[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
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robinsonsgrin
Well-known member
I always have a slight freak out when I see this thread bumped! eeeeeeeeeeeeek
shaolinpunk
[Insert witty title here]
This to an extent, but I'm also glad as it's my first port of call when I want to know whether to expect snow
I gave up at the 7th "paragraph" - does it say we're going to get lots of snow this winter ( and please don't mention solar cycles ! ) ?
mejonaNO12 aka riskit
Well-known member
God I love this thread. It gave me so many office points in the last FLURRY.
About 2 days before THAT day where everyone abandoned their cars (I ended up walking from Brighton station to Peacehaven) I saw Papa's prediction and WARNED work that people should not come in or leave early that day.
"No Mejona, you're just trying to not come to work" they said.
Even on the DAY I was saying "The snow is coming, we HAVE to leave now". again, no one believed me.
Queue the next day and tales of people sleeping in their cars and staying in the office. I was a weather GOD.
About 2 days before THAT day where everyone abandoned their cars (I ended up walking from Brighton station to Peacehaven) I saw Papa's prediction and WARNED work that people should not come in or leave early that day.
"No Mejona, you're just trying to not come to work" they said.
Even on the DAY I was saying "The snow is coming, we HAVE to leave now". again, no one believed me.
Queue the next day and tales of people sleeping in their cars and staying in the office. I was a weather GOD.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
He's saying that
1. The current solar cycle is both weak and similar to cycles 5 & 6
2. There is a link between weak solar maxima and cold winters
3. The mechanism is poorl yunderstood, but seems to result in the jet stream being pushed further south
4. Cycles 5 & 6 were associated with the Dalton Minima, a period is generally cold conditions, winter and summer
5. There were however hot summers and average winters in that period, so we can't necessarily expect a cold winter every year
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
That is the power of this thread. Smugness.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
jevs
Well-known member
Papa, why are people still making long range predictions ? It's got to be about the least accurate science on the planet. The Met bolloxed right up last spring by saying this summer would be colder and wetter than average.
My only theory is that one day, purely by the laws of averages, they've got to get something right and then they can all say "we told you so"
people are actually getting paid to do this too.
Yeah, northern Scotland perhaps !!!!
My only theory is that one day, purely by the laws of averages, they've got to get something right and then they can all say "we told you so"
people are actually getting paid to do this too.
Yeah, northern Scotland perhaps !!!!
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
I got kudos at work from this thread too. Papa Lazarou is the don of weather predictions.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Money. Companies like Exacta charge companies lots of money (as do the Met Office) for long range trend analysis. Where they push it too far is to be too precise on specific weather types.
This guy claims a high hit rate, but analysis shows he's no better than random guessing, but covers himself by both being vague and cherry picking weather to back himself up (like saying he was correct that we'd see gale force winds on Oct 10th, when in reality it was only windy on the top of Cairngorm).
http://www.weatheraction.com/
Daffy Duck
Stop bloody moaning!
Wonder when we'll see the first mention of "flumping".
Our very own NSC word.
Our very own NSC word.
Fair point - didn't notice the date. I shall go to the corner an beat myself !
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Flump youself please.
Braders
Abi Fletchers Gimpboy
Same , PLEASE no snow this year!!
Re: The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2013-14 season]
4 weeks until British Summer Time ends.
After that be very afraid...
4 weeks until British Summer Time ends.
After that be very afraid...
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
There are no signs of any early snowy weather, but it is still only September