Europe again. Unaccountable and undemocratic. This sums it up.

[Chicken Run]

Okay. Next time I fly to the UK I'll raise your point under the HUGE sign which says EU Passports.

Face in Palm…

 

[jgmcdee]

Your right I have no idea of the impact of exiting the EU, but I'm fed up with this scaremongering we have to put up with. £33 million a day is still a lot of money to be sending out. What do we actually get for our £33 million pounds a day? What actually are we paying for apart from the free movement of people.

According to the post you quoted if every family is £3000 a year better off due to EU membership then what we actually get for our £33 million points a day is around £140 million.

(I haven't looked at the post you quoted or bothered with the numbers, but it's a strange argument to take the cost from Guinness Boy's quote without the benefit).

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Thanks for the link. I was looking at this part
Millions of jobs could be lost as global manufacturers move to lower-cost EU countries. Britain's large foreign-owned car industry would shift into the EU and sectors linked to EU membership such as aerospace would also suffer. Airbus production could move to France and Germany, pro-EU commentators claim.

If production is cheaper in lower cost EU countries why haven't manufacturers already moved production from the UK. What's the difference for them if we left the EU?
Who should I listen too, our politicians or the boss of JCB
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-lift-burden-of-bureaucracy-on-uk-businesses

Also interesting given that JCBs are only 30% British "manufactured" and rely heavily on Italian made parts apparently.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

According to the post you quoted if every family is £3000 a year better off due to EU membership then what we actually get for our £33 million points a day is around £140 million.

(I haven't looked at the post you quoted or bothered with the numbers, but it's a strange argument to take the cost from Guinness Boy's quote without the benefit).

Don't just look at the financial side though. There's all manner of things you benefit from ranging from much needed research into epileptic children to quashing mobile phone roaming ripoff. In my humble opinion life is just easier.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Thanks for the link. I was looking at this part
Millions of jobs could be lost as global manufacturers move to lower-cost EU countries. Britain's large foreign-owned car industry would shift into the EU and sectors linked to EU membership such as aerospace would also suffer. Airbus production could move to France and Germany, pro-EU commentators claim.

If production is cheaper in lower cost EU countries why haven't manufacturers already moved production from the UK. What's the difference for them if we left the EU?
Who should I listen too, our politicians or the boss of JCB
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-lift-burden-of-bureaucracy-on-uk-businesses

If you're trusting business leaders then I'd trust the whole CBI rather than one bloke.

I'm baffled by Mr JCB's comments about less business red-tape being outside of the EU. Most people who trade between the UK and the EU will tell you it's a pretty seamless affair due to the EU freedoms. They will also tell you how much more difficult it is to trade with non-EU nations. Hans Kray Fan Club mentions the myriad issues he has with dealing with Switzerland for example.

I once went on a software testing course where I was told this story. I don't know if true but it's true I was told it. A software company spent a long time creating a new software system for JCB and it had been tested to the strongest standards extant at the time (and therefore overrun). They then presented it to Mr JCB who said it was terrible and he would not be installing it even though it was to spec. They puzzled and then eventually hit on an idea. They rebranded the colours to be black font on yellow background like the JCB brand. No other changes. They represented it and he pronounced it brilliant.

From this you will see I am in the software business. There were no red tape issues at all dealing with clients in Poland and Ireland, some issues with Romania, particularly regarding payments, while dealing with Taiwan and India became almost impossible due to the bureaucracy inherited from the Chinese imperial family and the Raj respectively.

 

[Buzzer]

If you're trusting business leaders then I'd trust the whole CBI rather than one bloke..

Really? CBI was wholeheartedly in favour of us joining the Euro back in 98/99. the CBI chief Lord Marshall was head of the Britain in Europe campaign and made all sorts of wonderful boasts about Euro membership: "Prices and mortgage costs will fall, the economy will become stronger and more stable." They also predicted that otherwise Britain would become an economic backwater and retaining the pound would be disastrous for us.

