The Newark By Election - June 5th

[e77]

I predict a Conservative win with a massively reduced majority from UKIP. Marginal gain for Labour and collapse of the Lib Dem vote.

 

[TheJasperCo]

Depends, what's the demographics like for the sort of people who live there?

 

[Danny-Boy]

That is a massive assumption. The conservative share of the vote in Newark in 2010 was 53% and UKP's was 3%. The largest swing in UK election history was 21%

Well if the LD vote collapses again it could be goodnight Cleggy... even Pantsdown won't be able to continue backing him forever.

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

No, three of the last five MPs have been Labour - it's certainly not a rock solid Tory seat.

Quite possibly you're correct there - I didn't consult my Almanac of British Politics. However, the seat used to be Newark and Sherwood, and the mining districts in Sherwood were solidly Labour. The boundary changes of 1983 removed those areas. The altered seat was Conservative from 1983 to 1997, Labour till 2001, and has been Conservative ever since.