General Election 2015

[Buzzer]

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

I wonder what Ed will do now that one of his policies has become absolutely pointless - i.e. an energy price freeze ?

Stick with it - http://www.labour.org.uk/issues/detail/energy

Making consumers pay more.

 

[beorhthelm]

Stick with it - http://www.labour.org.uk/issues/detail/energy

Making consumers pay more.

well he does have form in this area.

 

[Stato]

Very interesting figures. The key is reaching 326 and its a challenge to see how parties could do it.

As I understand it, the SNP have said that they would deal with Labour, but would not be a coalition partner. The Lib Dems could swing either way, but would seem less likely to go with the Tories if the coalition also involved UKIP. This could leave the Tories looking to the Irish loyalists, or Labour looking to Plaid Cymru. The complications involved have started making me think that a minority administration may be more likely than another coalition. This could mean that we could all be doing this again next year.

 

[beorhthelm]

the most interesting thing about these numbers is how they highlight that a success for SNP keeps Labour out of office. unless they forge a Labour/Liberal/SNP coalition and i cant see that holding together.

apparently there's money backing two elections this year, sounding more and more likely.

 

[Brighton Mod]

I wonder what Ed will do now that one of his policies has become absolutely pointless - i.e. an energy price freeze ?

With a price freeze people would be paying more for their fuel than the current market rate if it slips as is going on now. Freze to my interpretation means frozen in time, not moving, static. Doesn't look like either Ed thought that one through. There'll be more to come don't worry, you can't make policy on the hoof like they do and get away with it.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

People talk about 326 - when in reality you only need 319 to win.

326 is obviously what you need for half of 650, but -1 for the Speaker, and then -6/7 for SF who obviously don't take the oath and don't go to Parliament then the maths does change.
However the numbers just don't add up for anyone at the moment, another election come October and a Tory Majority as they can mobilise their vote better.

 

[Brighton Mod]

Bulldozed academies bill without proper debate: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-10664722
Allowed unqualified teachers in academies: http://www.theguardian.com/educatio...alified-teachers-state-funded-schools-england
Introduced examinations which tested things that are irrelevant and out of date to the detriment of teaching children how to learn for themselves: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/educatio...ests-and-targets-are-damaging-childhoods.html
Gave away 2,000 schools to private organisations with no charge: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/open-academies-and-academy-projects-in-development
Sowed the seeds for a school places crisis by deliberately preventing local authorities from opening new schools for ideological reasons: http://www.local.gov.uk/media-releases/-/journal_content/56/10180/5416718/NEWS (Free schools mean that anyone can open a new school. Anyone except those who have been doing it successfully for the last 100 years. They can't for no other reason than that they are part of the public sector.)
Allowed academies to sell playing fields: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/educatio...g-fields-can-be-sold-off-ministers-admit.html. (By the way, the restrictions on community schools using land to extend schools have been made tighter at the same time and the rules about how much playing field is required are more generous for academies and free schools than for everyone else.)

Of course the previous administration built a lot more schools and created many academies, but, they didn't pay for them, they used PFI which we, our children, our grandchidren will be paying for until we have to give them back and refinance them all again. Pay twice, three times, four times, five times.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

the most interesting thing about these numbers is how they highlight that a success for SNP keeps Labour out of office. unless they forge a Labour/Liberal/SNP coalition and i cant see that holding together.

apparently there's money backing two elections this year, sounding more and more likely.

Given we now have a fixed term, and apart from a vote of no confidence, what other mechanisms exist for a second election?

 

[Pavilionaire]

The key thing about that is the prediction that UKIP will slip 5% and the Tories will go up by 4%, presumably as a direct result.

Is it likely that 28% of current kippers will defect between now and the election? That's the figure that turns their 18% to the 13% predicted. That's another way of saying 3 out 10 UKIP voters are protest voting and will vote for someone else come the election.

It will be interesting to see how the election campaign goes, particularly the Lib Dem campaign. They need to re-establish themselves, regain identity and credibility, yet cannot run down the Tories because there's a good chance they'll be forming another coalition with them in May.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I wonder what Ed will do now that one of his policies has become absolutely pointless - i.e. an energy price freeze ?

Why is it pointless? Are you suggesting energy prices will never rise again?

 

[Soulman]

Of course the previous administration built a lot more schools and created many academies, but, they didn't pay for them, they used PFI which we, our children, our grandchidren will be paying for until we have to give them back and refinance them all again. Pay twice, three times, four times, five times.

