[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Igzilla]

One could argue that WW2 was won with the dropping of the two atomic bombs, forcing Japan to accept they were beaten and that they had to surrender, the alternative being a protracted campaign which they would still lose but with so many more casualties.

With nuclear weapons being held by both sides (USA/Russia) the dynamic is totally different.

There is a part in this thread specifically laying out the reasons why this is total oversimplification of the reality . Tweet no.17, to be prcise

[tweet]1574668568519655424[/tweet]

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

If Putin is on that stage doing the official signing ceremony about these stolen sorry annexed areas...

Surely a guided drone missile would sort a lot of issues out for everyone.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

The golden doors have opened and Vladimir Putin is now on stage making his speech.
He says the people of the four Ukrainian regions he's planning to annex have made their decision. "The results are known, well known," he says.
"I'm sure that the Federal Assembly will support the four new subjects of Russian Federation... because this is the will of millions of people," Putin says to huge applause.

That's it folks, he has now declared those areas Russian, we wait with baited breath any retaliation after fighting by Ukrainian forces to recapture "Russian Land"

This is the game changer, and we have done nothing, apart from we the west have said we do not recognise Russia's declaration.
Putin must be shaking in his boots.

He goes on to say the results are the "natural right" of those who voted.

We should be taking him out.

 

[vegster]

The golden doors have opened and Vladimir Putin is now on stage making his speech.
He says the people of the four Ukrainian regions he's planning to annex have made their decision. "The results are known, well known," he says.
"I'm sure that the Federal Assembly will support the four new subjects of Russian Federation... because this is the will of millions of people," Putin says to huge applause.

That's it folks, he has now declared those areas Russian, we wait with baited breath any retaliation after fighting by Ukrainian forces to recapture "Russian Land"

This is the game changer, and we have done nothing, apart from we the west have said we do not recognise Russia's declaration.
Putin must be shaking in his boots.

He goes on to say the results are the "natural right" of those who voted.

We should be taking him out.

I'm pretty sure that the Secretary General of the UN has said that the annexation is illegal and a violation of International law...so. this won't be recognised by anyone other than Russia and a few client nations such as North Korea and Myanamar. I think also that Russia is close to being declared a " Terrorist State " in law.

 

[pb21]

I'm pretty sure that the Secretary General of the UN has said that the annexation is illegal and a violation of International law...so. this won't be recognised by anyone other than Russia and a few client nations such as North Korea and Myanamar. I think also that Russia is close to being declared a " Terrorist State " in law.

What is China's stance on this, still sympatric with Putin?

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

I'm pretty sure that the Secretary General of the UN has said that the annexation is illegal and a violation of International law...so. this won't be recognised by anyone other than Russia and a few client nations such as North Korea and Myanamar. I think also that Russia is close to being declared a " Terrorist State " in law.

And...


All of that means what exactly to Russia and over 140 million Russians, so what if a few million leave and there is a brain drain, that leaves who precisely ? The not so clever, the coercible and the nationalistic folk who believe he rhetoric and are willing to believe and die for this us against the west. He can send a nuclear missile and now say it was the only option he had to defend against western attacks on Russian soil, we should not be letting this happen full stop.

We have missed a beat, and he is a step ahead again, it matters not what a jot what we or the west know as right or wrong.
We have now left the Ukrainian people out to dry, they cannot win this now, without the collapse of Putin and this regime.
To be honest it looks like we are unwilling to do that, other than offer weapons, tactical and moral support.

Putin will use a weapon of mass destruction now, in defence of these areas.

 

[A1X]

That's it folks, he has now declared those areas Russian, we wait with baited breath any retaliation after fighting by Ukrainian forces to recapture "Russian Land"

This is the game changer, and we have done nothing, apart from we the west have said we do not recognise Russia's declaration.
Putin must be shaking in his boots.

What should we have done, exactly? Sent the SAS into the Kremlin to steal all the pens?

 

[herecomesaregular]

And...


All of that means what exactly to Russia and over 140 million Russians, so what if a few million leave and there is a brain drain, that leaves who precisely ? The not so clever, the coercible and the nationalistic folk who believe he rhetoric and are willing to believe and die for this us against the west. He can send a nuclear missile and now say it was the only option he had to defend against western attacks on Russian soil, we should not be letting this happen full stop.

We have missed a beat, and he is a step ahead again, it matters not what a jot what we or the west know as right or wrong.
We have now left the Ukrainian people out to dry, they cannot win this now, without the collapse of Putin and this regime.
To be honest it looks like we are unwilling to do that, other than offer weapons, tactical and moral support.

Putin will use a weapon of mass destruction now, in defence of these areas.

I worry that you are stressing yourself out too much over the worst possible outcomes? There are still many possibilities that don't include nuclear weapons and/or global nuclear attacks.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

What should we have done, exactly? Sent the SAS into the Kremlin to steal all the pens?

Pretty facetious reply.

