[Football] Going to the Game Saturday or Staying away because of Corona Virus?

[Lower West Stander]

Yes, like China, South Korea and Italy - and, probably, the UK next week.

The point is/was, saying only 11 people have been diagnosed in Sussex isn't helpful. Thousands could unknowingly have it, and pass it on to thousands more. It's a hidden virus. It takes six or so days to show itself.... It's not flu.... This is not sinking in, is it?!

Have you gone out at all?

If so you’re a hypocrite.


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[Mellotron]

We absolutely ARE seeing exponential growth. At the start of this growth, where we currently are, where relatively small numbers are in play there may be the odd day where limited spread is reported. That does not mean things are improving, nor that "we've got a grip" on it. Anything who thinks that is going to be in for a shock in the near future.

I've seen nothing to suggest this has has an r0 (the amount of people an infected person spreads the virus to) is anything like as low as 0.5. The current estimate seems to be 2.2, which I think has come down from estimates a week or two back.

Exponential growth means a growing percentage of new cases in comparison to the total number of cases. Please show your working out that we are experiencing this in the UK.

 

[Wozza]

Have you gone out at all?

If so you’re a hypocrite.

I'm following work/government advice. I'm taking hygiene advice very seriously, not shaking hands etc. And I'm keeping my kids (who could easily have it at school and not yet know it) away from their grandparents (who are very high risk).

What I'm not doing is downplaying the risk, dangerously misinterpreting figures on messageboards to misguide others, fobbing it off as flu etc.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Crowd likely to be around 25000 I would think. Seems 4 in 5 are going to get it anyway so why miss this game ? might be the last one for a while

 

[Bozza]

Exponential growth means a growing percentage of new cases in comparison to the total number of cases. Please show your working out that we are experiencing this in the UK.

I know what exponential growth means.

Jnauary 31st - UK gets 1st case
March 5th - UK hits 87 cases
March 10th - UK hits 373 cases

As I say, at the moment when numbers are still small, you could pick any given day and try and take hope that things are slowing. I don't believe that from all the expert epidemiologists talking about this.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Crowd likely to be around 25000 I would think. Seems 4 in 5 are going to get it anyway so why miss this game ? might be the last one for a while

I'm still going (If Arsenal turn up)

The only thing with this 4 out of 5, 80% malarkey, is that if the virus didn't manage to get 80% infection rates on a cruise ship, which I would have thought would have ideal conditions for transfer, I struggle to see what basis there is for thinking it will hit 80% in less favourable conditions

 

[Mellotron]

I know what exponential growth means.

Jnauary 31st - UK gets 1st case
March 5th - UK hits 87 cases
March 10th - UK hits 373 cases

As I say, at the moment when numbers are still small, you could pick any given day and try and take hope that things are slowing. I don't believe that from all the expert epidemiologists talking about this.

So you acknowledge the % growth per day is actually slowing? ie bell curve growth, exactly what is to be expected from this virus, exactly the same as SARS, MERS, other viruses of similar types.

 

[Nobby]

I know what exponential growth means.

Jnauary 31st - UK gets 1st case
March 5th - UK hits 87 cases
March 10th - UK hits 373 cases

As I say, at the moment when numbers are still small, you could pick any given day and try and take hope that things are slowing. I don't believe that from all the expert epidemiologists talking about this.

As I have Mellotron on ignore, would you just ask him politely if he needs any help with Maths. I tutor a basic Maths course part time.

 

[highflyer]

Have you gone out at all?

If so you’re a hypocrite.


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Bullsh*t.
It's not a binary thing (do nothing vs do everything)

It's all about that graph. Asking everyone to modify their behaviour a bit in order to slow the spread sufficiently that the health system does not become overwhelmed (because that is when the sh*t will REALLY hit the fan).

No need to panic, and also no need to get macho and pretend it's not real. Just be sensible, be altruistic in how you act and understand that this is about more than you. And listen to doctors.That's it I think.

 

[Mellotron]

Crowd likely to be around 25000 I would think. Seems 4 in 5 are going to get it anyway so why miss this game ? might be the last one for a while

 

[Bozza]

So you acknowledge the % growth per day is actually slowing? ie bell curve growth, exactly what is to be expected from this virus, exactly the same as SARS, MERS, other viruses of similar types.

What I'm saying is I have no reason to believe that we will buck the trend of number of cases doubling approximately every six days, and that this will very soon lead to a very large number of infected people that causes the NHS to be overwhelmed.

 

[Publius Ovidius]

FFS. It’s flu. Currently, the global death toll is <.01% of those who died of the Spanish flu pandemic. Get a grip FFS.

Rant over.

Italy has just around 10,200 cases of Coronavirus with 639 dead. That's over 6% mortality rate and 877 people in intensive care. Thats nearly 9% of cases needing critical care.
Since October Italy had 2,768,000 cases of flu, with 240 deaths - less than 0.01% mortality.
This is not just a bad case of flu.


Haven’t any details of where this was picked from but it is very interesting!

But hey, you are fine.

 

[Weststander]

Anyone else think that there is now a very good chance that this weekend’s game is more likely to be cancelled than played?

I’m thinking along the lines that this will be the last match we’re be allowed to watch this season.

And thus our last attendance at a PL match for a couple of decades.

 

[papajaff]

Working down in Czech currently, back for 24 hours purely for the Arsenal game.

Methinks a wasted expensive journey. No flight refund.

 

[Fred Oliver - Legend]

Your opinion.

I 100% agree with him.


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I have 2 children with Cystic Fibrosis, if they were to catch covid then they will be done for, it’s the people that are treating this as ‘just flu’ that are causing all the trouble and concern. This is NOT just the flu, and anyone that keeps saying it is should be banned from writing and talking.

 

[Publius Ovidius]

As I have Mellotron on ignore, would you just ask him politely if he needs any help with Maths. I tutor a basic Maths course part time.

I am glad it is not only me who has him on “ oh do **** off” mode

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I was very surprised Cheltenham went ahead this week with 260 000 people over 4 days. This thing is going to bite soon and hard. A lot of covid 19 deniers out there atm that all think it is a fuss over nothing

 

[RandyWanger]

I'll be there if it's on.

 

[Nobby]

I have 2 children with Cystic Fibrosis, if they were to catch covid then they will be done for, it’s the people that are treating this as ‘just flu’ that are causing all the trouble and concern. This is NOT just the flu, and anyone that keeps saying it is should be banned from writing and talking.

This [emoji22]

I’m alright Jacks

 

[Blue3]

Planning to go but I would not be surprised if it was postponed