[Football] Statistically It's not Burn we're missing, it's Webster

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Isn't the truth we're missing both?

We had two very good options for that position and now we don't

The reason people are going on about Burn is because it was an obviously self inflicted wound. Injuries happen so Webby is being less talked about, but when you sell and don't replace you leave yourself as a hostage to fortune.

We do this in other positions, notably striker, GK and RWB. All is fine as long as the incumbents are fit, in form and not suspended. However football doesn't work like that. If you keep taking risks with having an unbalanced squad with more midfielders than you need, but short in other positions, it's only a matter of time before your luck runs out.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Webster is a far superior player. It's blindingly obvious we're missing him, Burn was never really a first choice centre back for us.

Yes. Until he was sold there were repeated 'get rid' posts on NSC.

Fanny old world

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I'd forgotten that.

I tend to go off the average positions on whoscored. Here are ours from that game.

View attachment 146138

Pretty clear that March is in a similar role to Lamptey on the other wing which makes you spot on correct. But also clear that Cucuralla is more advanced than the other two centre backs and wider. I suspect you'd see games where Robertson's average position for Liverpool was similar.

Those average position graphs are deeply flawed, because they make zero account of formation changes during the game.

You were arguing with one of them a couple of weeks ago, to illustrate whether we had played three or four at the back. The graph showed Solly March in the number 10 pocket, behind the striker. March actually played LWB first half, and RW second half. The graph did truly show his AVERAGE position - which was of course entirely unhelpful in illustrating where he actually played at any point in the game.

 

[JBizzle]

Yes. Until he was sold there were repeated 'get rid' posts on NSC.

Fanny old world

In fairness, those comments had dissipated more and more the longer he played at his preferred CB position. Recency bias essentially means that he left a god, when in fact he was a decent centreback and a fantastic squad player. No doubt we're missing him, but only this much because Webster is still injured.

Webster, for me, is overwhelmingly our most important defender because he's the springboard for the way our team plays.

 

[WATFORD zero]

With a back 3 of Veltman/Dunk/Webster or Webster/Dunk/Burn I really don't think we are much weaker than we were last season with a Young White/Dunk/Webster.

The problem is that each step away from that leaves us weaker. Move Dunk to one of the wide ball playing positions, and it leaves us weaker. Bring Duffy into the central defending position it leaves us weaker. Having to do both because Webster is unavailable leaves us weaker. I suspect that when the offer came in for BDB, the club were already thinking he may get leapfrogged by one of the on loan/U23 defenders coming back at the end of the season, which would effectively leave him on the bench and fairly worthless in terms of sell on value.

So they gambled that we could get through half a season with the four existing centre backs and emergency cover from the U23s and get the maximum return for Burn while is he at his absolute peak form in the last 4 years. Suddenly Webster is out, Dunk is banned and we don't seem to have settled since with players confidence and form looking shot. A fit and available Veltman/Dunk/Webster and I believe we can get back to where we were defensively.

Beginning of next season, we will know whether the Burn gamble paid off

 

[raymondo]

With a back 3 of Veltman/Dunk/Webster or Webster/Dunk/Burn I really don't think we are much weaker than we were last season with a Young White/Dunk/Webster.

The problem is that each step away from that leaves us weaker. Move Dunk to one of the wide ball playing positions, and it leaves us weaker. Bring Duffy into the central defending position it leaves us weaker. Having to do both because Webster is unavailable leaves us weaker. I suspect that when the offer came in for BDB, the club were already thinking he may get leapfrogged by one of the on loan/U23 defenders coming back at the end of the season, which would effectively leave him on the bench and fairly worthless in terms of sell on value.

So they gambled that we could get through half a season with the four existing centre backs and emergency cover from the U23s and get the maximum return for Burn while is he at his absolute peak form in the last 4 years. Suddenly Webster is out, Dunk is banned and we don't seem to have settled since with players confidence and form looking shot. A fit and available Veltman/Dunk/Webster and I believe we can get back to where we were defensively.

Beginning of next season, we will know whether the Burn gamble paid off

Or at the end of this season

 

[WATFORD zero]

Or at the end of this season ��

Indeed, but hopefully not

 

[RandyWanger]

Probably why we allowed him to go as we choose our squad from excel

 

[Stat Brother]

White - Dunk - Webster

With BDB as reserve.