We have let Russia steal Crimea, sat by why he built his army up on the Ukrainian border for months before they invaded, come on.
We have done far too little, and our response now is reactive not proactive.

seems all a bit late and lame to be fair.

 

[The Clamp]

Putin exploits weakness. He is probing right now. Testing what we will or won’t respond to.’Psychobilly is right that we should have acted when he started massing troops on the Ukrainian border.

Look at Putin’s biggest threat so far “if you keep arming Ukraine you will face consequences the likes of which you cannot imagine”
We ignored him and he did….nothing.

If he didn’t have nukes he would have been pounded into dust years ago. But he does have nukes and we have to be careful. I’d like nothing more than to see Putin in the ground. But it’s not that simple.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

I worry that you are stressing yourself out too much over the worst possible outcomes? There are still many possibilities that don't include nuclear weapons and/or global nuclear attacks.

Quite possibly, actually i am not that bothered if we wiped each other off the face of the earth.
my concern is too many people are saying he wont invade Crimea, he wont invade the Ukraine, yet he has, and now with alleged sabotage attacks on pipelines to mainland Europe, he just keeps doing things intelligent folk better and cleverer than i say he wont.

Ah who cares, maybe this is what the world deserves, it is not as if we have looked after the planet and each other, we divide ourselves on racial, religious, nationalistic, and political grounds, its as if we hate each other anyway.


I need a stiff drink

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Pretty facetious reply.

We have let Russia steal Crimea, sat by why he built his army up on the Ukrainian border for months before they invaded, come on.
We have done far too little, and our response now is reactive not proactive.

seems all a bit late and lame to be fair.

The whole time through, our response has seemed to me a little bit, "you're walking down the street and you see someone getting beaten up by 5 blokes. You walk a little faster and think, wow, thank got that wasn't me"

 

[vegster]

Just read a thread on Twitter by a chap called @ Max Seddon on Putin's speech. Sounds like Putin has lost his mind and is blaming the US and the West for expansionist, colonialism and even touched on Satanism !

 

[Eric the meek]

And...


All of that means what exactly to Russia and over 140 million Russians, so what if a few million leave and there is a brain drain, that leaves who precisely ? The not so clever, the coercible and the nationalistic folk who believe he rhetoric and are willing to believe and die for this us against the west. He can send a nuclear missile and now say it was the only option he had to defend against western attacks on Russian soil, we should not be letting this happen full stop.

We have missed a beat, and he is a step ahead again, it matters not what a jot what we or the west know as right or wrong.
We have now left the Ukrainian people out to dry, they cannot win this now, without the collapse of Putin and this regime.
To be honest it looks like we are unwilling to do that, other than offer weapons, tactical and moral support.

Putin will use a weapon of mass destruction now, in defence of these areas.

He didn't use one when Ukraine bombed the arms depot in Crimea. I'm not saying this dictates what he may or may not do with the 4 annexed regions, but it might be a pointer.

I've always been of the opinion that Ukraine and the west have played a blinder, both on and off the pitch. Don't forget that Ukraine is winning the war. Russia is now confined to holding false referenda, eco-vandalism and spiteful bombings of soft civilian targets. This is not a sign of strength. It's a sign of weakness.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Just read a thread on Twitter by a chap called @ Max Seddon on Putin's speech. Sounds like Putin has lost his mind and is blaming the US and the West for expansionist, colonialism and even touched on Satanism !

Lost his mind you say....

won't use nuclear weapons they say....

 

[The Clamp]

I absolutely think Putin will use nuclear weapons. I think it’s inevitable.

 

[vegster]

Ukraine have applied for fast track membership of NATO.

 

[GT49er]

Pretty facetious reply.

We have let Russia steal Crimea, sat by why he built his army up on the Ukrainian border for months before they invaded, come on.
We have done far too little, and our response now is reactive not proactive.

seems all a bit late and lame to be fair.

Still begging the question though - what should we have done?

 

[A1X]

Pretty facetious reply.

We have let Russia steal Crimea, sat by why he built his army up on the Ukrainian border for months before they invaded, come on.
We have done far too little, and our response now is reactive not proactive.

seems all a bit late and lame to be fair.

The Crimea response was too little, I agree. But I fail to see what more the west could have done about the actions today or indeed anything since the invasion this year. We've pumped Ukraine full of as many weapons as we can (well, the US and UK have) and built up a fairly comprehensive sanctions package against Russia. Sure there are a few loose ends we could do (stopping all Russian visas, for example), but there's not a whole lot more we can actually do. Barring extraordinary changes to the way the conflict is being fought, NATO will not directly engage Russian forces in any way, anywhere.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Still begging the question though - what should we have done?

That question is for more intelligent people than me, I guess sit around, throw a few sanctions about, weaponize a nation in defence and sit around and hope for the best, it is then.


Personally I would have sounded the hierarchy in Russia out along time ago, when intelligence could see he was mobilising troops to take Crimea from that very first moment, it was clear that he would not stop there, and facilitated a change.