[Albion] The Premier League’s Big Six tore apart Southampton, now they are doing the same to Brighton

[Bozza]

My instinctive view is that a lot of the dismissive response to the article/idea behind the article feels a bit like people are, I'm not sure how to put this... 'scared and in denial'?

It is unlikely that we will contantly be finding the next replacement. It almost certainly will result in a bad season or two at some point. Especially as it becomes more common. Bissouma and Trossard seeing out contracts was a result of timing. If they came along now, we'd get a year and they'd be gone. But we were still establishing ourselves, and now we're seeing results, and the vultures are circling to pick off the best players before anyone else moves in.

Our models requires giving young players time to bed in and finds their groove. We're going to end up rushing new players to the starting line up.

I hope that doesn't result in us getting relegated, but there will be some bad years (and lets be honest, we're not exactly established in the top 10 yet, so it wouldn't take much).

Given that it seems so obvious an issue, that so many people are quick to dismiss it as a possibility is likely because they recognise it as a possibility and it scares them so they just deny it.

I'm not sure it's denial, more confidence/complacency.

But let me step back a bit. I didn't post a snippet from, and link to, the article because I agreed with it, nor was it just clickbait. The comparison with Southampton of a few years back - pick up cheap prospects, polish them up and sell them on - is an obvious one, certainly, but I'm not sure that makes it lazy.

Nor does the article simply say "it happened to Southampton, therefore it absolutely will happen to Brighton too". The summary is: "They are a phenomenally well-run football club. But there’s no guarantee it can last forever."

Does anyone think there is a cast-iron guarantee that this model is sustainable indefinitely? Again, I'm not saying it will or won't. And, as many have pointed out, our stable ownership structure and exemplary CEO give us as good a chance as any of being able to avoid a gradual decline at some point in the future. But it's not guaranteed, is it?

 

[Sheebo]

Again, I think that’s a lazy and too easy comparison. Others have covered why. It’s another reason why I don’t bother with the hype of ‘ooh Mitoma is now worth £50mil or ooh the big clubs will be in for Ferguson (who’s been playing for the first team for 5 mins) or the now ‘fact’ that Caicedo will definitely be off in the summer - the same ‘fact’ that was spouted on here time and time again about Biss for 2 years and never happened. I think our own fans and NSC don’t help the hyperbole, bull shit that so many shite journalists with a shitty Twitter account like to try and create to make a name for themselves. Yes that is a bit miserable of me - or maybe it’s the complete opposite - you decide…

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

We have only lost 2 players after 1 season. White when we were strong on CBs so not too damaging and the knob Cucu whom we managed to replace rather well. Of course lots of the current new stars are coveted and gossiped about but we have more form for selling players near the end of their contracts than the beginning. It feels a bit like we are under siege from the big boys but that is more from the rumour mill than the facts.

 

[Baldseagull]

I'm not sure it's denial, more confidence/complacency.

But let me step back a bit. I didn't post a snippet from, and link to, the article because I agreed with it, nor was it just clickbait. The comparison with Southampton of a few years back - pick up cheap prospects, polish them up and sell them on - is an obvious one, certainly, but I'm not sure that makes it lazy.

Nor does the article simply say "it happened to Southampton, therefore it absolutely will happen to Brighton too". The summary is: "They are a phenomenally well-run football club. But there’s no guarantee it can last forever."

Does anyone think there is a cast-iron guarantee that this model is sustainable indefinitely? Again, I'm not saying it will or won't. And, as many have pointed out, our stable ownership structure and exemplary CEO give us as good a chance as any of being able to avoid a gradual decline at some point in the future. But it's not guaranteed, is it?

The article is a bit more definite about the outcome I feel.

"There was once a dream that a well-run club from outside the elite could break through with a flurry of academy players coming to fruition at around the same time, and/or by creating the shrewdest recruitment network, able to spot undervalued talents at other clubs that were not making radars elsewhere.
As Southampton, currently fearing what’s beneath, and Brighton, still trying to punch upwards after a series of heavy blows, have shown, that dream will no longer ever be reality.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

The major difference between us and the Stains then is in leadership. They were owned by Katharina Liebherr, whose father had died and left her a football club that she didn't particularly want, and had Les Reed as director of football - a nice enough bloke who lasted about 40 days as Charlton manager.

We have Tony Bloom.

I rest my case.

 

[Bozza]

The article is a bit more definite about the outcome I feel.

"There was once a dream that a well-run club from outside the elite could break through with a flurry of academy players coming to fruition at around the same time, and/or by creating the shrewdest recruitment network, able to spot undervalued talents at other clubs that were not making radars elsewhere.
As Southampton, currently fearing what’s beneath, and Brighton, still trying to punch upwards after a series of heavy blows, have shown, that dream will no longer ever be reality.

That's not talking about the ultimate outcome, ie "will Brighton fade in the near future" it's about whether a small club can break into the ranks of the elite "with a flurry of academy players...and/or by creating the shrewdest recruitment network".

Southampton didn't break into the ranks of the elite. I guess Leicester did, briefly, and Newcastle are having a good go, but I think they fail the "small club" test now.

