[Politics] Brexit

[Mental Lental]

Anyone seen the latest YouGov polling? They're quite an eye-opener

YouGov - 30th May
LDem : 24%
BRX : 22%
Con : 19%
Lab : 19%
Grn : 8%

Flavible FPTP Projection
Lab : 184 (-78)
LDem : 175 (+163)
BRX : 134 (+134)
Con : 83 (-235)
SNP : 49 (+14)
PC : 4 (=)
Grn : 2 (+1)
Ind : 1 (+1)

My feeling is that the Brexit Party vote would go down a bit with a GE. It's a one-issue party and once they start introducing other policies, they could lose their allure. For example, I'm not sure that the electorate is as keen to see the abolition of the NHS as Farage is.

But that poll represents horrible news for Labour and Tories. And I wonder where the Greens extra seat is

Pure fantasy land stuff but the idea of a pro-European Lab/LibDem coalition cancelling Brexit while a massive Brexit party sits in opposition and froths at the gills makes me all warm and fuzzy inside.

 

[Gwylan]

What that poll does give is some real ammunition to the Tories against a no deal Brexit. The threat to bring down a government should terrify a Tory PM - it would mean electoral oblivion.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

What that poll does give is some real ammunition to the Tories against a no deal Brexit. The threat to bring down a government should terrify a Tory PM - it would mean electoral oblivion.

Good point. Although I guess if they come out in anti No Deal colours their constituency associations will drop them before we get to an election? No place to run/no place to hide.

 

[Gwylan]

Good point. Although I guess if they come out in anti No Deal colours their constituency associations will drop them before we get to an election? No place to run/no place to hide.

As I said earlier in thread, some MPs won't care - Ken Clarke has been robust in his EU views for years and still gets voted in.

And some may well take the chance. Philip Hammond knows his cabinet career is over but is sitting on a majority of 18,000, he may think that's foolproof or may want to go back to business.

The other possibility is that LibDems could do a deal with Remain-voting Tories and say "if you vote against the government, we won't oppose you at a GE" The possibilities are almost endless.

The other thing to remember is that takes just six (six!) Tories to bring down a PM. Clarke and Grieve could be the first two, not many more to find.

 

[WATFORD zero]

As I said earlier in thread, some MPs won't care - Ken Clarke has been robust in his EU views for years and still gets voted in.

And some may well take the chance. Philip Hammond knows his cabinet career is over but is sitting on a majority of 18,000, he may think that's foolproof or may want to go back to business.

The other possibility is that LibDems could do a deal with Remain-voting Tories and say "if you vote against the government, we won't oppose you at a GE" The possibilities are almost endless.

The possibilities are the same as 3 years ago

No deal with NI Border
Deal with Customs Union
Withdraw Article 50

The methods by which we get to one of those possibilities are almost endless

 

[Mellotron]

The average soy boy is a feminist, nonathletic, has never been in a fight, will probably marry the first girl that has sex with him, and likely reduces all his arguments to labeling the opposition as "Nazis".

The best thing about this line is that there is a 1,000,000% chance this was written by a virgin. 1,000,000%.

 

[Notters]

The possibilities are the same as 3 years ago

No deal with NI Border
Deal with Customs Union
Withdraw Article 50

The methods by which we get to one of those possibilities are almost endless

No deal with NI Border - with support from what, 30% of the population, but apparently the will of the people
Deal with Customs Union
Withdraw Article 50 - with support from at least 48% of the population (probably more like 55% now), who are apparently traitors

 

[Bodian]

On Question time last night the Brexit representative was Alexandra Phillip (MEP) who is often wheeled out for these sorts of things. She was the UKIP media adviser and then flipped to the Tories and ended up (for now at least) with Brexit Party. At one point, in the face of 'typical project fear' propaganda about the consequences of a no deal Brexit, she responded with he 'fact' that only 4% of British businesses trade directly with the EU. It sounded quite reassuring.

However even allowing for this to be the case this sort of thing should not go unchallenged.

a) this figure could still represent 200-300k businesses (and maybe more)

b) many of these businesses are rather large

But even if only 1 employee per business lost his/her job (which is a very conservative estimate) it still adds hundreds of thousands to the dole queues and then there's the supply chains and the local business knock-on effects.


So 'only' 4% is actually hugely significant (as Harold Wilson once said 'to the unemployed man, the unemployment rate is 100%).


I think her announcement was met with a mumble of approval by some of the good folk of Epsom. Yet how can this be anything other than bad news?







.

"Directly" is also key here. Maybe only 4% of businesses trade directly with the EU, but how many businesses trade/depend on those businesses. That is, the direct trading business suffering, will have a knock on effect as well.