And as Daniel Hannan has pointed out, the CBI does not represent British business, it represents a very particular type of business and that the CBI has called it wrong on every major decision this century.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/d...top-referring-to-the-cbi-as-british-business/

It's well worth reading that article and especially the 2013 polling which found:

• By 46% – 37% British businesses say that the costs of complying with the Single Market outweigh the benefits of being in the EU.
• British business leaders want to see nine key areas of regulatory competence currently under the remit of Brussels returned to the UK Government.
• By 66% – 26% British business leaders support holding a referendum on the EU.
• By 56% – 23% British business leaders believe that ‘meaningful change’ of our EU relationship requires treaty change and would like to see Britain’s relationship with Brussels changed to focus on trade.
• Achieving ‘meaningful change’ results in an average 16% swing towards voting to remain in the EU.
• By 58% – 21% British business leaders want to see the Government focus on the Newly Industrialising Countries (e.g. Brazil, China, India) over the EU for future trading links.
• Large British businesses say by 35% – 23%, and by 30% – 22% among medium-sized businesses, that they will be prioritising increasing trade with countries outside, rather than inside, the EU.
• By 49% – 44% CBI members believe that the disadvantages of the Single Market now outweigh the benefits, and by 55% – 31% say ‘meaningful change’ requires treaty change and a return to a trading relationship.

 

[Simster]

With regards to dealing with the EU, if you want to sell to the EU then you have to conform to their standards.

All the while we are in the EU, at least we have a say on what those standards actually are.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Really? CBI was wholeheartedly in favour of us joining the Euro back in 98/99. the CBI chief Lord Marshall was head of the Britain in Europe campaign and made all sorts of wonderful boasts about Euro membership: "Prices and mortgage costs will fall, the economy will become stronger and more stable." They also predicted that otherwise Britain would become an economic backwater and retaining the pound would be disastrous for us.

And as Daniel Hannan has pointed out, the CBI does not represent British business, it represents a very particular type of business and that the CBI has called it wrong on every major decision this century.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/d...top-referring-to-the-cbi-as-british-business/

It's well worth reading that article and especially the 2013 polling which found:

• By 46% – 37% British businesses say that the costs of complying with the Single Market outweigh the benefits of being in the EU.
• British business leaders want to see nine key areas of regulatory competence currently under the remit of Brussels returned to the UK Government.
• By 66% – 26% British business leaders support holding a referendum on the EU.
• By 56% – 23% British business leaders believe that ‘meaningful change’ of our EU relationship requires treaty change and would like to see Britain’s relationship with Brussels changed to focus on trade.
• Achieving ‘meaningful change’ results in an average 16% swing towards voting to remain in the EU.
• By 58% – 21% British business leaders want to see the Government focus on the Newly Industrialising Countries (e.g. Brazil, China, India) over the EU for future trading links.
• Large British businesses say by 35% – 23%, and by 30% – 22% among medium-sized businesses, that they will be prioritising increasing trade with countries outside, rather than inside, the EU.
• By 49% – 44% CBI members believe that the disadvantages of the Single Market now outweigh the benefits, and by 55% – 31% say ‘meaningful change’ requires treaty change and a return to a trading relationship.

You've missed the point. I'll put the emphasis that you should have read in to my post:

IF you are trusting business leaders THEN I'd trust the whole CBI RATHER than one bloke.

Are you saying they're wrong that every family is £3000 better off thanks to EU membership?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

You've missed the point. I'll put the emphasis that you should have read in to my post:

IF you are trusting business leaders THEN I'd trust the whole CBI RATHER than one bloke.

Are you saying they're wrong that every family is £3000 better off thanks to EU membership?

Why can't they give us £3000 in our hands then I might feel better off.

 

[Buzzer]

You've missed the point. I'll put the emphasis that you should have read in to my post:

IF you are trusting business leaders THEN I'd trust the whole CBI RATHER than one bloke.

Are you saying they're wrong that every family is £3000 better off thanks to EU membership?

I'm not missing the point at all. In every major decision and prediction this century the CBI have been wrong. Their track record in this respect is worse than Mustafa's on here. Given that they were so spectacularly wrong in evey way regarding the Euro why should I now put more faith in them than say any other source? And if I can emphasise the point, the CBI is not 'business as a whole' and even within the CBI there is clear division as to whether they believe the message coming from the CBI official publications.