So, yes, it remains to be seen whether we are capable of establishing ourselves amongst the established top 6 (now 7 possibly) to make a 7/8. But, even if we don't manage that, there's a big gap we can occupy between the elite and the relegation scrappers, which is where Southampton now find themselves.

 

[Bozza]

The major difference between us and the Stains then is in leadership. They were owned by Katharina Liebherr, whose father had died and left her a football club that she didn't particularly want, and had Les Reed as director of football - a nice enough bloke who lasted about 40 days as Charlton manager.

We have Tony Bloom.

I rest my case.

Agreed. And I'm not sure anyone here will suggest we don't have a significant advantage in that regard.

But I'm not sure that is sufficient for me to believe with absolute surety that we're not capable of having a reversal of fortune at some point. For all but the biggest of clubs, it's always felt to me that any of the other 14 clubs are capable of being relegated with just one dodgy transfer window or a series of unfortunate injuries to key players. I can't see that we're immune to that right now.

(Note: I'm not saying we WILL have a reversal of fortune, just that I can't say it won't happen.)

 

[warmleyseagull]

I'm not sure it's denial, more confidence/complacency.

But let me step back a bit. I didn't post a snippet from, and link to, the article because I agreed with it, nor was it just clickbait. The comparison with Southampton of a few years back - pick up cheap prospects, polish them up and sell them on - is an obvious one, certainly, but I'm not sure that makes it lazy.

Nor does the article simply say "it happened to Southampton, therefore it absolutely will happen to Brighton too". The summary is: "They are a phenomenally well-run football club. But there’s no guarantee it can last forever."

Does anyone think there is a cast-iron guarantee that this model is sustainable indefinitely? Again, I'm not saying it will or won't. And, as many have pointed out, our stable ownership structure and exemplary CEO give us as good a chance as any of being able to avoid a gradual decline at some point in the future. But it's not guaranteed, is it?

Fair points, and some of the responses have erred on side of the article implying it will happen, but that is not what it says, just no guarantee it will last.

Analyse those last 5 words, and what you get is an anodyne conclusion. There are no guarantees in anything, which means the article is pointless journalism. They make a comparison then say it is not guaranteed. so what's that meant to mean?

Next...

 

[Swansman]

Is it possible to create the English version of Ajax / Sporting and produce competitive results decade after decade while producing/finding talent that they have to sell pretty much every summer?

Maybe, maybe not. But as we're seeing, it is clearly worth a try.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Agreed. And I'm not sure anyone here will suggest we don't have a significant advantage in that regard.

But I'm not sure that is sufficient for me to believe with absolute surety that we're not capable of having a reversal of fortune at some point. For all but the biggest of clubs, it's always felt to me that any of the other 14 clubs are capable of being relegated with just one dodgy transfer window or a series of unfortunate injuries to key players. I can't see that we're immune to that right now.

(Note: I'm not saying we WILL have a reversal of fortune, just that I can't say it won't happen.)

Of course it can happen to any of the 14, and I'm even old and doddery enough to remember Chelsea, Tottenham and both Manchester clubs being relegated. I always point to Stoke, who seemed as established as any provincial club after three successive ninth-placed finishes. And who ever talks about them now, apart from the real Andy Naylor?

But my point was that I think that the comparison with Southampton is too easy and one that doesn't stand up to detailed scrutiny. They put too much faith in their academy continuing to churn out talent - something that can never be taken for granted by any club - whereas we have diversified our talent search to a greater extent and have the backing of TB's data.

 

[Baldseagull]

That's not talking about the ultimate outcome, ie "will Brighton fade in the near future" it's about whether a small club can break into the ranks of the elite "with a flurry of academy players...and/or by creating the shrewdest recruitment network".

Southampton didn't break into the ranks of the elite. I guess Leicester did, briefly, and Newcastle are having a good go, but I think they fail the "small club" test now.

So, yes, it remains to be seen whether we are capable of establishing ourselves amongst the established top 6 (now 7 possibly) to make a 7/8. But, even if we don't manage that, there's a big gap we can occupy between the elite and the relegation scrappers, which is where Southampton now find themselves.

Yeah, we know Saints didn't, and the article tells us it won't happen to us either, kind of what the whole article was about.

 

[Bozza]

Of course it can happen to any of the 14, and I'm even old and doddery enough to remember Chelsea, Tottenham and both Manchester clubs being relegated. I always point to Stoke, who seemed as established as any provincial club after three successive ninth-placed finishes. And who ever talks about them now, apart from the real Andy Naylor?

But my point was that I think that the comparison with Southampton is too easy and one that doesn't stand up to detailed scrutiny. They put too much faith in their academy continuing to churn out talent - something that can never be taken for granted by any club - whereas we have diversified our talent search to a greater extent and have the backing of TB's data.

Right.

But some of the earlier replies essentially say "What's happened to Southampton won't happen to us. Because Tony Bloom."

And, even though I'm a natural optimist and bullish on our prospects, that doesn't extend to believing we are now set for long-term glory in the upper reaches of the Premier League with occasional midweek away days across Europe.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Is it possible to create the English version of Ajax / Sporting and produce competitive results decade after decade while producing/finding talent that they have to sell pretty much every summer?

