[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,143
Absolutely. If I'm not watching Poirot with Mrs R, this is my favourite detective thread 😀.
It's interesting to try to be in the minds of the Ukrainian group that decides these targets. They must have hundreds of potential targets under analysis for priority and feasibility.
I wonder how much of it comes top down from Budanov, and whether they have specialized analysis teams: refineries, ports, air defense systems, Black Sea...
A far more desirable job than being at the front line.
I wonder too how much of the Ukrainian targeting is assisted and informed by it’s western allies.
 




peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,151
I wonder too how much of the Ukrainian targeting is assisted and informed by it’s western allies.


I'd bet there's a lot of western intelligence operatives and even special forces working under the radar in Ukraine.

US satellites have for sure played a significant role in the safe passage of Ukrainian drones striking on Russia to avoid air defences. That much has been reported.

Publically of course they say they won't get Involved, privately I bet they are on some direct operational levels.
 








Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,843
I started to watch this when the deputy Defence Minister Ivanov was accused of taking bribes. It was food for thought at the time.

But now that Shoigu has been moved, Konstantin Samoilov's thinking resonates louder.

He reminds us of Churchill's quote:

'Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”

 


essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,649
I started to watch this when the deputy Defence Minister Ivanov was accused of taking bribes. It was food for thought at the time.

But now that Shoigu has been moved, Konstantin Samoilov's thinking resonates louder.

He reminds us of Churchill's quote:

'Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”


Reminds me of a tory party conference front row. Thick f***s the lot of them.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,057
Wiltshire
I started to watch this when the deputy Defence Minister Ivanov was accused of taking bribes. It was food for thought at the time.

But now that Shoigu has been moved, Konstantin Samoilov's thinking resonates louder.

He reminds us of Churchill's quote:

'Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”


Very interesting.
Near the end he says "the elites couldn't care less about Ukraine" , presumably he meant the outcome of the invasion.
I wonder how many of the elites (military and business) truly believe in Putin's mantra of restoring mother Russia's power by expanding their borders.
Maybe only the ones that'll directly benefit from getting their hands on the mineral wealth in the east 🤔
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,843
Very interesting.
Near the end he says "the elites couldn't care less about Ukraine" , presumably he meant the outcome of the invasion.
I wonder how many of the elites (military and business) truly believe in Putin's mantra of restoring mother Russia's power by expanding their borders.
Maybe only the ones that'll directly benefit from getting their hands on the mineral wealth in the east 🤔
I can't say I have any idea of the proportion who believe Putin's mantra; it could be none, a handful, most of them or all of them. Very, very little information gets out of the Kremlin, and when it does, can you trust it anyway? All we can do is take a good look at whichever bulldog emerges from under the rug.

I wouldn't discount anything though. It is quite possible that most of them actually believe that NATO is gearing up to attack Russia. If you take the view that they will judge other people by their own low standards, then in their world, everyone else is a gangster and a murderer.

What a deeply and profoundly strange, alien place it is.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,057
Wiltshire
I can't say I have any idea of the proportion who believe Putin's mantra; it could be none, a handful, most of them or all of them. Very, very little information gets out of the Kremlin, and when it does, can you trust it anyway? All we can do is take a good look at whichever bulldog emerges from under the rug.

I wouldn't discount anything though. It is quite possible that most of them actually believe that NATO is gearing up to attack Russia. If you take the view that they will judge other people by their own low standards, then in their world, everyone else is a gangster and a murderer.

What a deeply and profoundly strange, alien place it is.
When you put it like that...yes indeed
 








raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,057
Wiltshire

I'm struggling with this, makes me a bit fearful and sad reading it.
It is a real incursion, but not a huge gain at the moment. It is true that Ukraine will be stretched across the front line to defend it.
As @Ethelwulf says below, there is at least a possibility of it being a partial trap. Ukraine have, in the past, been good at small retreats, sucking in more Russian troops and then destroying them.
We'll know in a few days if Ukraine retreated out of total necessity or whether it can be turned to an advantage...🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
 






Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,143
I’m a fan of Bill Browder. I watched his recent appearance at a parliamentary committee (sorry don’t know how to provide a link) when he strongly argued for the confiscation ( not just freezing) of Russian assets to pay for the defence of Ukraine. In simple terms he asked whether it was more important to respect Putin’s rights to the assets or instead ask western tax payers to fund the war effort.
 


fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,659
in a house
It is a real incursion, but not a huge gain at the moment. It is true that Ukraine will be stretched across the front line to defend it.
As @Ethelwulf says below, there is at least a possibility of it being a partial trap. Ukraine have, in the past, been good at small retreats, sucking in more Russian troops and then destroying them.
We'll know in a few days if Ukraine retreated out of total necessity or whether it can be turned to an advantage...🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
I truly hope you are right. Chatting to my Mum's Ukraine neighbours they said all they can do is hope and believe eventually Ukraine will win out even if it takes ten years. Hope it's a lot sooner than that.
 


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