[Politics] Brexit

[BigGully]

I don't have an argument, I have a fact for you........Inflation is going to rise. Fact.

You seem to be fixated with inflation, it seems to have suddenly become your preferred indicator of the perils of Brexit, inflation is very much like currencies, there have undetermined tipping points when they become advantageous or not, its nearly impossible to be exact about what level is preferable.

Was sterling overpriced and just needing a readjustmenet or has low inflation just been an indicator of weak demand and so it goes on, its clear that we cannot hope for a long term collapse of our currency nor do we need hyper inflation but it seems churlish that you cite a weaker sterling and perhaps future inflationary pressures as some obvious signs of the consequence of Brexit, when current actual data shows an extremely robust UK economy.

I got told 25 years ago that low inflation is like having low cholestoral whilst dieing of malnutrition, I think I know what he meant, its a simple matter of balance, we are no way near where these indicators pose any significant threat to our future economic success associated to Brexit, it just doesnt.

 

[cunning fergus]

Forty odd years old and this still resonates today

Excellent stuff........Peter Shore was a genuine old school British socialist politician who foretold all of the challenges that we face with the EU now.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/sep/24/peter-shore-labour-prophet

To quote from the above:

It was Shore's unshakeable belief that democracy and socialism were inextricably linked and it was his awareness of the threat that unelected transnational bodies, representing the interests of finance, capital and big business, posed to democracy, which lay behind his unrelenting hostility towards the EEC and later the EU. "I did not," he said in 1973, "come into socialist politics in order to connive in the dismantling of the power of the British people."

It's why for some of us of a certain vintage those Labour supporters with their unremitting support for the objectives of the EU are Tories, no more no less.

 

[Two Professors]

You may jest but check out the rising cost of Sussex pints on the Argus site

Think the Arsgas is on strike.Was it 15%?

 

[wellquickwoody]

You seem to be fixated with inflation, it seems to have suddenly become your preferred indicator of the perils of Brexit, inflation is very much like currencies, there have undetermined tipping points when they become advantageous or not, its nearly impossible to be exact about what level is preferable.

Was sterling overpriced and just needing a readjustmenet or has low inflation just been an indicator of weak demand and so it goes on, its clear that we cannot hope for a long term collapse of our currency nor do we need hyper inflation but it seems churlish that you cite a weaker sterling and perhaps future inflationary pressures as some obvious signs of the consequence of Brexit, when current actual data shows an extremely robust UK economy.

I got told 25 years ago that low inflation is like having low cholestoral whilst dieing of malnutrition, I think I know what he meant, its a simple matter of balance, we are no way near where these indicators pose any significant threat to our future economic success associated to Brexit, it just doesnt.

You make a very sensible point, which I can at least partially agree with. But try telling young working families that higher inflation is actually OK when they are also being hit with increases in their mortgage repayments. Please do not patronise with 'it hasn't or may not happen'. It will happen , it is all about how severe these rises will be.

 

[cunning fergus]

You make a very sensible point, which I can at least partially agree with. But try telling young working families that higher inflation is actually OK when they are also being hit with increases in their mortgage repayments. Please do not patronise with 'it hasn't or may not happen'. It will happen , it is all about how severe these rises will be.

You are taking it for granted that these young working families are doing well with the status quo?

In many areas of the country these young working families are dealing with the consequences of many years of political policies that has lead to increasing pressures on social/private housing, schools, hospitals and other organs of the state.

This at a time for many workers, especially those towards the bottom of the skills league, are competing with and endless supply of competition in the job markets which has lead to diminishing workers rights and low pay.

Predictions of doom don't resonate with people when they are already enduring misery, it's why in working class labour constituencies the leave vote was so high.

 

[BigGully]

You make a very sensible point, which I can at least partially agree with. But try telling young working families that higher inflation is actually OK when they are also being hit with increases in their mortgage repayments. Please do not patronise with 'it hasn't or may not happen'. It will happen , it is all about how severe these rises will be.

Ultimately you will need to see if it happens and by how much, irrespective of Brexit we have been promised interest rate rises for a few years now but as yet nothing, would inflation of say a rate of 5% feeding though in a couple of years be driven exclusively by a collapse of sterling or would it be because of greater demand within our economy, might either be offset by other positive economic outcomes anyway, we just do not know.

