General Election 2015

[n1 gull]

Lib dems are notoriously hard to unseat

Agree they have strong local appeal but I hope starting with Norman Baker a few lose their seats

 

[Gwylan]

Agree they have strong local appeal but I hope starting with Norman Baker a few lose their seats

Hmm... if Norman Baker loses his seat, we're in for a Tory landslide - there's nothing in the polls to suggest that's even a remote possibility

 

[ROSM]

Hmm... if Norman Baker loses his seat, we're in for a Tory landslide - there's nothing in the polls to suggest that's even a remote possibility

I'm going to hate myself for saying it, but even Norman Baker would be a significant improvement on maria caulfield , the tory candidate.

 

[ROSM]

Hmm... if Norman Baker loses his seat, we're in for a Tory landslide - there's nothing in the polls to suggest that's even a remote possibility

I'm going to hate myself for saying it, but even Norman Baker would be a significant improvement on maria caulfield , the tory candidate.

 

[TomandJerry]

The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, has declared that he will try to work with David Cameron if possible to block a Labour government supported by the Scottish National party. These are Farage’s strongest comments yet signalling that he wants to prop up a Conservative administration in exchange for an immediate vote on the EU and higher defence spending.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

I'm going to hate myself for saying it, but even Norman Baker would be a significant improvement on maria caulfield , the tory candidate.

why?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I'm going to hate myself for saying it, but even Norman Baker would be a significant improvement on maria caulfield , the tory candidate.

I don't have much of an issue with Norman Baker personally. He seems an okay person and was doing what he felt was right and who could blame him. And he correctly predicted the hotel didn't he!

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Indeed Nick Clegg seems hell bent on not losing his one at the cabinet table

Just a pity he may lose the important one in Sheffield

Clegg will win easily, the Tories are saying he is wonderful in their own literature to help ensure this. Labour have never won Hallam

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, has declared that he will try to work with David Cameron if possible to block a Labour government supported by the Scottish National party. These are Farage’s strongest comments yet signalling that he wants to prop up a Conservative administration in exchange for an immediate vote on the EU and higher defence spending.

Interesting statement but his one, possibly two, seats won't hold much sway against the anti-Tory parties.

 

[Ernest]

No sign of a manifesto bounce for the Tories as the You Gov poll shows Labour still in the lead, 3 weeks to go till the glorious day [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION]

 

[Machiavelli]

Mike Smithson [MENTION=20472]msmith[/MENTION]sonPB
For fourth consecutive night LAB have lead in YouGov Sun poll
CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

Don't forget:
-- the Tories have to be ahead of Lab by about a couple of percentage points in order to get the same number of seats
-- what really matters is what's going on in the Lab-Con marginals, and the consistent and current evidence points towards Lab doing much better
Lab as largest party, but without a majority is still the most likely scenario

 

[Ernest]

Funny but the Sun only mentions it's own poll when it has the Tories in front, when Labour are in front it puts crap about Ed Miliband's kitchen on the front page instead. I don't think they have quite worked out that social media is ridiculing them and their attempts at smears are having the opposite effect.

 

[Bozza]

Don't forget:
-- the Tories have to be ahead of Lab by about a couple of percentage points in order to get the same number of seats
-- what really matters is what's going on in the Lab-Con marginals, and the consistent and current evidence points towards Lab doing much better
Lab as largest party, but without a majority is still the most likely scenario

You must be absolutely FILLING your boots with the bookies, I imagine.

 

[Machiavelli]

Funny but the Sun only mentions it's own poll when it has the Tories in front, when Labour are in front it puts crap about Ed Miliband's kitchen on the front page instead. I don't think they have quite worked out that social media is ridiculing them and their attempts at smears are having the opposite effect.

Do you think [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] works for The Sun?

 

[Jim D]

Mike Smithson [MENTION=20472]msmith[/MENTION]sonPB
For fourth consecutive night LAB have lead in YouGov Sun poll
CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

Don't forget:
-- the Tories have to be ahead of Lab by about a couple of percentage points in order to get the same number of seats
-- what really matters is what's going on in the Lab-Con marginals, and the consistent and current evidence points towards Lab doing much better
Lab as largest party, but without a majority is still the most likely scenario

How does this work with Labour set to lose 40 seats in Scotland?

