How will you feel if you vote for the losing side in the referendum ?

[5ways]

The nature of prediction, based on hundreds of variables, can never be accurate, especially as time horizons extend.

They, like weather forecasters, are criticised as they are easy targets.

If you think they are rubbish what would you replace them with? The nature of economics involves looking at the behaviour of millions of individual people, firms, governments and externalities interact. We can't predict twenty football matches taking place simultaneously, but it is possible to get more right than wrong. It's the same with economics.

BTW I predicted the 2008 crash as was involved with lecturing subprime debt issuers at the time!


Sent from Konnie Huq's lingerie drawer.

Why is it that 90% of economists, along with all the economic think-tanks and international organisations, think that Brexit will damage our economy? Why do so few economists see an upside to Brexit? JC tells me it doesn't matter because they're always wrong so will be wrong again.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Why is it that 90% of economists, along with all the economic think-tanks and international organisations, think that Brexit will damage our economy? Why do so few economists see an upside to Brexit? JC tells me it doesn't matter because they're always wrong so will be wrong again.

JC and a few of the other brexiters on here know more though

 

[El Presidente]

Why is it that 90% of economists, along with all the economic think-tanks and international organisations, think that Brexit will damage our economy? Why do so few economists see an upside to Brexit? JC tells me it doesn't matter because they're always wrong so will be wrong again.

If you are keen for a divorce, and the other party, who does not want a divorce, holds the terms to the settlement, you will suffer financially.

At the same time you may be better off emotionally, or you may not.

I think most Brexiteers concede that the economy will suffer initially from a successful leave vote.

In fact it's already started

www.recruitmentgrapevine.com/article/2016-06-16-how-a-brexit-could-effect-graduate-recruitment

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The nature of prediction, based on hundreds of variables, can never be accurate, especially as time horizons extend.

They, like weather forecasters, are criticised as they are easy targets.

If you think they are rubbish what would you replace them with? The nature of economics involves looking at the behaviour of millions of individual people, firms, governments and externalities interact. We can't predict twenty football matches taking place simultaneously, but it is possible to get more right than wrong. It's the same with economics.

BTW I predicted the 2008 crash as was involved with lecturing subprime debt issuers at the time!

Brexit forecast from IMF today is a fair assessment, looks at a range of outcomes, and has a best/worst case scenario.

Patrick Minford (my old HoD) is a nice old duffer, but was an architect and defender of the Poll Tax, I'll say no more than that.


Sent from Konnie Huq's lingerie drawer.

I wouldn't replace them with anything as from my admittedly completely layman perspective the economists forecasts on Brexit are not a significant issue because this is an unprecedented situation with too many variables. Which make their already dubious powers of predictions even more unreliable.

Congrats on predicting the 2008 crash. According to the sources I have seen the vast majority of economists didn't see it coming similar to most other recessions.

PS Why aren't you living on your own island in the Caribbean instead of lecturing?

 

[Hampster Gull]

""If the UK wants a treaty of commercial access to the European market, the British will have to contribute to the European budget like the Norwegians or the Swiss. If London doesn't want that, then the exit will have to be total,"........French economy minister.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Why is it that 90% of economists, along with all the economic think-tanks and international organisations, think that Brexit will damage our economy? Why do so few economists see an upside to Brexit? JC tells me it doesn't matter because they're always wrong so will be wrong again.

No he doesn't he just says a consensus view doesn't mean they are right as history shows. If you hadn't continually presented their predictions as a certainty/fact this wouldn't even be an issue.

 

[East Preston Gull]

Why is it that 90% of economists, along with all the economic think-tanks and international organisations, think that Brexit will damage our economy? Why do so few economists see an upside to Brexit? JC tells me it doesn't matter because they're always wrong so will be wrong again.

600 economists were asked and a third replied. 90% of those who replied said Brexit would be bad. Economists were wrong about Maggies first budget, ERM, Euro, lied about Greece, didn't see 1991 recession coming, didn't see 2008 mini recession coming. Economists are next to useless.
The markets are worried about Japanese currency, China slowdown. Brazil finance, Venezuela finance, Brexit, Trump getting power, German elections and French elections in 2017, Albania joining the Euro, Greece defaulting, Italy collapsing, North Korea nuclear weapons, Sanctions against Russia, Saudi Arabia renewelable energy plan, Saudi Arabia inviting investment to be less reliant on Fuel, high oil prices, low oil prices. They are always worried about something and too often dictate policy.
Vote Leave

Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk

 

[The Rivet]

""If the UK wants a treaty of commercial access to the European market, the British will have to contribute to the European budget like the Norwegians or the Swiss. If London doesn't want that, then the exit will have to be total,"........French economy minister.

Yawn................................zzzz French Economy Minister spouting bollocks that equates to Napoleon calling us a nation of shopkeepers. That worked well didn't it.

 

[El Presidente]

I wouldn't replace them with anything as from my admittedly completely layman perspective the economists forecasts on Brexit are not a significant issue because this is an unprecedented situation with too many variables. Which make their already dubious powers of predictions even more unreliable.

Congrats on predicting the 2008 crash. According to the sources I have seen the vast majority of economists didn't see it coming similar to most other recessions.

PS Why aren't you living on your own island in the Caribbean instead of lecturing?

You say they have dubious powers of prediction, but that's not the case. Their record is pretty good given the range of variables involved, but, like weather forecasters, they are ignored when they get it right.

As for 2008, I'm far too timid to play the markets. I don't gamble, drink, smoke, take drugs or even drive fast....................but I am going to hell.

2008 was easy, lend to good borrowers, but then to riskier ones, and start a game of pass the parcel with the debt. Eventually the music has to stop and someone is left holding worthless paper.

The nature of the questions the city boys asked was always to do with how to circumnavigate the regulations, rather than apply rules from an ethical standpoint.