Regards this £3000, no I don't believe it and I'd like to see the details, also what do they mean by 'benefit'? What do they mean by 'family'? Is this gross, is this net, is this purely financial or are they attributing monetary values to non-financial things? Given the CBI's complete support for EU membership it's highly probable that they have been less than completely objective in what they choose to look at too. Over the lifetime of our membership, the real beneficiaries of UK money have been the likes of Ireland, Portugal, Spain.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

You've missed the point. I'll put the emphasis that you should have read in to my post:

IF you are trusting business leaders THEN I'd trust the whole CBI RATHER than one bloke.

Are you saying they're wrong that every family is £3000 better off thanks to EU membership?

Given the CBI wants greater integration with the EU ( such as the Euro that Buzzer posted about ) then it's in their interest to suggest we're all richer for being in the EU. Nobody can really prove or disprove their claim but it can hardly be counted as an unbiased or independent claim.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Given the CBI wants greater integration with the EU ( such as the Euro that Buzzer posted about ) then it's in their interest to suggest we're all richer for being in the EU. Nobody can really prove or disprove their claim but it can hardly be counted as an unbiased or independent claim.

But neither can anyone's. EVERYONE has an agenda when it comes to Europe including every major contributor to this thread, myself included.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I'm not missing the point at all. In every major decision and prediction this century the CBI have been wrong. Their track record in this respect is worse than Mustafa's on here. Given that they were so spectacularly wrong in evey way regarding the Euro why should I now put more faith in them than say any other source? And if I can emphasise the point, the CBI is not 'business as a whole' and even within the CBI there is clear division as to whether they believe the message coming from the CBI official publications.

Regards this £3000, no I don't believe it and I'd like to see the details, also what do they mean by 'benefit'? What do they mean by 'family'? Is this gross, is this net, is this purely financial or are they attributing monetary values to non-financial things? Given the CBI's complete support for EU membership it's highly probable that they have been less than completely objective in what they choose to look at too. Over the lifetime of our membership, the real beneficiaries of UK money have been the likes of Ireland, Portugal, Spain.

EDIT wrong link, back shortly.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I'm not missing the point at all. In every major decision and prediction this century the CBI have been wrong. Their track record in this respect is worse than Mustafa's on here. Given that they were so spectacularly wrong in evey way regarding the Euro why should I now put more faith in them than say any other source? And if I can emphasise the point, the CBI is not 'business as a whole' and even within the CBI there is clear division as to whether they believe the message coming from the CBI official publications.

Regards this £3000, no I don't believe it and I'd like to see the details, also what do they mean by 'benefit'? What do they mean by 'family'? Is this gross, is this net, is this purely financial or are they attributing monetary values to non-financial things? Given the CBI's complete support for EU membership it's highly probable that they have been less than completely objective in what they choose to look at too. Over the lifetime of our membership, the real beneficiaries of UK money have been the likes of Ireland, Portugal, Spain.

Right, excuse fat fingers on earlier post. What they mean is this:

"3. The benefits of EU membership to British
business have significantly outweighed
the costs
Like any international arrangement involving cooperation,
UK membership of the EU has always
had advantages and disadvantages. But for the UK
the benefits have been extensive. They significantly
outweigh the costs of membership and have
increased the ability of British business to pursue
their global ambitions. 71% of CBI member businesses
reported that the UK’s membership of the EU has had
a positive overall impact on their business.
It is not unreasonable to infer from a literature review
that the net benefit arising from EU membership
is somewhere in the region of 4–5% of UK GDP or
between £62bn and £78bn per year – roughly the
economies of the North East and Northern Ireland
taken together. This suggests that households benefit
from EU membership to the tune of nearly £3,000 a
year – with every individual in the UK around £1,225
better off."

http://www.cbi.org.uk/media/2451423/our_global_future.pdf

 

[Buzzer]

"It is not unreasonable to infer from a literature review that the net benefit arising from EU membership is somewhere in the region of 4–5% of UK GDP or between £62bn and £78bn per year....This suggests that households benefit from EU membership to the tune of nearly £3,000 a year – with every individual in the UK around £1,225 better off."