Exactly. As iv'e stated before just the 3 schools and 1 hospital (RSCH Brighton ) i worked on in Sussex in 2003-07 were all built and paid for by Building companies and leased back equipment and all for the next 30 YEARS.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The key thing about that is the prediction that UKIP will slip 5% and the Tories will go up by 4%, presumably as a direct result.

Is it likely that 28% of current kippers will defect between now and the election? That's the figure that turns their 18% to the 13% predicted. That's another way of saying 3 out 10 UKIP voters are protest voting and will vote for someone else come the election.

It will be interesting to see how the election campaign goes, particularly the Lib Dem campaign. They need to re-establish themselves, regain identity and credibility, yet cannot run down the Tories because there's a good chance they'll be forming another coalition with them in May.

I really cannot see the Tories and the Liberals forming another coalition. I cannot see any appetite from either side. They don't have to form a coalition even if the voting somehow suggests they should.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Given we now have a fixed term, and apart from a vote of no confidence, what other mechanisms exist for a second election?

That's exactly what it would be, a vote of no confidence, or something along the lines of not having a functioning majority to govern. Although we have FTP it isn't in a codified constitution, so IF we needed to, the HOC could say right we need an election and pass a motion allowing the dissolving of the House.

Alternatively if after May 7th the numbers just don't work for anyone, and a Government can't be formed then we would just go the polls again shortly after, no need more a vote of NC.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

I really cannot see the Tories and the Liberals forming another coalition. I cannot see any appetite from either side. They don't have to form a coalition even if the voting somehow suggests they should.

The LD's privately do get on with the Tories, If it keeps them both in power, don't count it out at all. I met two MP's last week, from both parties, and both did not shy away from it.

If there was going to be a coalition that could last, it would be CON/LD/DUP.

 

[Simster]

People talk about 326 - when in reality you only need 319 to win.

326 is obviously what you need for half of 650, but -1 for the Speaker, and then -6/7 for SF who obviously don't take the oath and don't go to Parliament then the maths does change.
However the numbers just don't add up for anyone at the moment, another election come October and a Tory Majority as they can mobilise their vote better.

It really is appalling that a party can't take their seat if they don't want to swear allegiance to the queen. Not very democratic is it?

 

[Titanic]

That's exactly what it would be, a vote of no confidence, or something along the lines of not having a functioning majority to govern. Although we have FTP it isn't in a codified constitution, so IF we needed to, the HOC could say right we need an election and pass a motion allowing the dissolving of the House.

Alternatively if after May 7th the numbers just don't work for anyone, and a Government can't be formed then we would just go the polls again shortly after, no need more a vote of NC.

The largest party would be under considerable pressure to form a minority government... and run the country based on achieving sufficient consensus among the elected representatives - by bring forward a widely acceptable program of measures. I suspect failure to reach this consensus would result in the uncooperative party/parties being judged very harshly by the electorate if a further election was necessary.

 

[Simster]

I really cannot see the Tories and the Liberals forming another coalition. I cannot see any appetite from either side. They don't have to form a coalition even if the voting somehow suggests they should.

They have held a coalition together for five years without much of a hint that it will break up. If anything, I reckon privately that the Lib Dems are pleasantly surprised at how well it's gone for them. However personally, I think I'd rather see a minority government than a coalition, of whatever hue. The problem is that in a coalition, you can't really see who's accountable for policy.

 

[Cian]

Given we now have a fixed term, and apart from a vote of no confidence, what other mechanisms exist for a second election?

Failure to pass a budget (loss of supply) causes an end also, does it not?


If the putative single Unionist candidates happen in some NI seats without the same happening on the SF/SDLP side there may be one or two UUP-aligned candidates to throw on the Tory pile, whip-wise.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I really cannot see the Tories and the Liberals forming another coalition. I cannot see any appetite from either side. They don't have to form a coalition even if the voting somehow suggests they should.

I can see it happening - a case of "better the devil you know" for the politicians. Why wouldn't the Lib Dems do it? They get to be in the government for a second time in a row, safe in the knowledge that they have a 5-year proven record of working with the Tories. They also be keen to protect their legacy and build on their achievements of this parliament.

Similarly, the Tories will not want to risk coalition with UKIP because if the voters vote to stay in the EU Referendum UKIP are shot, the government will probably be brought down and the Tories will lose credibility. If they're in coalition with the Lib Dems and we vote to stay in the EU then the Tories will be able to mop up the defunct UKIP support over the life of the parliament and win a majority in 2020.