I knew it would be bad, but never THAT bad TBH.

Big question, in your eyes, what is worse? Economists or Palace fans?




Sent from Konnie Huq's lingerie drawer.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Yawn................................zzzz French Economy Minister spouting bollocks that equates to Napoleon calling us a nation of shopkeepers. That worked well didn't it.

He will be across the table spouting this during our negotiation on trying to access their market. England will be lauded by other exiters across the eu so expect a very rough ride as they know this will be a precedent

 

[The Rivet]

He will be across the table spouting this during our negotiation on trying to access their market. England will be lauded by other exiters across the eu so expect a very rough ride as they know this will be a precedent

Yep rough ride, who cares? Bring it on!

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Out without a doubt

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You say they have dubious powers of prediction, but that's not the case. Their record is pretty good given the range of variables involved, but, like weather forecasters, they are ignored when they get it right.

As for 2008, I'm far too timid to play the markets. I don't gamble, drink, smoke, take drugs or even drive fast....................but I am going to hell.

2008 was easy, lend to good borrowers, but then to riskier ones, and start a game of pass the parcel with the debt. Eventually the music has to stop and someone is left holding worthless paper.

The nature of the questions the city boys asked was always to do with how to circumnavigate the regulations, rather than apply rules from an ethical standpoint.

I knew it would be bad, but never THAT bad TBH.

Big question, in your eyes, what is worse? Economists or Palace fans?




Sent from Konnie Huq's lingerie drawer.

I would like to see any data that shows a majority of economists having a good track record in successfully forecasting events similar to the Brexit scenario or even recessions.

I have no real problem with economists just get annoyed when people continually suggest their forecasts are statements of fact.

As you know Palace fans are the lowest form of life on the planet.

 

[El Presidente]

I would like to see any data that shows a majority of economists having a good track record in successfully forecasting events similar to the Brexit scenario or even recessions.

I have no real problem with economists just get annoyed when people continually suggest their forecasts are statements of fact.

As you know Palace fans are the lowest form of life on the planet.

No economic predictions are statements of fact. They are based on probable outcomes and cover a range of possibilities.

It's nice to know I'm one rung up the evolutionary scale than a Palace fan though.

Have a good night!

 

[vegster]

So how should we view the opinions of Obama,Lagarde,and all the other foreigners sticking their oar in?

Do these people stand to gain in cold hard cash like The Digger ?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

So how should we view the opinions of Obama,Lagarde,and all the other foreigners sticking their oar in?

Like Rupert Murdoch you mean ?

 

[yxee]

I suspect the Brexit voters will take it a lot worse than the remains if they lose....

The exact opposite of that.

 

[5ways]

No he doesn't he just says a consensus view doesn't mean they are right as history shows. If you hadn't continually presented their predictions as a certainty/fact this wouldn't even be an issue.

Changing your tune here JC. You've bashed the predictive power of economists repeatedly. I'm not predicting them as certainty I'm saying that if 9/10 of any group of experts, be it a doctors, mechanics or economists are saying the same thing then it is very much worth taking what they say on board.

Moreover economists very rarely line-up so decisively in one column. It is impossible to brush off. Especially when you add the opinion of the IMF, OECD, OBR, IFS, LSE, Treasury, BoE etc that all say a mixture of the following thing: Brexit will cause a recession, it will raise unemployment, investment will shrink, the pound will crash in value, austerity will be extended or taxes will rise.

If all these august institutions said exactly the opposite I would happily line up with Leave.

 

[beorhthelm]

Changing your tune here JC. You've bashed the predictive power of economists repeatedly. I'm not predicting them as certainty I'm saying that if 9/10 of any group of experts, be it a doctors, mechanics or economists are saying the same thing then it is very much worth taking what they say on board.

Moreover economists very rarely line-up so decisively in one column. It is impossible to brush off.

once again i feel compelled to point out that economist are regularly incorrect in their predictions (on precision they are virtually never correct) and institutions frequently form a consensus. just because recently IMF and BoE were at differing views on UK economy doesnt mean they always are. they are all working from the same raw data and using the same base models, so they arrive at the same place give or take some %. if there is a flaw in data or model, it leads to the same flawed conclusion. there's a Cass business school professor who has illustrated how they are all using a particular set of models (gravity model of trade iirc) to arrive at a particular conclusion, in short they assume only negatives and no positives.

the major problem isnt that they have reached a consensus - leaving the EU would probably have some negative effect - its that they project such a massive effect and one that is so immediate, when the changes brought about by a exit would not be seen for years. just look at the claims of reduced investment vs weaker £, they are contradictory as a weaker £ would attract inward investment (assets become cheaper). trade doesnt stop and tariffs not imposed on June 24th 2016 or even 2017, but some point in the future, maybe. all this should make you wonder what exactly the economic insitutions are worried about, essentially they are fearful of the impact of brexit on the rest of the EU project and the subsequent down turn in the economy. they dont publish those models and predictions though.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Changing your tune here JC. You've bashed the predictive power of economists repeatedly. I'm not predicting them as certainty I'm saying that if 9/10 of any group of experts, be it a doctors, mechanics or economists are saying the same thing then it is very much worth taking what they say on board.

Moreover economists very rarely line-up so decisively in one column. It is impossible to brush off. Especially when you add the opinion of the IMF, OECD, OBR, IFS, LSE, Treasury, BoE etc that all say a mixture of the following thing: Brexit will cause a recession, it will raise unemployment, investment will shrink, the pound will crash in value, austerity will be extended or taxes will rise.

If all these august institutions said exactly the opposite I would happily line up with Leave.

No change of tune just correcting your strawman misrepresentation of my pov. You have repeatedly presented their predictions as certainties which has annoyed numerous peeps.