I have skim read the entire document and there is no in-depth analysis of this 4-5% of GDP. Instead we have someone inferring from literature review rather than any solid empirical work. Secondly the figure is clearly based on GDP. Now I'm an accountant but I guess most people understand that the 'G' in GDP stands for gross. If I buy something for £10 and sell it for £10 my GDP for the sale is £10. The net benefit to me is zero. It's extremely disingenuous. It's like saying that a company employee benefits to the tune of whatever the turnover is divided by the number of employees. A stupid assertion.

I call bullshit on that £3000 figure. Total bullshit.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I have skim read the entire document and there is no in-depth analysis of this 4-5% of GDP. Instead we have someone inferring from literature review rather than any solid empirical work. Secondly the figure is clearly based on GDP. Now I'm an accountant but I guess most people understand that the 'G' in GDP stands for gross. If I buy something for £10 and sell it for £10 my GDP for the sale is £10. The net benefit to me is zero. The CBI have not done any analysis into net benefit with this figure and it's extremely disingenuous to attribute it turnover as a benefit to people. It's like saying that a company employee benefits to the tune of whatever the turnover is divided by the number of employees. A stupid assertion.

I call bullshit on that £3000 figure. Total bullshit.

By skim read I assume you mean CTRL and F for key phrases as it's rather weighty. Nevertheless I would share the same concern about how the figures stack up. Inferring is not good enough.

However, as you well know, one measure of GDP that is perfectly acceptable is what everyone earned. Or rather adding up total compensation to employees, gross profits for incorporated and non incorporated firms, and taxes less any subsidies from the government. So if GDP was to be lower due to us leaving the EU then we, the people would be poorer by this measure.

The debate is around if it would and I've said a few times that not only do I not know but neither do you and neither does Farage. It's guess work.

To pick up though the CBI quotes re the Euro were from the late nineties, By the time Blair was considering it they were neutral. Also worth considering that the 10th biggest contributor to the EU is Norway who isn't even a member.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I have skim read the entire document and there is no in-depth analysis of this 4-5% of GDP. Instead we have someone inferring from literature review rather than any solid empirical work. Secondly the figure is clearly based on GDP. Now I'm an accountant but I guess most people understand that the 'G' in GDP stands for gross. If I buy something for £10 and sell it for £10 my GDP for the sale is £10. The net benefit to me is zero. It's extremely disingenuous. It's like saying that a company employee benefits to the tune of whatever the turnover is divided by the number of employees. A stupid assertion.

I call bullshit on that £3000 figure. Total bullshit.

It will be figures like this £3000 that will be used to scaremonger us in to voting for remaining in the EU, conveniently forgetting the millions we pay in each day, and the way we have lost control of our borders because of the EU rules on free movement. To the average man on the street it feels like we pay a lot more in than what we actually get out.

 

[Guinness Boy]

It will be figures like this £3000 that will be used to scaremonger us in to voting for remaining in the EU, conveniently forgetting the millions we pay in each day, and the way we have lost control of our borders because of the EU rules on free movement. To the average man on the street it feels like we pay a lot more in than what we actually get out.

Have you set up a direct debit or do you pay in cash?

 

[Buzzer]

Apparently, this 'literature review' was comprised of reviewing just 5 studies. This constitutes the entire body of work out there.

The report says:
"Since these studies are not mutually exclusive…it is not unreasonable to infer that the net benefit arising from EU membership is somewhat higher than 2–3 per cent, perhaps in the region of 4–5 per cent as a conservative estimate."

http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/06_chapter03.html

So basically, they've said that they have read the benefit as between 2 and 3 percent and they've decided to double it, and add the wonderful phrase 'as a conservative estimate', for no good scientific reason whatsoever. I'm sorry but I can't take this £3000 figure seriously at all.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Also worth considering that the 10th biggest contributor to the EU is Norway who isn't even a member.

No they're not - they are about 21st sandwiched between Lithuania and Luxembourg.