 

[WATFORD zero]

No deal with NI Border - with support from what, 30% of the population, but apparently the will of the people
Deal with Customs Union
Withdraw Article 50 - with support from at least 48% of the population (probably more like 55% now), who are apparently traitors

The funny thing is that if the actual implementable options were on the original referendum, instead of ridiculous unimplementable concepts, I suspect this whole clusterf*** would never have actually happened, the country would be 10s of Billions better off and the economy would be far better

And before our regular Brexiteers start whining on about 'splitting the Brexit vote again'

It's explained very simply and succinctly (by a leave supporter) how it would work here

https://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?368879-1st-2nd-choice-Referendum-Poll

Which suggests that on that nasty undeomcratic loon supporting NSC at least, the numbers were just over 70% Remain, just under 30% No deal

 

[Baldseagull]

On Question time last night the Brexit representative was Alexandra Phillip (MEP) who is often wheeled out for these sorts of things. She was the UKIP media adviser and then flipped to the Tories and ended up (for now at least) with Brexit Party. At one point, in the face of 'typical project fear' propaganda about the consequences of a no deal Brexit, she responded with he 'fact' that only 4% of British businesses trade directly with the EU. It sounded quite reassuring.

However even allowing for this to be the case this sort of thing should not go unchallenged.

a) this figure could still represent 200-300k businesses (and maybe more)

b) many of these businesses are rather large

But even if only 1 employee per business lost his/her job (which is a very conservative estimate) it still adds hundreds of thousands to the dole queues and then there's the supply chains and the local business knock-on effects.


So 'only' 4% is actually hugely significant (as Harold Wilson once said 'to the unemployed man, the unemployment rate is 100%).


I think her announcement was met with a mumble of approval by some of the good folk of Epsom. Yet how can this be anything other than bad news?







.

The argument is that the other 96% will be freed of all the red tape and regulations that they have to comply with because we are in the EU. For instance, if you keep Bees and sell some honey locally, what is required to be on the label is governed by EU rules on food labelling, but there is zero chance we will use different rules, and even if we did, there will still be rules.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Anyone seen the latest YouGov polling? They're quite an eye-opener

YouGov - 30th May
LDem : 24%
BRX : 22%
Con : 19%
Lab : 19%
Grn : 8%

Flavible FPTP Projection
Lab : 184 (-78)
LDem : 175 (+163)
BRX : 134 (+134)
Con : 83 (-235)
SNP : 49 (+14)
PC : 4 (=)
Grn : 2 (+1)
Ind : 1 (+1)

My feeling is that the Brexit Party vote would go down a bit with a GE. It's a one-issue party and once they start introducing other policies, they could lose their allure. For example, I'm not sure that the electorate is as keen to see the abolition of the NHS as Farage is.

But that poll represents horrible news for Labour and Tories. And I wonder where the Greens extra seat is

It appears that the democratic majority currently consists of undemocratic loons. Is this technically possible? Hopefully NSC undemocratic loon specialist can give us some more of his advice soon.

 

[CHAPPERS]

This is good, on WTO.

[tweet]1134175141208834048[/tweet]


He's still a Tory but he's the best one as far as I can tell.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Most sensible, honest candidate by far.

Or, as another regular poster on here would put it 'undemocratic loon'

 

[A1X]

This is good, on WTO.

[tweet]1134175141208834048[/tweet]


He's still a Tory but he's the best one as far as I can tell.

He's sane. That that marks him out as being a premium candidate in any way is a damning indictment of the state of our Government.

 

[Mellotron]

Rory Stewart is the best candidate by a mile. No chance on Earth he gets it.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

This is good, on WTO.

[tweet]1134175141208834048[/tweet]


He's still a Tory but he's the best one as far as I can tell.

He was excellent on QT last night too.

By far the best candidate IMO

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Might be too early for him - Foreign Sec. maybe - although he said he won't serve under Boris.

 

[sussex_guy2k2]

The argument is that the other 96% will be freed of all the red tape and regulations that they have to comply with because we are in the EU. For instance, if you keep Bees and sell some honey locally, what is required to be on the label is governed by EU rules on food labelling, but there is zero chance we will use different rules, and even if we did, there will still be rules.

Anyone with any sense would know that that's simply not true though. We'd still have some rules in place to govern such things within our own country (in fact, all MPs have pretty much stated we'd take EU law as our law and then adapt from there) and if anything we'd have copious amounts of wider legislation to deal with which would be country specific, making the admin and bureaucracy even more difficult compared to the one-size fits all approach we currently have to most produce.

 

[pb21]

Might be too early for him - Foreign Sec. maybe - although he said he won't serve under Boris.

Would he serve under any PM who pursues 'no deal'? Presumably not.

 

[symyjym]

Rory Stewart is the best candidate by a mile. No chance on Earth he gets it.

Brexit is a time parasite, we have taken our eye off the ball for 3 years and have not been planning for the future during this period. We don't know who we want to be or where to go as a nation. Rory has identified this problem and can think outside the box. He was was tasked with administrating Basra in Iraq and had to deal with the Sunni, Shia and other militant groups so he is a stronger person than he looks and is not intimidated by personalities or cross party talks.

This video demonstrates that he understands what he is talking about rather than a Boris scribbling down some sound bytes for public entertainment:

https://youtu.be/zMXXJqvMdk4

I'm not saying watch it but you can get an idea of who he is on skipping through.