Is 3 snowflakes heavy snow on the back edge or does that denote sleet?
All to do with timing of the front and cold air sinking south at the right time to undercut it.
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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Is 3 snowflakes heavy snow on the back edge or does that denote sleet?
All to do with timing of the front and cold air sinking south at the right time to undercut it.
Yoda
English & European
Don't think the cold will under cut quick enough, but looking at the 06z GFS run, it's looking very interesting from the following weekend onwards (long way out yet).
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
I'm just happy with cold and crisp and bright - beats wet and mild and grey, always!
larus
Well-known member
C'mon. Read the script. All we're going to get is SW'lys until March. No chance of any snow this year at all
Yoda
English & European
C'mon. Read the script. All we're going to get is SW'lys until March. No chance of any snow this year at all
I keep forgetting this is going to be the case.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Please, please don't snow until after the 6th Jan
carteater
Well-known member
The GFS 06Z run is crazy
It has ensemble support, however not as extreme as that.
It has ensemble support, however not as extreme as that.
The Excess forecast a Siberian winter with killer blizzards back in September, and the previous September, and the previous September.....
Before Easter, the Excess will be predicting a barbecue summer - as it does every March
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Still lots of cold / snowy potential in the model data at the moment, but still a lot of variation.
What we can say is that we'll get an introduction of much colder air (behind a descending front) during NYD, which will give snow further north. There's an outside chance of some snow showers behind that, but nothing significant here.
After that, the big question is whether we get a repeat, this time with much colder air. The key factor is whether the UK high pressure that develops by Tuesday draws away W to NW allowing a Northerly and then North Easterly feed. It's all to play for.
What we can say is that we'll get an introduction of much colder air (behind a descending front) during NYD, which will give snow further north. There's an outside chance of some snow showers behind that, but nothing significant here.
After that, the big question is whether we get a repeat, this time with much colder air. The key factor is whether the UK high pressure that develops by Tuesday draws away W to NW allowing a Northerly and then North Easterly feed. It's all to play for.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Today's 6Z Operational run, though not as insane as yesterday's still shows the 2nd cold push, followed (in this case) by a possible Easterly.
This is just one of the colder members... but as always there are milder options.
This is just one of the colder members... but as always there are milder options.
Accepting we cannot be sure and nothing imminently due for Sussex in terms of snow, but although there is a colder northerly drag within a reliable timeframe and some longer term colder evolution outside of a reliable timeframe, where is this return of SW's after a couple of weeks within the current data ??
Yoda
English & European
It doesn't need to be, Uncle Spielberg said so. Nothing but SW's all winter long.
larus
Well-known member
Sorry, but that's not what I'm reading on NetWeather Forums. Lots of interest and changes between the different models and the different runs. Nothing is certain.
The thing with those netweather forums - they're always talking about stuff around '9 days away'.
When the cold stuff doesn't arrive - they're not bothered, they're simply off and talking about the blizzard due 'in 9 days time'
I have a quick dip into them to get a quick overview then refer to papa here for some sense.
If I want someone to say it'll be SW's for the next 100 years - I search out some US posts
When the cold stuff doesn't arrive - they're not bothered, they're simply off and talking about the blizzard due 'in 9 days time'
I have a quick dip into them to get a quick overview then refer to papa here for some sense.
If I want someone to say it'll be SW's for the next 100 years - I search out some US posts
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
TheWeatherOutlook Forum is much better.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=topics&f=2
larus
Well-known member
Yeah, but I ignore any ramp ups which are more than 120 hours out. Too much changes and models are only software programs with bugs, assumptions and bias (same as the Climate models lol).
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
The Met Office are coming round to the idea.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
I'm liking (as a lover of milder weather) the difference between yesterday's GFS and today's run for next Friday.
Yesterday:
Today:
Yesterday:
Today:
chucky1973
New member
The alps are struggling bad. Wouldn't want to be going skiing anytime soon.