The Ukraine/Russia Situation

[GreersElbow]

If Putin launches his aggression at Mariupol, then the ceasefire is in tatters, and the call will be irresistible for the US to arm the Ukrainian government just like Putin is arming the rebels.

Ceasefire is in tatters, Putin said Ukrainian forces should leave Debaltseve. 2 days later, they retreat. Ceasefire will allow the DNR to regroup, re arm and then solidify their ground and resume fighting. Mariupol is already undersiege, http://news.sky.com/video/1428610/ceasefire-broken-in-mariupol fighting has taken place because this is possibly the most important city to take for the DNR/Russia. It allows them a corridor to Crimea. The recent agreement has also allowed the DNR to retake lost ground, most specifically the ground lost in July 2014, which is quite a lot of ground.

Ceasefire in general, was an absolute joke. The only logic I can think that's behind the agreement is the availability of gas supply which Putin holds even greater leverage over. If you haven't read teh Minsk protocol, read it. Russia has won this because the West has been pussyfooting around.

The West has a few options:
1) Arm Ukraine to the teeth
2) Do nothing
3) Negotiate a new agreement
4) Further economic sanctions

Applying rational choice theory and you can see that preferential order is 4,3,1,2.

But seeing as the DNR/Russians breach every agreement anyway, 3 can be elminated using game theory. Leaving 4,1,2. 2 means the West lose, Russian wins. Not likely, so 2 can be eliminated. Leavine 4 or 1.

Economic sanctions have crippled Russia, and the only way Russia has continued to stay afloat was because of the Chinese gas deal (which was funny, as Russia got a bad deal). It would be sensible to push harder and harder with these sanctions, however, could push them into 'humanitarian intervention'. Which would win the Putin the popularity war, giving him more power. He did this with Chechnya in the 90s/2000s.

Russia in Ukraine would mean Russia wins again. Leaving arming Ukraine to the teeth as the only option, as it level the playing field in terms of fighting.

 

[GreersElbow]

Also if anyone is interested in Aleksandr Dugin (close adviser to United Russia, pro-National Bolshevism, and wants restoration of the Russian empire) Here's a good article on the nutjob.

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/aleksandr-dugin-russian-expansionism

He once said, or to the same effect before the Russia-Georgian war, "Tbilisi will burn whilst Russian troops occupy Georgia"

This isn't just a geo-political power struggle, it's ideological.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Also if anyone is interested in Aleksandr Dugin (close adviser to United Russia, pro-National Bolshevism, and wants restoration of the Russian empire) Here's a good article on the nutjob.

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/aleksandr-dugin-russian-expansionism

He once said, or to the same effect before the Russia-Georgian war, "Tbilisi will burn whilst Russian troops occupy Georgia"

This isn't just a geo-political power struggle, it's ideological.

Dugin is an absolute nutter. The more influence he has with Putin, the more grim the outcome.

 

[Danny-Boy]

Dugin is an absolute nutter. The more influence he has with Putin, the more grim the outcome.

I think Putin doesn't need influence to try to divide the Western powers. He's just been in Hungary using the carrot and stick approach on their government, who are not renowned for a pro-West outlook.

Rusia supplies most of Hungary's oil and gas so that's the stick. "Ve pull ze plug.." Hungary is not part of the Euro-group either.

 

[Biscuit]

More, and harder, sanctions.

 

[vegster]

Bad idea. Sanctions never work, they only provoke.

It is currently possible to sit round a table with Putin and negotiate, it would be very stupid to remove this possibility by provoking Russia further with more sanctions. The sanctions currently in place have only exacerbated the problem.

Putin genuinely seems to get off on power and doing what he wants and laughing at the West. We had the ridiculous sight of merkel and Hollande running to Putin to try to broker a peace deal with Putin sat there all smug. He caused the crisis and now he has Western leaders grovelling to him to get him to stop what he started thus enhancing his Big Man status.

Notice Merkel and Hollande did not go to Donetsk to talk to " Rebel Leaders ", they went to go the guy who really runs the "Rebellion ", a tacit show of understanding who's war it is. He seems impervious to whatever happens, shooting down airliners and getting away with it along with numerous other illegal and illicit shenanigans. I fear we are drawing near to putting a line in the sand soon in Eastern Ukraine otherwise Putin will just turn the conflict on and off as it suits him.

 

[Biscuit]

Bad idea. Sanctions never work, they only provoke.

It is currently possible to sit round a table with Putin and negotiate, it would be very stupid to remove this possibility by provoking Russia further with more sanctions. The sanctions currently in place have only exacerbated the problem.

Good idea. They have been working.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Bad idea. Sanctions never work, they only provoke.

It is currently possible to sit round a table with Putin and negotiate, it would be very stupid to remove this possibility by provoking Russia further with more sanctions. The sanctions currently in place have only exacerbated the problem.

It was the economy that brought down the iron curtain at the end of the 80s. Putin won't negotiate. He'll come to the table and then go away to do his own thing.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

We certainly need to ramp up the sanctions. It'll certainly hurt us, but not as much as bombs and bullets.

Every day Russians have got used to their Ipads, Sony TVs and even essentials like Bread. When they don't have them anymore or have to que up for essentials, they might wonder why. The main threat to Putin is from his own people. Plus, people like Abramovich have far too much to lose............it maybe that when they start to squeal, Putin might suddenly disappear.

 

[carlzeiss]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32776198

 

[sir albion]

6k in a year is a lot of deaths and the coverage is pretty low key isn't it to be fair....If this was a less powerful country with oil we and the rest would have been in there by now...That I'm sure of.

Finally the west has turned a blind eye as they're worried about Russia and rightly so

 

[London Irish]

Amazing we have Holocaust Remembrance Day and we say never again, and yet there are open Hitler-supporting battalions fighting for the Kiev government and nobody says a word about it.

 

[carlzeiss]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...expose-it-as-russian-propaganda-10455957.html

 

[vegster]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...expose-it-as-russian-propaganda-10455957.html

Trouble is, most ordinary Russians will believe it and Putin has no capacity to be ashamed by anything. What should worry ordinary Russians is how easy it seems for two Americans to steal a state of the art SAM unit in their territory and shoot down a plane and get away scot free, either that or the CIA has explosives that can mimic damage from a missile strike when planted on board a plane somehow...

 

[EUROFANZ]

Hello guys, my name is Slavik, I live in Ukraine and I am a co-organizer of a large-scale international tournament for football fans from European countries. It's called EUROFANZ and it's held every year in Lviv, Western Ukraine, since 2007. Maybe some of you would be interested to organize Brighton & Hove Albion fans team and take part in the tournament? There is a separate thread on the North Stand Chat with all necessary details:
http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?328134-EUROFANZ-2016-tournament
Cheers,
Slavik.