 

[Machiavelli]

You must be absolutely FILLING your boots with the bookies, I imagine.

View attachment 64631

How about we come to some agreement: I'll put the same amount of money as you do on a bet? I'll go for this market (as the odds are better for Labour); and you can go, for instance, for the Tories forming a government (either minority, confidence-and-supply, or coalition) where the odds are fairly similar. See:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government

Name your price (within reason).

 

[Ernest]

How does this work with Labour set to lose 40 seats in Scotland?

Set to doesn't actually mean WILL do

 

[Machiavelli]

How does this work with Labour set to lose 40 seats in Scotland?

With this comment, you're expecting the FPTP electoral system to deliver a fair or logical result. That's not what it's designed for; it's designed to provide clarity, and a clear government. (That it didn't do this at the last election or this one might just suggest that it's time has past.)
At the last election Lab had c29% of the vote, the Tories c36%, yet the difference in seats was less than 50 (258 vs 306). This is basically because the Tories have a large number of constituencies (mostly in the south-east) where they get resounding majorities. Labour's majorities aren't so resounding. So, if you combine both the points I've made, you'll get the clearest answer to your question (and the SNP doesn't really come into it). Lab-Con marginals mean that not only does one party gain a seat, the other one doesn't despite being close. This obviously doesn't pertain to Lab-SNP marginals.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

I find myself watching the build up to this election like a game between Palace and Pompey. It’s impossible to like any of them

I’m naturally a Labour voter but if Ed ‘not even the best politician in his own family’ Milliband is the best they have to offer, I can’t bring myself to vote. The equivalent to me is putting Sami Hyypia in charge of the Albion. How we hasn’t been ousted would be a mystery until you see the eminently unlikeable characters like Balls and Harman waiting in the wings. Simon Danczuk called that one right

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ob-says-labour-mp-simon-danczuk-10127466.html

Equally, the thought of an alliance between them and the SNP sends a shiver down my spine. So the SNP, who don’t want to be part of Britain, all of sudden carry the balance of power in British politics and all English issues. How does that work?

On the flip side, the current administration don’t really deserve a 2nd go. Cameron seems to have few passionate causes and policy will change with public opinion, Clegg hasn’t kicked up enough stink to have any clout and Osbourne wouldn’t be out of place as the baddie in your local theatres Christmas pantomime. The whole ‘we are all in the together’ mantra sticks in your throat when the only policies pushed through have been 50% tax and the like.

So who am I going to vote for? Bloody UKIP or the Greens. The reason? The only parties where I live who are anti HS2. It matters not, as my local Tory MP has a 12K majority / 53 % vote share but the choice of those 2 makes me feel like a fecking student again. The only other option is Monster raving looney candidate (yes, really)

 

[glasfryn]

I find myself watching the build up to this election like a game between Palace and Pompey. It’s impossible to like any of them

I’m naturally a Labour voter but if Ed ‘not even the best politician in his own family’ Milliband is the best they have to offer, I can’t bring myself to vote. The equivalent to me is putting Sami Hyypia in charge of the Albion. How we hasn’t been ousted would be a mystery until you see the eminently unlikeable characters like Balls and Harman waiting in the wings. Simon Danczuk called that one right

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ob-says-labour-mp-simon-danczuk-10127466.html

Equally, the thought of an alliance between them and the SNP sends a shiver down my spine. So the SNP, who don’t want to be part of Britain, all of sudden carry the balance of power in British politics and all English issues. How does that work?

On the flip side, the current administration don’t really deserve a 2nd go. Cameron seems to have few passionate causes and policy will change with public opinion, Clegg hasn’t kicked up enough stink to have any clout and Osbourne wouldn’t be out of place as the baddie in your local theatres Christmas pantomime. The whole ‘we are all in the together’ mantra sticks in your throat when the only policies pushed through have been 50% tax and the like.

So who am I going to vote for? Bloody UKIP or the Greens. The reason? The only parties where I live who are anti HS2. It matters not, as my local Tory MP has a 12K majority / 53 % vote share but the choice of those 2 makes me feel like a fecking student again. The only other option is Monster raving looney candidate (yes, really)

the best post this week