Syria vote Labour demands evidence

[loz]

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Thats not quite correct...Iraq?

 

[beorhthelm]

Thats not quite correct...Iraq?

and Lebenon, and Israel. the author doesnt really understand reality and the poster isnt really interested in "the truth".

 

[martyn20]

View attachment 46649

Are you suggesting there are no chemical weapons in Syria at all?

 

[somerset]

and Lebenon, and Israel. the author doesnt really understand reality and the poster isnt really interested in "the truth".

Quite,.... cant have the anti-establishment ( generous title) agenda skewed by the truth, the real truth.

 

[Dr NBC]

The use of chemical weapons in this instance constitutes a war crime, one that is underpinned in international customary, humanitarian and treaty law. This is irrespective of Syria's status within the Chemical Weapons Convention, which they have neither signed nor ratified. It has been 25 years since the last CW attacks in a combat situation and the perpetrators of that crime were never expressly held to account for what they did. While very few in the West have an appetite for war, many in the international arms control and disarmament community see this as a watershed moment - a new Halabja if you will. Simply standing by and watching events unfold is inherently problematic as it is providing de facto legitimisation for future potential deliberate release of chemical (and possibly other - read biological) agents. It is hoped that the mistakes made 25 years ago will not be repeated.

Not that I have any real clue as to what is currently happening in Syria (I'll wait for Ake Sellstrom's report to the UN), the problem I have with all of these "likely" or "unlikely" scenarios of who may or may not be responsible for the alleged CW attacks, is that it is all based on rumour and conjecture. The only thing people can do is deal in fact and unfortunately facts are in short supply.

From what I can tell the main reason why the Syrian Government is the likely culprit is based on the simple fact that they are in possession of both chemical agents and adequate delivery systems. This, coupled with the regime's CW doctrine, makes me think that they are most likely responsible, regardless of who profits from these heinous acts.

M. Zuhair Diab wrote an influential article on Syrian CBW called SYRIA’S CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: ASSESSING CAPABILITIES AND MOTIVATIONS. It is a bit dated now (Fall 1997 Nonproliferation Review, p.104-111) but it has been expanded upon somewhat on the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) website. Here's the link:

http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/syria/chemical/

I know people love to beat up on Donald Rumsfeld - and for good reason - but his quote on "known knowns" is apt here. We know that Syria has chemical munitions and adequate delivery systems and doctrine for use. This was the situation under former President Hafez al-Assad and I find it hard to believe that his son would have drastically altered such a significant portion of the regime's strategic doctrine.

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

The ...doctrine.

Where have you been when we needed you? Its all well and good flying off to Damascus (dont pretend you didn't) but what about NSC? Did you think of us?

More seriously its good to have an expert on and good post.

 

[Dr NBC]

Thanks for the kind words. I've purposefully been staying away from this debate for a litany of reasons but I felt that I had to a add "my two cents" (sorry, but I am Canadian).

There are a lot of questions that need answering over these Syria allegations and any attempt to untangle this web of misinformation, "black" propaganda and partisan rhetoric is going to present a significant challenge to whomever is tasked with this responsibility.

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

When you consider that the rebels also have access to chemical weapons too and that sarin gas can be deployed in a number of ways, many of which the opposition have access to, it makes the Syrian government the least likely culprit by a long way.

You're right in saying that there is no concrete evidence either way - but the opposition have been caught red handed committing atrocities similar to this countless times, although not on this scale before. It's a not a coincidence that UN inspectors were just a matter of miles away at the time. The motive is clear, and if it wasn't for democracy in the UK, this massacre would have already been success for them and Western nations would have bombed Assad, just as intended.

My problem with saying there is doubt that it was the regime so it MUST be the rebels is this...

If i was shot dead and i didn't have access to the calibre of the gun or the type of ammunition, would you say it is suicide or would you arrest my gun owning and waving sworn enemy who has been caught saying "get the gun dude and make sure you wear gloves"?

 

[martyn20]

When you consider that the rebels also have access to chemical weapons too and that sarin gas can be deployed in a number of ways, many of which the opposition have access to, it makes the Syrian government the least likely culprit by a long way.

You're right in saying that there is no concrete evidence either way - but the opposition have been caught red handed committing atrocities similar to this countless times, although not on this scale before. It's a not a coincidence that UN inspectors were just a matter of miles away at the time. The motive is clear, and if it wasn't for democracy in the UK, this massacre would have already been success for them and Western nations would have bombed Assad, just as intended.

And what about the satellite evidence of the attacks the US and has shared with friends and enemies in the Congress?

 

[daveinprague]

It still feels a bit weird being allied to Al Nusra (Al Qaeda), and the Islamic State of Iraq in this civil war.

 

[Dr NBC]

When you consider that the rebels also have access to chemical weapons too

I've not seen concrete proof of this anywhere other than pure speculative responses on the internet. Like I said, lots of rumour and conjecture.

and that sarin gas can be deployed in a number of ways

Granted, but puncturing garbages filled with Sarin with sharpened umbrellas on commuter trains is not really the type of dissemination technique that will kill >1000 people over a large area. (see Aum Shinrikyo) Outside of rebel groups stealing Syrian Army chemical munitions, I don't see how this scenario is likely. And if they were able to gain access to Syrian Army CW stockpiles, then that presents a much bigger problem in terms of non-proliferation of unconventional weapons.

 

[beorhthelm]

When you consider that the rebels also have access to chemical weapons too and that sarin gas can be deployed in a number of ways, many of which the opposition have access to, it makes the Syrian government the least likely culprit by a long way.

You're right in saying that there is no concrete evidence either way - but the opposition have been caught red handed committing atrocities similar to this countless times, although not on this scale before.

the scale is so important to this matter. 1400 dead. as far as i understand, that requires fully weaponised delivery systems, its ariel bombardment or shelling a wide area with a substantial concentration. so either the rebels have acquired artillery or aircraft, or you have to determine it was Assad's forces (of which theres one which could have the means but not be under the direct control...)

 

[Dandyman]

And the pieces of the jigsaw come together...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...cense-to-drill-on-golan-heights-to-genie.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genie_Energy

 

[drew]

And the pieces of the jigsaw come together...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...cense-to-drill-on-golan-heights-to-genie.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genie_Energy

Are you going to do the same in respect of Russian and China and their contracts with Syria?

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

And the pieces of the jigsaw come together...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...cense-to-drill-on-golan-heights-to-genie.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genie_Energy

I wonder if you are aware of where the only Russian naval port and barracks in the med is? I wonder if you know why the Russians are passing / have sold high end anti aircraft weaponry to the Assad regime. I wonder if you can put all that together and figure out why they and China are denying an attack took place.

Or are you just concerned with western conspiracy theories?

 

[Dandyman]

I wonder if you are aware of where the only Russian naval port and barracks in the med is? I wonder if you know why the Russians are passing / have sold high end anti aircraft weaponry to the Assad regime. I wonder if you can put all that together and figure out why they and China are denying an attack took place.

Or are you just concerned with western conspiracy theories?

When have I suggested that any of the world powers are acting for anything other than narrow interests? Even more reason to keep out IMO.

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

When have I suggested that any of the world powers are acting for anything other than narrow interests? Even more reason to keep out IMO.

So if your so aware of this why did you choose a US story about Israel giving licence to drill in the heights?

 

[martyn20]

Between a rock and a hard place

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

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Between a rock and a hard place

Al Qaeda..................and not forgetting - the French. A most unlikely alliance.

Must fill the US with confidence. Still haven't forgiven the French for disclosing details of Allied missions to the enemy in the Bosnian conflict.

 

[Soulman]