Maybe, maybe not. But as we're seeing, it is clearly worth a try.

Ajax / Sporting don't have 3 of the world's biggest clubs less than a commutable 100 miles away with an insatiable appetite for proven Prem quality players. Face it - there's no competing with trebling your wages and enjoying the high life in London.

What is going under the radar here is not Brighton's ability to spot young talent globally but our ability to take players with known flaws who the big boys won't touch and somehow blend them into a team framework, around which the kids can come through, i.e.

Gross - pace
Veltman - pace, errors
March - goalscoring
Dunk - reckless, own goals
Lallana - injuries.

This is where the analytics really come into play.

 

[Farehamseagull]

My instinctive view is that a lot of the dismissive response to the article/idea behind the article feels a bit like people are, I'm not sure how to put this... 'scared and in denial'?

It is unlikely that we will contantly be finding the next replacement. It almost certainly will result in a bad season or two at some point. Especially as it becomes more common. Bissouma and Trossard seeing out contracts was a result of timing. If they came along now, we'd get a year and they'd be gone. But we were still establishing ourselves, and now we're seeing results, and the vultures are circling to pick off the best players before anyone else moves in.

Our models requires giving young players time to bed in and finds their groove. We're going to end up rushing new players to the starting line up.

I hope that doesn't result in us getting relegated, but there will be some bad years (and lets be honest, we're not exactly established in the top 10 yet, so it wouldn't take much).

Given that it seems so obvious an issue, that so many people are quick to dismiss it as a possibility is likely because they recognise it as a possibility and it scares them so they just deny it.

It may happen to us, we may start to struggle and unearth gems. The likelihood is we will be relegated at some point in the near to medium future.

The issue I have with articles like this is the lazy comparison to Southampton. There are reasons why Southampton are where they are other than selling their best players to Liverpool that these articles never explore. We’re in a very different place to where Southampton have been for the past 6/7 years.

And our youth development from young age groups is and has been ahead of Southampton’s for years now.

 

[Bozza]

Yeah, we know Saints didn't, and the article tells us it won't happen to us either, kind of what the whole article was about.

Yes, the article was whether a supposed small club could break into the elite.

Most of the replies on this thread didn't address that in any way though - they addressed whether we would "do a Southampton", ie fall from upper mid-table comfort and flirt with relegation to the Championship.

It's the second point - the one the article isn't really about - that I've been saying "how can you be so sure?" to.

 

[Swansman]

Ajax / Sporting don't have 3 of the world's biggest clubs less than a commutable 100 miles away with an insatiable appetite for proven Prem quality players. Face it - there's no competing with trebling your wages and enjoying the high life in London.

What is going under the radar here is not Brighton's ability to spot young talent globally but our ability to take players with known flaws who the big boys won't touch and somehow blend them into a team framework, around which the kids can come through, i.e.

Gross - pace
Veltman - pace, errors
March - goalscoring
Dunk - reckless, own goals
Lallana - injuries.

This is where the analytics really come into play.

Of course there's differences but not all of them are advantageous for Ajax / Sporting. Brighton gets their best players bought by London clubs, Ajax and Sporting lose their best players to European giants in general.

Just like these big teams from smaller nations, its a balance act between finding fantastic youth and also finding a couple of good characters who are not good enough to end up with the giant teams, allowing them to stay around for a bit longer.

The models of Ajax and Sporting is usually about 2-3 academy players establishing themselves in the first team with another 3-4 good talents and 1-2 established players coming in each summer, while as many as five or six might leave due to being too good and a similar amount due to not being good enough.

Obviously this results in these teams having quite cyclical results. There's seasons where Ajax would be a top 4 team in the PL and seasons where they would battle against relegation. Without having massive resources, that is about as good as it gets.

 

[portlock seagull]

Nothing lasts for ever, and where money has no value for a tiny top % of clubs, relative success becomes an even shorter period than once did. We are here to make up the numbers, our trophies are victories like those the week before last. Because the ‘sport’ is utterly rigged against #TLB, and no right minded individual thinks otherwise.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Everyone outside the so called big six (or shall we say big 7, now that we include Newcastle), is a selling club.

Financial Fair Play rules are a joke.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Right.

But some of the earlier replies essentially say "What's happened to Southampton won't happen to us. Because Tony Bloom."

And, even though I'm a natural optimist and bullish on our prospects, that doesn't extend to believing we are now set for long-term glory in the upper reaches of the Premier League with occasional midweek away days across Europe.

Indeed. Some people are getting a long way ahead of themselves after one top-half finish in our entire history. Let's qualify for Europe once before we start worrying about emulating Southampton (who have played in Europe on a number of occasions). It's at times like these that I remember a letter to the Portsmouth News' sports pages a few years back from a P*mp*y fan wondering how going into administration and selling all their players was going to 'get us back into Europe where we need to be'. Let's never becomes such #twats

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

As long as the fans and board accept that football is cyclical and we will have to anticipate periods where we are in the bottom half before we build up again and not throw the baby out with the bathwater at any sign of trouble we will be OK.