[Albion] Points to be safe this season

[Bold Seagull]

We can all arbitrarily pick a form period.

If you don’t mind, what’s that look like for calendar year 2020 results, including Watford? Please.

That pretty much is 2020. For Villa and West Ham you have to dip into late Dec. for a 9 game comparison. Why is it arbitrary? I only responded to your point about who was scoring / winning and who wasn't. No idea why I missed out Watford.

Watford P9 pts11 F12 A11

Watford's form last 5 games is the same as ours however;

Brighton P5 pts 4 F5 A6
Watford P5 pts 4 F6 A8

What I don't get is why all these teams below us are all concluded to be in better form? Simply put they're not. They're all struggling. They've all got to 9 games left scoring at under 1ppg. Despite not winning for 9 games, we're still on 1ppg. Our GD is significantly better than everyone below us which can be a big indicator of who is more resilient in a relegation fight.

 

[Weststander]

That pretty much is 2020. For Villa and West Ham you have to dip into late Dec. for a 9 game comparison. Why is it arbitrary? I only responded to your point about who was scoring / winning and who wasn't. No idea why I missed out Watford.

Watford P9 pts11 F12 A11

Watford's form last 5 games is the same as ours however;

Brighton P5 pts 4 F5 A6
Watford P5 pts 4 F6 A8

What I don't get is why all these teams below us are all concluded to be in better form? Simply put they're not. They're all struggling. They've all got to 9 games left scoring at under 1ppg. Despite not winning for 9 games, we're still on 1ppg. Our GD is significantly better than everyone below us which can be a big indicator of who is more resilient in a relegation fight.

Thanks.

Not trick questions, just wondering about your own views, which are always respected!:
1. Do you think Watford will stay up?
2. Ditto … West Ham?

I think Watford will stay up with ease, West Ham probably.

My cautious instinct is that Villa, Bmuff and us will be in a fight to not to join Norwich as relegated.
My optimistic side says we'll beat Arsenal and Newcastle, with some draws, and stay up.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Thanks.

Not trick questions, just wondered about your own views, which are always respected!:
1. Do you think Watford will stay up?
2. Ditto … West Ham?

I think Watford will stay up with ease, West Ham probably.

My cautious instinct is that Villa, Bmuff and us will be in a fight to not join Norwich as relegated.
My optimistic side says we'll beat Arsenal and Newcastle, with some draws, and stay up.

1. Yes
2. Yes

I don't think Watford will stay up with ease. I think they'll get around 8/9 pts at most that will put them on 36/37.
I can see West Ham easily losing their next 4 leading to a massive game home to Burnley on 18 April. If they stay up, in my opinion it will be denying points to Villa and Watford. There is a malaise taken root behind the scenes at WHU that really might effect them for the run-in.

Frustrating as it's been, unlike last season, we've been in every game. 'Could haves' don't = points, but could haves do lead to belief and confidence being retained. Maybe Arsenal is ideal Saturday. A side that will open up against us and expect to win.

The outside side to get drawn back in: Southampton. Many people will have Watford getting 3 pts at home to the Saints in 2 weeks time. If they lose to Norwich Saturday, they could be right back in it. Their fixtures ahead of facing us could easily be 5 defeats if they lose their mojo. Outsider of course, but I could see us going to their place looking to jump them in the table.

 

[Seasidesage]

For all the doom and gloom. Fact is we have 1 defeat in our last 5, but it was against you know who and of course that makes it worse. Scoring is clearly a problem but we are nowhere near as bad as some of the bedwetters would have you believe. It realistically is 3 from 6 but Norwich need to go on a hell of a run. 2 from 5 then. We have to find 2 wins and possibly an extra point for me. The bottom 5 have a lot of games against each other. They cannot all win. I think a total as low as 35 points might be enough but I would want 36/37 to be sure.

 

[schmunk]

Oddschecker still confirms that the gambling public's sentiment is that Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth are all odds-on to be relegated, and West Ham and Watford are more likely than us. Not one bookmaker has us priced below any of those five.

 

[Mellotron]

reckon we need 3 wins and that will scrape it.

I still think we will go down as it stands.

A shock on saturday would change everything though

Arsenal have won twice away all season, so it wouldn't be that huge a shock IMO, given a draw is statistically the most likely outcome.

 

[GT49er]

We'll get more than 4 points.

Whatever the arguments about staying up or not, this is definitely true, I'm sure!

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Oddschecker still confirms that the gambling public's sentiment is that Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth are all odds-on to be relegated, and West Ham and Watford are more likely than us. Not one bookmaker has us priced below any of those five.

I have to object to this post, you're using logic and fact, this isn't permitted in the basement of bedwetting and pessimism.

We'll stay up people, the bookmaker is rarely wrong.

 

[Peter Grummit]

Oddschecker still confirms that the gambling public's sentiment is that Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth are all odds-on to be relegated, and West Ham and Watford are more likely than us. Not one bookmaker has us priced below any of those five.

11/4 to be relegated. All the doommongers will know doubt be lumping on at that price, won't they? Methinks those are the very same 'supporters' who predicted and made a killing from our demise last season...……….....oh.

None of us knows how many points we'll get or whether we'll go down. But the odds are we'll stay up. Which makes those 'we're down, I quite like the Championship' posters, personally, the most annoying at present.

PG

 

[Weststander]

11/4 to be relegated. All the doommongers will know doubt be lumping on at that price, won't they? Methinks those are the very same 'supporters' who predicted and made a killing from our demise last season...……….....oh.

