The road to 90 points

[Thunder Bolt]

I am fast coming to the same conclusion that Newcastle might be the team that is more vulnerable in the run in. Their games look a bit tougher but no games are a foregone conclusion anyhow. I also think that it might take 95 or 96 points, perhaps more, to secure automatic Promotion

Preston have still got Newcastle and Huddersfield to play. They have beaten Huddersfield already this season, and could still get in the playoffs. They have a good record against teams in the top 6, including taking 4 points off of us.

 

[LamieRobertson]

View attachment 82781

This could happen if we lose at Leeds. 45 games, one to go.

This is not exaggerated and is less than the three clubs attained last season in the final 10 games.

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

It means going to Villa equalling Huddersfield result at home to Cardiff.

LOL....just a few predictions then

 

[Change at Barnham]

My best guess:
I guess Huddersfield will win 8 and draw 2 of their remaining games = 97 points
I guess Newcastle will win 7 and draw 2 of their remaining games = 100 points

Therefore we need 97 points to gain automatic promotion.
12 points available at home, but we will frustratingly draw one of those games = 10 points from our home games.
Therefore 10 points are needed from games at Leeds, QPR, Wolves, Norwich and Villa.

It's going all the way to the last game of the season.
Strap yourselves in.

 

[JonnyComeEarly]

Just win 8 out of the 9 left and it matters not what the other 2 do

 

[lawros left foot]

My best guess:
I guess Huddersfield will win 8 and draw 2 of their remaining games = 97 points
I guess Newcastle will win 7 and draw 2 of their remaining games = 100 points

Therefore we need 97 points to gain automatic promotion.
12 points available at home, but we will frustratingly draw one of those games = 10 points from our home games.
Therefore 10 points are needed from games at Leeds, QPR, Wolves, Norwich and Villa.

It's going all the way to the last game of the season.
Strap yourselves in.

You really don't think Newcastle or Udders will lose another game this season?

I think they will both lose at least one, and maybe more, as may we, however, I am beginning to fancy our chances more than both the others.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

In the last 6 games Huddersfield have gained just one point more than us.

http://www.thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=2

 

[dazzer6666]

I am fast coming to the same conclusion that Newcastle might be the team that is more vulnerable in the run in. Their games look a bit tougher but no games are a foregone conclusion anyhow. I also think that it might take 95 or 96 points, perhaps more, to secure automatic Promotion

Agree with you. They have 5 home games left, and their are poor at home........barely play-off material. As the pressure and tension increases (palpable from the stands) I can see them dropping quite a few points.

 

[warmleyseagull]

My best guess:
I guess Huddersfield will win 8 and draw 2 of their remaining games = 97 points
I guess Newcastle will win 7 and draw 2 of their remaining games = 100 points

Therefore we need 97 points to gain automatic promotion.
12 points available at home, but we will frustratingly draw one of those games = 10 points from our home games.
Therefore 10 points are needed from games at Leeds, QPR, Wolves, Norwich and Villa.

It's going all the way to the last game of the season.
Strap yourselves in.

If Udders fail to win auto promotion with 97 points I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat. It's not going to happen. They were fortunate today not to concede a late pen, they can't keep winning by a goal.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Middlesbro didn't.

But they drew their last 4 games.

 

[warmleyseagull]

View attachment 82781

This could happen if we lose at Leeds. 45 games, one to go.

This is not exaggerated and is less than the three clubs attained last season in the final 10 games.

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

It means going to Villa equalling Huddersfield result at home to Cardiff.

Or bettering Toon's result at home to Barnsley...

 

[Triggaaar]

Their reliance on one goal wins is incredibly dangerous though. A bit of bad luck or a dodgy ref and they'll be in trouble.

They had a dodgy ref against Brentford, but that didn't stop them. On the contrary, it helped them a great deal that he didn't give Brentford a penalty in the dying minutes.

 

[perseus]

Naylor was twitting that 90 pts would be enough when I said 97.

As Newcastle beat Huddersfield

I think we may need 95 which means winning at Villa. And winning all the home games.

 

[The_Viper]

Still convinced 2 points per game over the 46 will be enough. 92 is still the one for me.

 

[bWize]

Still convinced 2 points per game over the 46 will be enough. 92 is still the one for me.

Same... 92 is the magic number!

 

[perseus]

Wired

I tried to find the stats on promotion teams vs relegation teams (75% wins H or A) or middle of the table (H 75% A 60%) or play-off contenders (H 38% A 24%).

Stats come out as

Newcastle 95
Brighton 95
Huddersfield 93

The snag is most likely after 45 games

Newcastle 92
Brighton 92
Huddersfield 90

This is better than current form indicates and means only a draw might do at Villa. That has us losing at Leeds (only loss) and both Newcastle and Huddersfield losing once. Unlike last year when all three sides were undefeated.

We really don't want to go to Villa wanting a win.

Every combination I can think of says 93 pts is the minimum, 95 pts quite likely and even 97 or 98 points could be needed if the three clubs do what happened last season. And why not? Points total well above even last year so stats are likely to be more as well.

On Albion' last year tally for the last 9 games (less than this year), we will get 98 pts.

 

[Stat Brother]

It's no wonder this place loses it's shite the second a game is lost.

So many people predicting 3 teams going undefeated over a total of 28 games.
As crazy as that is, they're making those predictions on the back of 'Field scraping a 1-0 win and 'Castle losing at home.

Anyone thinking this will turn out to be a three way 100 point tussle for promotion is a bit of a wally.

 

[essbee]

I tried to find the stats on promotion teams vs relegation teams (75% wins H or A) or middle of the table (H 75% A 60%) or play-off contenders (H 38% A 24%).

Stats come out as

Newcastle 95
Brighton 95
Huddersfield 93

The snag is most likely after 45 games

Newcastle 92
Brighton 92
Huddersfield 90

This is better than current form indicates and means only a draw might do at Villa. That has us losing at Leeds (only loss) and both Newcastle and Huddersfield losing once. Unlike last year when all three sides were undefeated.

We really don't want to go to Villa wanting a win.

Every combination I can think of says 93 pts is the minimum, 95 pts quite likely and even 97 or 98 points could be needed if the three clubs do what happened last season. And why not? Points total well above even last year so stats are likely to be more as well.

On Albion' last year tally for the last 9 games (less than this year), we will get 98 pts.

I don't want to go to Villa needing anything tbh.

 

[sams dad]

I think we may need 95 which means winning at Villa. .

No it doesn't. If we win the next 6 we will have 95 points with three to play.

 

[Berty23]

They had a dodgy ref against Brentford, but that didn't stop them. On the contrary, it helped them a great deal that he didn't give Brentford a penalty in the dying minutes.

This is really really sad but I took a video of the penalty incident to check on my phone frame by frame and it was outside the box. Back to blaming Brentford for missing a load of sitters.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Surely Huddersfield cannot keep on winning their games by a single goal?

I know they are an extremely fit squad and have used the loan market well, but it has to catch up with them sooner or later.
Doesn't it?

Conversely we have won several of our games convincingly over the past month or so.

Such a shame that we ballsed up at Forest..