahead of Spurs and Liverpool, 3 points ahead of Brentford and would be out of sight for every other team.

Obviously that would mean us winning those games in hand, but I'd say our squad strength stacks up reasonably well against all of them - even Liverpool and Man Utd are not noticeably stronger except up front. Anyone who doubts this should look at it and see just how much competition for squad places there is, and for all that we might look a little light up front, but we're not struggling to score goals.

Put it this way, I'm not saying we are going to make it, but if someone offered me odds reflecting a 6% chance (18/1) I'd absolutely have some of that. I think we were about 7/1 on Betfair last time I checked (before we spanked West Ham).

 

[Horsham Gull]

remembering we still have in the remaining fixtures:

United (Home)
City (Home)
Spurs (Away)
Chelsea (Away)
Newcastle (Away)
Arsenal (Away)

Results in these games will help to shape our final league position

 

[RandyWanger]

I got us in 7th.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Here's the current bet365 odds for a Top 4 finish. They go 6/1 the Albion. Next down the list are Chelsea at 50/1

 

[Hotchilidog]

remembering we still have in the remaining fixtures:

United (Home)
City (Home)
Spurs (Away)
Chelsea (Away)
Newcastle (Away)
Arsenal (Away)

Results in these games will help to shape our final league position

The best thing about this very tough group of fixtures is that it does put our fate in our hands, I think at this stage that is all you can ask for.

I genuinely think we are playing better football than Spurs and Newcastle right and overhauling them is definitely in play. A revived Liverpool however provides us with a far tougher proposition.

The fixture congestion will make it hard for us but it is just great having this conversation right now. Just buzzing for every game right now

 

[Monkey Man]

I got us finishing eighth. Very respectable but actually a bit of a disappointment all things considered.

 

[Swansman]

I got us finishing eighth. Very respectable but actually a bit of a disappointment all things considered.

Would be my guess as well. And yes it would feel a bit... not disappointing maybe, but a certain degree of emptiness.

 

[GT49er]

remembering we still have in the remaining fixtures:

United (Home)
City (Home)
Spurs (Away)
Chelsea (Away)
Newcastle (Away)
Arsenal (Away)

Results in these games will help to shape our final league position

Those are six bloody tough fixtures! Winning the other 9 matches we've got left would help!

 

[Silverhatch]

Those are six bloody tough fixtures! Winning the other 9 matches we've got left would help!

Guarantee that those clubs figure us to be one of (if not) the toughest fixtures in their run ins.

 

[Bozza]

Here's the current bet365 odds for a Top 4 finish. They go 6/1 the Albion. Next down the list are Chelsea at 50/1

I was about to post similar from the Betfair exchange.

What really jumps out is how the markets give both Fulham and Brentford almost no chance at all relative to us.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Guarantee that those clubs figure us to be one of (if not) the toughest fixtures in their run ins.

Also guaranteed that the fans of those clubs have Brighton pencilled in as a win.

 

[Bozza]

To add...

On Betfair we are 6.4 to back and 7.6 to lay which, taking the middle ground, makes us about 6/1 again. That equates to a 14% chance, give or take.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I was about to post similar from the Betfair exchange.

What really jumps out is how the markets give both Fulham and Brentford almost no chance at all relative to us.

Is that because of the games in hand ? Lose to Palace and I would imagine our odds will lengthen significantly.

 

[Monkey Man]

If you leave that calculator to its own devices and don't forecast any scores, we finish ninth, just above Chelsea and then Palace.