[Misc] Rainfall

[RandyWanger]

No denying it, the climate is changing.

 

[Stat Brother]

Nobody believed me when I said it was Emperor Ming preparing for an invasion.

I am NSC's answer to Dr Zarkov.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Almost all done.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Whose old enough to remember the drought last summer?

It's pissing down here. So much so, I haven't walked the dog and it is giving me evils.

The turn around from a long rainfall deficit to a surplus was needed, as we'd had less than average rainfall all year up to Oct. November was extreme, but needed to reverse the trend.

 

[Fungus]

Still got our hosepipe ban ️

 

[Coldeanseagull]

for completeness, but Sept & Oct had over 100m here

View attachment 155585
View attachment 155586

Right, I'll start building the boat, you round up the animals

 

[Papa Lazarou]

That's a proper outlier.

Do you know of any reason why it happened?

I remember during the heatwaves in July and August, there was a discussion, probably from the Met Office, about the jet stream being locked in place for a while, trapping warm air in heat domes in five places around the globe, including UK/western Europe, US and China. Could November's rainfall be the result of a similar phenomenon, with an Atlantic depression getting trapped over the UK? Note that this is wild guess; I don't really know what I'm talking about.

Looking back at the charts for November, we certainly did get 'stuck' in a similar synoptic setup for much of the month. There was blocking evident both to our West (over the US) and East (over Russia) at times, but we were continually in a trough or under active low pressure cells.

One side effect of climate change will be greater weather extremes and variability. There were certainly more energy in the system come Sept to Nov and come places got early cold incursions, we got the warmer air pushing into northern latitudes instead.

 

[bluenitsuj]

Bloody annoying when you are a professional gardener!!!

 

[Eric the meek]

Looking back at the charts for November, we certainly did get 'stuck' in a similar synoptic setup for much of the month. There was blocking evident both to our West (over the US) and East (over Russia) at times, but we were continually in a trough or under active low pressure cells.

One side effect of climate change will be greater weather extremes and variability. There were certainly more energy in the system come Sept to Nov and come places got early cold incursions, we got the warmer air pushing into northern latitudes instead.

Thanks for that.

I had heard that climate change will result in greater weather extremes. Both the heatwaves in July and August smashed records, and I suspect the foot of rain in November was also a record. Having said that, I haven't heard much, or any, talk of our long term averages being adversely affected. The predicted greater variability would suggest that this might be the case.

I have long been aware that we are lucky to have the regular movement of warmer air in from the Atlantic at our latitude. Across the Atlantic, temperatures in Newfoundland and Labrador on the same latitudes are much lower. Average January temp on the coast is -10, and in the interior, -20. I just hope that climate change won't disrupt our maritime, temperate climate beyond the extremes, and that we will be able to cope with those extremes when they occur.

 

[Washboard Didgets]

I read this article this morning which suggests February may be much like last year where we had several storms (Dudley, Eunice and Franklin) and lots of rain...

England may be set to flood at the end of winter – here's why

The Met Office has predicted that England is to be affected by flooding this February.

theconversation.com

Storm Eunice was particularly bad and resulted in issues with the water supplies up here in mid-sussex, I remember after the Burnley game we got home to no water for 2 days. Something to do with power failures affecting the pumping of water from Barcombe up to this area.

 

[fly high]

Bloody annoying when you are a professional gardener!!!

Water companies are saying that without a lot more rain, if there is another drought this summer there will be another hose pipe ban!!!!!!!

 

[nicko31]

Wet, windy and mild will do nicely. Rely on as little gas as possible....

 

[LamieRobertson]

Bloody annoying when you are a professional gardener!!!

Tad muddy isn’t it ..hasn’t stopped me much though ..just makes planning a bit more difficult

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Surprisingly wet here in Wayals

 

[MJsGhost]

Note that this is wild guess; I don't really know what I'm talking about.

NSC would be a better place if more people were honest in this way...

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The Environment agency rainfall and River flow summary has most river above normal flow

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1127716/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_28_December_2022_to_3_January_2023.pdf

the most recent Water Situation report (for Nov) doesn't seem to suggest a drought is coming.

Water situation: November 2022 summary

www.gov.uk

 

[pb21]

Wet, windy and mild will do nicely. Rely on as little gas as possible....

At the moment ~12% of our electricity is from gas turbines, this time last month it was up to 65%!

Also, currently, wind is generating 45% of the demand.

 

[Machiavelli]

That's a proper outlier.

Do you know of any reason why it happened?

I remember during the heatwaves in July and August, there was a discussion, probably from the Met Office, about the jet stream being locked in place for a while, trapping warm air in heat domes in five places around the globe, including UK/western Europe, US and China. Could November's rainfall be the result of a similar phenomenon, with an Atlantic depression getting trapped over the UK? Note that this is wild guess; I don't really know what I'm talking about.

The predominant reason why this has happened is climate change or, what some call and is pertinent to your question, climate chaos. Due to the changing climate, weather is becoming less predictable with more outliers, and natural disasters (floods, droughts, forest fires, etc) are becoming not only more regular, but also more intense and longer-lasting. If you had a look at the temperature chart for the UK/local area for 2022 you'd notice outliers in there too (warmer winters than the norm, and a summer heatwave that exceeded the notorious 1976).

 

[boik]

Is "Rainfall" the least successful of all the Bond films?

 

[Machiavelli]

Two articles from today's Guardian:

‘Persistent heavy rain’ triggers flood warnings across Great Britain

Rain and flood warnings issued for much of Wales and western parts of England and Scotland

www.theguardian.com

Twelve European countries broke temperature records in 2022

Continent records hottest ever summer as analysis shows temperatures rising twice as fast as global average

www.theguardian.com