This is what Potterball was built on. Playing out from the back, ball carrying CBs into the middle of the park, cutting thru the oppo press.

We have one of the 4 in action now, arguably the worst of them all at Potterball.

And we wonder why is not going well, slow, ponderous etc...

So if you don't have the tools to do the job - why are you still trying to do the job?

 

[twr93]

The clean sheet records (based on keeper rather than team) are available in the link below (Sanchez is joint 9th).

https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/clean_sheet?po=GOALKEEPER&se=418

Thanks, I was asking more specifically about the stats relating to how many centre back combinations the teams with the most clean sheets have had

 

[Guinness Boy]

Those average position graphs are deeply flawed, because they make zero account of formation changes during the game.

You were arguing with one of them a couple of weeks ago, to illustrate whether we had played three or four at the back. The graph showed Solly March in the number 10 pocket, behind the striker. March actually played LWB first half, and RW second half. The graph did truly show his AVERAGE position - which was of course entirely unhelpful in illustrating where he actually played at any point in the game.

DEEPLY flawed or wrong in that one particular instance? That same map showed the big gaps down our middle, Cucurella hugging the left touchline and Coutinho playing in the pocket with Ings and Watkins to the side of him which was exactly how we got beaten

 

[Swansman]

So if you don't have the tools to do the job - why are you still trying to do the job?

Walkover can get quite expensive as you breach a lot of contracts etc. Better to try to play football.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

We have missed Webster massively, combined with Dunk not looking like the player he was before injury. Having the cover of Burn would have made a difference, but his departure isn't the reason for our slump.

 

[Swansman]

Webster in top form is one of the two best English central defenders. He is indeed missed, not only for his playing style but because he is quite simply a class above Dunk, Duffy and Veltman. Really hope he can get rid of these reoccuring injuries.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Walkover can get quite expensive as you breach a lot of contracts etc. Better to try to play football.

I suspect you've missed the inference, though I'm happy to be corrected (by [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION] not you). I read it as "why are we trying to play Man City football with second string, bottom six budget players"? And it's a salient point.

If you want to play Man City football then maybe you have to buy Man City players. If you're just trying to beat Burnley you might want to be a bit more pragmatic?

 

[Swansman]

I suspect you've missed the inference, though I'm happy to be corrected (by [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION] not you). I read it as "why are we trying to play Man City football with second string, bottom six budget players"? And it's a salient point.

If you want to play Man City football then maybe you have to buy Man City players. If you're just trying to beat Burnley you might want to be a bit more pragmatic?

The pragmatic thing is to play similar as before since thats what the team is built around doing. Telling the players during pre-game tactical talk that "today we're Stoke City" wouldnt be pragmatic.

Its also not a "salient point"... Brighton has played "Man City football" with bottom six players and avoided relegation while watching eg West Bromwich go down playing West Bromwich football with a bottom six budget.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

In fairness, those comments had dissipated more and more the longer he played at his preferred CB position. Recency bias essentially means that he left a god, when in fact he was a decent centreback and a fantastic squad player. No doubt we're missing him, but only this much because Webster is still injured.

Webster, for me, is overwhelmingly our most important defender because he's the springboard for the way our team plays.

Recency bias - love it. I'm stealing that for later

 

[Machiavelli]

Outstanding thread, and good to see so many recognise just who are most important player is.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The pragmatic thing is to play similar as before since thats what the team is built around doing. Telling the players during pre-game tactical talk that "today we're Stoke City" wouldnt be pragmatic.

Its also not a "salient point"... Brighton has played "Man City football" with bottom six players and avoided relegation while watching eg West Bromwich go down playing West Bromwich football with a bottom six budget.

If you think Robert Sanchez is Ederson, Shane Duffy is John Stones and MacAllister is KDB you've been smoking too much again.

We are patently unable to play out from the back effectively with players who have an inferior first touch and pace to their opponents. It should be obvious.

 

[Jeremiah]

Another asset that Webster brings to the team is also the ability to connect from corners and sometimes score - Chelsea & Watford. No one else seems to be able to do this.