None of us knows how many points we'll get or whether we'll go down. But the odds are we'll stay up. Which makes those 'we're down, I quite like the Championship' posters, personally, the most annoying at present.

PG

Or insurance bets, made for the very first time. £50 @ 10/1, would give a silver lining to the blow of relegation. In a similar way that many NSC’ers made very healthy profits, betting on Villa knocking us out of the LC, once it emerged that Potter was playing kids against their PL stars. Sweetens the pill with some cash.

 

[dangull]

I have to object to this post, you're using logic and fact, this isn't permitted in the basement of bedwetting and pessimism.

We'll stay up people, the bookmaker is rarely wrong.

I have lost many bets at 2/5 odds.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

My gut feeling is that it’s a 50:50 call whether we stay up. I know we have a very helpful points and GD advantage, but we can’t buy a goal. A series of draw and losses will send us down. My positive, blue-tinted side says shirley we’ll win soon ... not based on anything rational at all ... just that things must turn. I admire the supreme confidence of half of NSC that we’re notably better than Villa, Bmuff and West Ham, and will definitely stay up. I haven’t got a clue, I can’t see how anyone can be 95% certain that we’re going down or staying up.

I also don't know, but Saturday's performance and result tipped me back into more-confident-than-not mode. I am also heartened by our last three fixtures being about as good as any relegation-threatened team can hope for at the end of a season, three mid-table teams.

But if and when it comes to that, squeaky-bum time.............. better panic buy some loo roll....

 

[dazzer6666]

I also don't know, but Saturday's performance and result tipped me back into more-confident-than-not mode. I am also heartened by our last three fixtures being about as good as any relegation-threatened team can hope for at the end of a season, three mid-table teams.

But if and when it comes to that, squeaky-bum time.............. better panic buy some loo roll....

It was quite encouraging I thought. In our last few games the Palace result feels awful (because it’s them), but decent draws, away, against the teams in 6th and 7th where we pretty much matched them both, plus coming from behind vs West Ham and Watford shows at least some guts and character. I’m still optimistic. Two wins from the 9, plus a draw or two, and we’ll be alright. Be nice to do over one of the traditional top 6 at the Amex.

 

[Icy Gull]

It was quite encouraging I thought. In our last few games the Palace result feels awful (because it’s them), but decent draws, away, against the teams in 6th and 7th where we pretty much matched them both, plus coming from behind vs West Ham and Watford shows at least some guts and character. I’m still optimistic. Two wins from the 9, plus a draw or two, and we’ll be alright. Be nice to do over one of the traditional top 6 at the Amex.

I remain optimistic yet realistic. We have enough quality to stay up but we will need some luck and better finishing along the way. Palace aside (we should have won) we have played well under recent pressure. We do not look like we are shitting ourselves every time we play, as we did at the end of last season.

 

[Stato]

Since the beginning of 2020 most teams now in the bottom six have played nine games and now have nine games remaining. West Ham played 10 and Villa only 8, with 10 left. If all teams get the same points from their remaining games as they have managed in the games they've played this year:

Brighton would get 6, ending on 35;
West Ham would get 7, ending on 34;
Watford would get 11, ending on 38;
Bournemouth would get 7, ending on 34;
Aston Villa would get 9 ending on 34;
Norwich would get 8 ending on 29.

Some will improve, but not all will. Some may get worse.

This makes me think that 37 may be likely to see a team safe, especially if they have a decent goal difference.

 

[Weststander]

Since the beginning of 2020 most teams now in the bottom six have played nine games and now have nine games remaining. West Ham played 10 and Villa only 8, with 10 left. If all teams get the same points from their remaining games as they have managed in the games they've played this year:

Brighton would get 6, ending on 35;
West Ham would get 7, ending on 34;
Watford would get 11, ending on 38;
Bournemouth would get 7, ending on 34;
Aston Villa would get 9 ending on 34;
Norwich would get 8 ending on 29.

Some will improve, but not all will. Some may get worse.

This makes me think that 37 may be likely to see a team safe, especially if they have a decent goal difference.

A 5Live discussion last week concluded 37 staying up, 36 relegated.

 

[colinz]

Since the beginning of 2020 most teams now in the bottom six have played nine games and now have nine games remaining. West Ham played 10 and Villa only 8, with 10 left. If all teams get the same points from their remaining games as they have managed in the games they've played this year:

Brighton would get 6, ending on 35;
West Ham would get 7, ending on 34;
Watford would get 11, ending on 38;
Bournemouth would get 7, ending on 34;
Aston Villa would get 9 ending on 34;
Norwich would get 8 ending on 29.

Some will improve, but not all will. Some may get worse.

This makes me think that 37 may be likely to see a team safe, especially if they have a decent goal difference.

That's interesting, before the Palace game I did a calculation on what points I thought the other teams would get from their remaining games, and concluded Brighton needed 6 more points to stay up. Watford beating Liverpool was a shock result.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

From our last three games I predicted we would get a point from the team where we got nothing and would get nothing from two games where we got a point from each, it's not easy

 

[Rugrat]

From our last three games I predicted we would get a point from the team where we got nothing and would get nothing from two games where we got a point from each, it's not easy

In which case keep getting it wrong

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

I have lost many bets at 2/5 odds.

Of course you have but what the probability?

I just don't get why so many are so pessimistic.