D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
Your right, utter madness why we still have planes arriving from China.
Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
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Your right, utter madness why we still have planes arriving from China.
*Saving this for prosperity* 'HUNDRED OF MILLIONS?!?!'
Deportivo Seagull
I should coco
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
Agree with you and glad you are in the anti-vaxxer camp. Samples of less than 25 are considered worthless, above they are indicative but need 1000s for robust results.
We dont have time to play Ivory tower professors as there is a lot at stake. Govs have been buying on the markets to maintain confidence as parts of east Asias economy is beginning to shut down because of lack of parts from china.
Got another video by our Prepper Doctor, the scariest thing is a couple of Thais have tested positive after returning from Japan, I think both those countries are screwed. The FO is telling 30,000 brits in Wuhan to return home, I think we are screwed to. Not to be to much of a doomer I think the games going to be containment till cure is made so slowing peoples movement down will buy time for many.
Most of which I just parroted is in the latest vid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yV6IEdPc7AY
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
I agree with you, i was using it to show distortions rather than push a 11% rate. if the Complication rate is 20% then that number would be nearer 2.2% than 11%. As has been said, context and sampling is very easy to mess up.
BBassic
I changed this.
- Jul 28, 2011
- 12,499
Nothing like a nonsense number plucked from thin air.
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
Not really, 5% of 8 billion is 400 million. True there are reasons it prob wont be that blanket outcome, isolated/protected countries, cure developed etc.
BBassic
I changed this.
- Jul 28, 2011
- 12,499
5% being the assumed mortality rate? Which is actually around 2%, from what I can find (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...ls-as-china-predicts-fall-in-mortality-rates/)
I read earlier last week they were estimating the actual number of cases to be around the 100,000 mark (with some cases being less severe than others and thus not requiring hospitilisation) which would put the mortality rate around .49%. Trouble with those cases is being they're not being reported they don't count towards the confirmed case count and so you end up with a 2% mortality rate.
It's all guess work though. We're not privvy to the data.
Personally think 5% is far too high, as is 'hundreds of millions'. But if I end up catching it I'll reply and take my humble pie.
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
I doubt it will be that high(in the 100,000s) but i think the fatality rates going to be about 5%.
This looks hopefull, although a sample of 1....
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailan...fy6152j36oUHHVGQozT5SbHfXfFxeLXzPAiphpl0Nyz-o
GingerBeerMan
3-0
- Dec 29, 2011
- 8,037
- Thread starter
- #210
Mortality rate is deaths/deaths+recovered. As there's a 10 day incubation period and two weeks illness it'll be a while before we see how many recover vs how many die
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
True, but a 2% mortality with a 50% infection rate still gets to 100 million.
But thats why they're keeping everyone quarantined, stopping flights, building new hospitals, so on and so forth. To prevent that happening. But if its too late and starts spreading around the Phillippines, Indonesia, Africa and so on, - places that just can't cope in the same way, could be bad...
But this all gets a bit rubber-necking. Lets hope it fades away and the 'I told you it wasn't serious' brigade are right.
Its just - if it isn't that bad, why have they got curfews in cities? Why have they built two new hospitals in 10 days and then today announced they're converting 11 stadiums and similar in Wuhan into medial centres, with an extra 10,000 beds. That doesn't sound like something minor.... sounds like something that a lot of people are getting seriously ill and needing hospital care. Transfer that to a poor country and it all gets out of control...
Soylent Blue
Banned
- Mar 13, 2019
- 195
So much this, I'd rather be called a wally by all a month from now or so than having my predictions prooved right or worse and have to attend funerals or be guest of honour at one.
I am hoping China decide not to eat anything that moves and close down the selling of live animals in filthy markets but I am not hopeful. They have no animal rights in this country as animals to them are commodities to be traded and sold and now they have this virus to deal with
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D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
We are certainly not getting the full numbers. They say it's 20,000, I say it's more like 50,000. It's scary, sad and I'm preying they can get this thing under control. Vaccines in the pipeline, but then it's about the money.
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
Yep. The Chinese will be going all out for vaccines, if its possible to make one they will.
We're hearing all about Wuhan being completely shut down, a city of 11 million people. But this thing must be spreading through the countryside around there, to villages and hamlets, could it be elderly people are just getting ill and dying without any medical treatment or reporting? Who knows..
And then - they have completely shut down that city and still its growing and spreading. So what happens when it balloons in Beijing, and Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and so on, as it inevitably will. Are they going to shut down those cities too? And if so, what is the impact on the global economy going to be?
Sorry, all a bit hyperbolic and END OF DAYS but - we've never seen this kind of thing before, flights cancelled; borders closed; people being flown home in hazmat suits; businesses, restaurants, hotels shut......... this is the start of a zombie movie
I found this article on the TAIPEI (Taiwan News) it's unverified but if true it would be a very worrying trend.
Taiwan news report As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.
On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.
Feb. 1 chart showing higher numbers (left), chart showing "official" numbers (right). (Internet image)
Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.
Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.
However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.
A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.
Taiwan news report As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.
On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.
Feb. 1 chart showing higher numbers (left), chart showing "official" numbers (right). (Internet image)
Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.
Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.
However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.
A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.
The new scientist reporting
2019-nCoV may return repeatedly like seasonal flu
The “seasonal” reflects the fact that viruses can’t tolerate high heat and humidity, preferring the cool and dry conditions of winter and spring, That’s why flu, as well as the four coronaviruses, are less prevalent in warm, humid months. If the new coronavirus follows suit, then containment efforts plus the arrival of summer should drive infections to near zero.
But also like flu viruses, that doesn’t mean it’s gone.
This reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted. But even 2% is less than SARS’ 10% and nowhere near the 37% of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus). On the other hand, seasonal flu kills fewer than 0.1% of those it infects, though that’s still tens of thousands of deaths a year just in the U.S. The global disaster that was the 1917 “Spanish flu” pandemic killed 2.5%.
2019-nCoV may return repeatedly like seasonal flu
The “seasonal” reflects the fact that viruses can’t tolerate high heat and humidity, preferring the cool and dry conditions of winter and spring, That’s why flu, as well as the four coronaviruses, are less prevalent in warm, humid months. If the new coronavirus follows suit, then containment efforts plus the arrival of summer should drive infections to near zero.
But also like flu viruses, that doesn’t mean it’s gone.
This reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted. But even 2% is less than SARS’ 10% and nowhere near the 37% of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus). On the other hand, seasonal flu kills fewer than 0.1% of those it infects, though that’s still tens of thousands of deaths a year just in the U.S. The global disaster that was the 1917 “Spanish flu” pandemic killed 2.5%.
D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
154,023 sounds more like it. What's more worrying is we don't have any real numbers on those who have recovered. Roll on the summer.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,409
it seems highly unlikely the authorities would share unofficial numbers with a news outlet, much less have that outlet process the data to provide the offical number. they'd simply get the officially sanctioned figures. heres an Australian paper running the story with the images, note also the "+" increments above the numbers bear no relation to previous and current day. its crap data.
