[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Audax]

7/8 degrees forecast for 27th onwards.... I predict you'll be disappointed...

Ignore the temp forecasts that far out. If what the folks over at netweather are hoping for actually happens, it'll be cold.

 

[Giraffe]

Twitter seems alive with talk of great potential for January.

 

[dazzer6666]

Twitter seems alive with talk of great potential for January.

The netweather forum is worse than this one for differences of opinion [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

 

[driller]

Possible snow next week ??

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Possible snow next week ??

Possible not probable

 

[dazzer6666]

Possible snow next week ??

Early Jan so far possibly a better bet but not being ruled out at all. What does seem to have fairly strong consensus currently in weather-geek world is that we are going into a fairly prolonged mostly cold - and possibly quite severely cold at times - spell. I'm a complete novice but the model output and discussions that follow are quite fascinating.

Good thread here for anyone interested https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94847-model-output-discussion-the-run-up-to-christmas/page/41/

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Early Jan so far possibly a better bet but not being ruled out at all. What does seem to have fairly strong consensus currently in weather-geek world is that we are going into a fairly prolonged mostly cold - and possibly quite severely cold at times - spell. I'm a complete novice but the model output and discussions that follow are quite fascinating.

Good thread here for anyone interested https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94847-model-output-discussion-the-run-up-to-christmas/page/41/

I agree, synoptically the period after a brief milder spell on Boxing Day is fascinating. There is a however though.

However Alert

All the model output we've seen recently, and it continues with today's output, the upper air temperatures are never as cold as 'you'd expect', and always fluctuating around the level you'd need for snow. What do I mean by 'you'd expect'? Well, if you follow model output for as long as some of us have, there is a definite lack of cold air to tap into. I personally think this IS a sign of climate change, and specifically the huge amounts of heat that has been pumped into the Arctic, melting ice and more importantly warming the oceans. This means the refreeze gets delayed each winter, allowing warm air to exist there deeper into the winter, and of course drawing off cold air to warm the unfrozen oceans.

Hopefully, now much of the Arctic has refrozen, even if it's thin ice, we might see colder air available into early January.

To get sub-zero day time temps, in general you'd need temps of -10C at 850hpa, as you can see, we stay in a range around -4C to -6C, sometimes cold enough for snow, but day time temps, at least down here will be +3 or +4C.

 

[dazzer6666]

I agree, synoptically the period after a brief milder spell on Boxing Day is fascinating. There is a however though.

However Alert

All the model output we've seen recently, and it continues with today's output, the upper air temperatures are never as cold as 'you'd expect', and always fluctuating around the level you'd need for snow. What do I mean by 'you'd expect'? Well, if you follow model output for as long as some of us have, there is a definite lack of cold air to tap into. I personally think this IS a sign of climate change, and specifically the huge amounts of heat that has been pumped into the Arctic, melting ice and more importantly warming the oceans. This means the refreeze gets delayed each winter, allowing warm air to exist there deeper into the winter, and of course drawing off cold air to warm the unfrozen oceans.

Hopefully, now much of the Arctic has refrozen, even if it's thin ice, we might see colder air available into early January.

To get sub-zero day time temps, in general you'd need temps of -10C at 850hpa, as you can see, we stay in a range around -4C to -6C, sometimes cold enough for snow, but day time temps, at least down here will be +3 or +4C.

View attachment 131685

Thanks - really interesting.......I'm finding the conversations online quiet enlightening. It's not far off the 'Potter in/out' thread at times for the differences of opinion though - and like any other forum there seems to be a handful of contrarians/WUMs. Brilliant stuff

 

[FloatLeft]

Thanks - really interesting.......I'm finding the conversations online quiet enlightening. It's not far off the 'Potter in/out' thread at times for the differences of opinion though - and like any other forum there seems to be a handful of contrarians/WUMs. Brilliant stuff

This! I’ve discovered that I’m now a bit of a weather geek as I find the posts on NetWeather fascinating but mostly indecipherable (but I think I’m learning slowly)

 

[Driver8]

My local forecast. I know the apple weather forecast isn’t the best.

 

[dazzer6666]

My local forecast. I know the apple weather forecast isn’t the best.

‘As useful as a handbrake on a kayak’ was how I think someone described it on Netweather earlier [emoji23][emoji23]

 

[Notters]

Says heavy snow here tonight now! https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2647784

 

[NEASTGULL]

Just had a light flurry for around 10-15 minutes or so in NE10.

 

[Giraffe]

Fair chance of “something” in Sussex next Monday?

 

[SK1NT]

This is the time of the year that this thread comes into it’s own

 

[dangull]

Last year was a damp squib, I think it was fair to say.

Anyway, when was the last time it snowed on Christmas day in Sussex ? Not in my life time. Christmas cards should just have damp grey clouds and a temp of 9c on them.

 

[Giraffe]

The set up for this winter and January in particularly seems to be a lot more conducive for snow this year. As always though it is so hit and miss for the coast.

 

[LamieRobertson]

The set up for this winter and January in particularly seems to be a lot more conducive for snow this year. As always though it is so hit and miss for the coast.

Gut tells me we’ll have some cold and snow this Winter ...a bit of disruption is inevitable

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Gut tells me we’ll have some cold and snow this Winter ...a bit of disruption is inevitable

A bit more wont hurt will it

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[LamieRobertson]

Tad windy and wet tonight ..thanks Bella