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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)











Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
7,288
Thanks for the update. The sacking is a bit unnecessary IMO ... should have just let the issue drop (points were made and reacted to in a difficult and stressful situation) and everyone move forward together.
Bit hard to judge Zelenky's political actions from here. He seems to get most things right, so i'm assuming he has his reasons
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,497
Could be, could be... Russia heads toward entropy.
I can't get my head easily (or emotions more likely) around a possible outcome yet...but I'm feeling a bit negative this week so here's an alternative take that I hope doesn't happen but...
The west DOES get tired with the length of the war (could be ano 2 years or more), especially if the Republicans win the next US election (Trump, please God no...).
Ukraine regains another 25% of occupied territory but then there's a stalemate.

Putin (yes, still Putin) proposes peace talks again. Ukraine is pushed into compromises by the west. Agreements are made (that will be broken within 3 years...and the cycle will continue......)
Zelensky resigns and is replaced by a leader more accommodating toward the flakey agreements.

I float this scenario because friends of ours living in Zaporizhzhia city are very tired of the war, and it's not suffered like Kherson or Kharkov. She and her son have lost their jobs. Many stores are closed in the city and getting fresh food is increasing difficult....yes, supply lines are open but that's their reality. The city council doesn't clean the streets (although basic rubbish collection happens) and many services are closed.
Air raid sirens every night. Many people selling some of their belongings or veg from their dacha on the streets.
These friends and their neighbours say they wish Ukraine had accepted last year to legally lose Donbas and Crimea.
They were lucky, they weren't in Mariupol, Bucha, Irpin etc....but they still feel exhausted.
Where our in-laws live, South East of Energoda power station, every farming village has had trenches, tank traps, minefields dug on their northern semi circle....many villages like this on or near the road south to Melitopol. It's a HUGE task for Ukraine if the Russians defend.

I haven't given up hope, my wife neither, but our Ukrainian friends on the ground (well some of them) have.
It'll take a major capitulation of Russian troops or supplies, and of course we're still hoping that happens.

Ok, I'll post this and run. When I have a more positive week I'll try again @Eric the meek 😎
 












raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,980
Wiltshire
I found this BBC article (based near Bakhmut) a useful reminder for me:
- the huge number of minefields is a large part of the reason for 'slow' progress
- small anti-personnel mines ('petals') are scattered in great numbers by Russian rockets across the front of their defensive lines, and can be dropped again and again onto territory reclaimed by Ukraine; I had no idea of these scattered, hard to spot mines
- Ukraine frequently pick up Russian phone messages about deserting soldiers and low morale
- Ukrainian officers are confident the low morale of Russians, and the slow but steady approach from Ukraine, will yield breakthroughs soon 🤞

 


driddles

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2003
632
Ontario, Canada
Ukraine will receive F-16 fighter jets before the end of the year, John Kirby, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications

"Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade is inflicting "massive" losses on enemy troops near Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut". Klishchiivka looks like it was a town of around 400 people before the invasion.

Looking at topographical maps Ukraine has taken up positions in the high areas around Klishchiivka and are pummelling the russians. This seems to be the standard approach of Ukraine for the summer offensive, fight like hell for the high ground and then pick off the russians from a superior higher elevation. It's not so much about how much land Ukraine is taking back, it's about the type of land Ukraine takes back.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,980
Wiltshire
This is a really good update from DD. The first half talks through what Girkin said about Putin on Telegram, hence why he's now been arrested. Also talks about the various power factions in Russia.
The second half contains other interesting updates.
 












Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
5,537


'All our hope is in a famine'.

Just to confirm, that hope was deemed appropriate for a gathering purporting to be an economic forum - the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Winning the war is a challenge, but winning the peace, and understanding the Russian view of the world is where the real challenge lies.
It's medieval.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,980
Wiltshire
US general Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Tuesday the Ukrainian drive was “far from a failure” but would be long, hard and bloody.
In the Telegraph on Friday, retired British Army officer Richard Kemp wrote:
The Ukrainians prepared – militarily, politically, financially – to carry out months and potentially years of these attacks to penetrate 1914-18 style defensive belts of tank traps, barbed wire, minefields, bunkers and trench lines? The UK Ministry of Defence has described these Russian fortifications as ‘some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world’.
 








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