[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Marlton and Hove Albion]

Kherson falls, what next?

A long decade of WW1 Trench Warfare. Occasional indiscriminate lobbing of missiles at civilian targets, trillions wasted on various weapons/aid, high oil prices (that help Russia), tens of thousands more dead (if we're lucky), lots of Ukrainian flags on Social Media Bios, various politicians speaking firmly about how tragic it all is, various armament makers laughing at all of us, no Russian sports teams in any competitions.......a lot of next but none of it positive.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

A long decade of WW1 Trench Warfare. Occasional indiscriminate lobbing of missiles at civilian targets, trillions wasted on various weapons/aid, high oil prices (that help Russia), tens of thousands more dead (if we're lucky), lots of Ukrainian flags on Social Media Bios, various politicians speaking firmly about how tragic it all is, various armament makers laughing at all of us, no Russian sports teams in any competitions.......a lot of next but none of it positive.

Even more depressing reading it written down..

 

[sparkie]

Kherson falls, what next?

All roads lead to Melitopol. The next big battle.

 

[Triggaaar]

Fickle bunch, they voted to join Russia a few weeks ago

 

[portslade seagull]

Fickle bunch, they voted to join Russia a few weeks ago

As you would with a kalashnikov aimed at your bonce

 

[ShandyH]

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a lot of relatively sophisticated water craft with weaponry arriving in Ukraine; at least that’s what social media told me. If this is true, there will be a major push for Crimea soon. Those Russian troops in the outer western reaches south of the Dnipro river are very exposed now.

 

[Eeyore]

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a lot of relatively sophisticated water craft with weaponry arriving in Ukraine; at least that’s what social media told me. If this is true, there will be a major push for Crimea soon. Those Russian troops in the outer western reaches south of the Dnipro river are very exposed now.

I would stake a lot on saying that Ukraine has close to zero chance of re-capturing Crimea.

This interview is a far better summary of the earlier point I was trying to make.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

How BIG is Putin's carbon footprint! Totally depressing that this could go on for years..........and years........till he's dead.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

but I think mods etc. prefer to keep this thread about the current war if I understand it right, which is sensible. Would happily discuss the subject elsewhere however.

Choo, Choo all aboard the train destination Bear Pit then…

Choo, Choo

 

[Baldseagull]

I would stake a lot on saying that Ukraine has close to zero chance of re-capturing Crimea.

This interview is a far better summary of the earlier point I was trying to make.

Not for a while, but they can cut Crimea off from Russian supply lines, and if they do that I don't see how Russia can hold it.

 

[sparkie]

I think Crimea would be a lot easier to retake than Donetsk / Luhansk - simply because of the supply lines to Russia.

But Melitopol will be 1st to be liberated.

 

[beorhthelm]

Crimea is essentially a fortress, a couple of land bridges a few kilometers wide. too important for Russia to keep Sevastopol, and less home advantage, its not feasible to take militarily. the end of this war will be resolved with Crimea remaining Russia.

 

[portslade seagull]

I would think Ukranian special forces have already crossed the Dnieper to the east side

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Crimea is essentially a fortress, a couple of land bridges a few kilometers wide. too important for Russia to keep Sevastopol, and less home advantage, its not feasible to take militarily. the end of this war will be resolved with Crimea remaining Russia.

But that importance will have significance for the conflict. If Crimea falls, surely Putin does as well. The relatively small risk of losing Crimea will suck up a lot of Russian men and material.

Once Ukraine get to the south coast, they will be in a much better position to destroy the bridge for good and force the remainder of the black sea fleet backward. Then they can continually harry the logistics, as they've done in Kherson.

I think you're assuming it would be a straight fight, but the Ukranians know there's more than one way to skin a cat. It's a parlous position for the Russian military to be in

 

[GT49er]

I would think Ukranian special forces have already crossed the Dnieper to the east side

Hopefully working with other agencies to bring about the significant and symbolic destruction of the entire Russian Black Sea fleet. That will also be very hard for the Kremlin to 'hide' from the poor sods of Russians who believe their winning a wonderful special military operation.

 

[Weststander]

But that importance will have significance for the conflict. If Crimea falls, surely Putin does as well. The relatively small risk of losing Crimea will suck up a lot of Russian men and material.

Once Ukraine get to the south coast, they will be in a much better position to destroy the bridge for good and force the remainder of the black sea fleet backward. Then they can continually harry the logistics, as they've done in Kherson.

I think you're assuming it would be a straight fight, but the Ukranians know there's more than one way to skin a cat. It's a parlous position for the Russian military to be in

Exactly.

Ukriane don’t get suckered into static battles, an attritional numbers game, trench warfare.

 

[Eeyore]

Crimea is essentially a fortress, a couple of land bridges a few kilometers wide. too important for Russia to keep Sevastopol, and less home advantage, its not feasible to take militarily. the end of this war will be resolved with Crimea remaining Russia.

I'm not sure that Donetsk and Luhansk won't be involved in negotiation.

Again, my point better explained here.



I've not understood Russia's actions here. But I can see what they are doing now. Ukraine will struggle to move further than Kherson. Russia deploys forces to Donbass. If they do take Donbass they can declare the operation over and successful back home. They need to do this as I suspect the climate is getting toxic.

The question is if Ukraine is willing to talk. I wonder if the West has the will to offer support further or not. It has come at some cost to those governments.

I think the West and Russia will be looking for a way out in the coming months. Russia seems a lot closer to achieving it's primary goals (land bridge etc) having now seemingly jettisoned its other goals in the face of the opposition.

 

[beorhthelm]

Exactly.

Ukriane don’t get suckered into static battles, an attritional numbers game, trench warfare.

taking Crimea will be far more static, lacking the space to manoeuvre.

ceding Crimea could be the difference between being over this winter and a protacted conflict over years.

 

[sparkie]

 

[Weststander]

taking Crimea will be far more static, lacking the space to manoeuvre.

ceding Crimea could be the difference between being over this winter and a protacted conflict over years.

Ways and means.

Strangle Russian forces in Crimea of resources, one by one take out hardware from afar or by drones, break the hearts of the genocidal invaders.

Parts of the UK media and the two Putin loving doomongers on nsc got Kherson city totally wrong. Predicting a Stalingrad-esque long winter with 10,000’s dying on both sides. Zelensky, his high command and overseas advisers are too cute … not suckered into that.

All these campaigns take time, an instant news age makes the impatient 2,000 miles away expect fast results. Ukrainians want their country back, they’re used to suffering in times past, they have national pride and patience on their side.