Gambling experiment

[spig100963]

Whilst in the services I was taught an accurate way to judge a distance is a group average. Basically ever one has a guess at the distance, the distances are then added together, then divided by the amount of people in group. This system is very accurate, the more people the more accurate.
I also saw on TV the other night this same procedure being used for guessing the amount of coins in a jar. Also very accurately.
What I am wondering would this work for a football result. What I need is your help and knowledge, the more who join in the better. So the result is not clouded by our love of the Albion will avoid picking our game. So can you please pm (is best pm'd so that nobody is influenced by seeing other peoples guesses) what you think the result will be between Leicester and Leeds . I will add up the amount of goals and divide it by the number of people and post my findings. Thanks in advance.

 

[seagullondon]

the people on this site know very little about football looking at some the of the stuff i have to read on here! You would only end up losing money

 

[spig100963]

the people on this site know very little about football looking at some the of the stuff i have to read on here! You would only end up losing money

We can only give it a try. Suck and see.

 

[Rugrat]

Good luck ... when some joker sends you a 10-0 prediction your experiment goes slightly tits up.

 

[LowKarate]

I was thinking of trying the same thing a few weeks ago, but amnesia got in the way of my ambition.

I think it would be fair if you shared the result of all opinions and the bet that you place with everyone else, so that they can decide whether or not they want to do the same.

I will PM you though so you can see how it goes.

 

[Mtoto]

Whilst in the services I was taught an accurate way to judge a distance is a group average. Basically ever one has a guess at the distance, the distances are then added together, then divided by the amount of people in group. This system is very accurate, the more people the more accurate.
I also saw on TV the other night this same procedure being used for guessing the amount of coins in a jar. Also very accurately.
What I am wondering would this work for a football result. What I need is your help and knowledge, the more who join in the better. So the result is not clouded by our love of the Albion will avoid picking our game. So can you please pm (is best pm'd so that nobody is influenced by seeing other peoples guesses) what you think the result will be between Leicester and Leeds . I will add up the amount of goals and divide it by the number of people and post my findings. Thanks in advance.

It already happens. It's called the Betfair market - thousands of opinions being distilled into prices at a margin of no more than 1pc. Same thing on every exchange market, the more liquidity there is, the more accurate the prices are. It's one reason why there's now scarcely a single racing tipster in the Racing Post's annual tipping league who can beat a level-stakes bet on the favourite. The right horses start favourite for the great majority of races, because the prices come from thousands of people rather than just a handful of bookies' odds-compilers.

 

[brunswick]

dont bet on exact results.....bet on teams to win.

leeds will lose due to goalie issues.

 

[spig100963]

It already happens. It's called the Betfair market - thousands of opinions being distilled into prices at a margin of no more than 1pc. Same thing on every exchange market, the more liquidity there is, the more accurate the prices are. It's one reason why there's now scarcely a single racing tipster in the Racing Post's annual tipping league who can beat a level-stakes bet on the favourite. The right horses start favourite for the great majority of races, because the prices come from thousands of people rather than just a handful of bookies' odds-compilers.

So are you saying that group averages work then?

 

[Sir Nigel of Eagleshire]

So are you saying that group averages work then?

Years ago I was a stockjobber for the biggest london firm, believe it or not this was the method we used to predict what the market was going to do that day, 72 dealers all made an informed prediction. It turned out pretty accurate but when it was wrong it was hugely wrong.

 

[DumLum]

dont bet on exact results.....bet on teams to win.

leeds will lose due to goalie issues.

I agree about only betting on results(Teams to win.)

However, Leeds have signed England Under-21 keeper Alex McCarthy on a month's loan from Reading.

Leicester will lose due to Manager issues.

 

[spig100963]

It already happens. It's called the Betfair market - thousands of opinions being distilled into prices at a margin of no more than 1pc. Same thing on every exchange market, the more liquidity there is, the more accurate the prices are. It's one reason why there's now scarcely a single racing tipster in the Racing Post's annual tipping league who can beat a level-stakes bet on the favourite. The right horses start favourite for the great majority of races, because the prices come from thousands of people rather than just a handful of bookies' odds-compilers.
If this is the case on X Factor, and other such drivel, the favourite in the betting should always win.