But again current data suggests that actually our economy is performing comparably well, if sterlings your indicator of choice then the Deutsche Bank is saying that it is one of the worlds most undervalued currencies made on the back of the UK being the fastest growing G10 economy for 2016, if so then you would expect it to stregthen and again this will offset your inflationary worries and yet another set of predictions fall by the wayside.

 

[DataPoint]

And you're going to be on social media in 25 years time saying the UK has always had exchange rate collapses, high unemployment, businesses derserting the uk etc etc. Can you also turn the light off when you leave.

We'll be free - the sovereign State of the United Kingdom - again - not just another region of the U.S.E.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Lincoln Imp (is) going to be on social media for the next 25 years blaming Brexit for every price rise, every person who loses their job, every interest rate change, every fuel price rise, every time the FTSE drops etc. etc. etc........!

I'd be grateful for any past evidence you can conjure up that shows I am likely to do that. If you can't then I 'll just have to put you down as one more shouty Brexier.

 

[DataPoint]

I don't have an argument, I have a fact for you........Inflation is going to rise. Fact.

If Inflation is around zero now - off course it can only rise.

I could blame 'The Common Market' project for contributing to an inflation figure of around 400% between 1969 - 1983.

 

[Baldseagull]

His was just an anecdotle story of his workplace, driven by his own position of a Remainer who had previously cited immediate economic disaster if we had the temerity to vote leave, it never happened and current data isnt backing up his or yours view, so you just push the negative prediction upstream, 18 months, after triggering article 50, a year, 10 years and so on.

It doesnt reflect reality or the wider picture, inflation is currently standing at 1.6% and not 15% thats the reality and serving up just another dollop of future assumptions is worthless, especially from you Remainers as you scurry around trying to justify your previous inaccurate predictions by now looking for anything that might offer a titbit of negativity, you are just waiting for that day, that one day when you can say 'I told you so', a reprieve perhaps but at present us Brexiteer can say 'I told you so' each day since June 23rd 2016 and it feels good.

I thought it was an anecdotal story driven by the conversation on here, in response to the flat out denial from some, that the fall in value of the pound is having a negative effect on some businesses.
I would have used the word stupidity, rather than temerity to describe the way you voted, temerity implies you accept the massive risk but do it anyway, you seem unable to accept that there is any risk and we are going to sail through this.
I really do not want to say I told you so, and if we have a soft Brexit, maybe I never will.

 

[portslade seagull]

It is a bit daft to say we have had problems before with different causes, so problems now cannot be due to Brexit.

What problems though. We are the fastest growing economy. Hardly collapsing is it. Why try to create issues when they evidently do not exist at present.

 

[GT49er]

I'd be grateful for any past evidence you can conjure up that shows I am likely to do that. If you can't then I 'll just have to put you down as one more shouty Brexier.

This debate hasn't been going for 25 years yet, so only limited historical data is available to indicate you'll still be going on about Brexit in 25 years time. However, you have to admit that your postings on this thread show no visible signs of easing up yet!

 

[BigGully]

I thought it was an anecdotal story driven by the conversation on here, in response to the flat out denial from some, that the fall in value of the pound is having a negative effect on some businesses.
I would have used the word stupidity, rather than temerity to describe the way you voted, temerity implies you accept the massive risk but do it anyway, you seem unable to accept that there is any risk and we are going to sail through this.
I really do not want to say I told you so, and if we have a soft Brexit, maybe I never will.

No, you see no end of risks I do not, the current data continues to disqualify your predictions, the arrogance that many lend to Remainers are supported by you deeming us who voted for Brexit as stupid, by all means offer opinions and some logic to back up your endless negative forecasts but at the moment you have very little to go on.

 

[Baldseagull]

What problems though. We are the fastest growing economy. Hardly collapsing is it. Why try to create issues when they evidently do not exist at present.

Are you a ****ing goldfish? You mentioned the value of the pound, and that it has been as low as this before. I said, it is a bit daft to say we have had problems before with different causes, so problems now cannot be due to Brexit.
Do you accept that the leave result has led to the sharp decrease in the value of the pound?
Do you accept that this is a problem for some at least, if not all of us?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

If Inflation is around zero now - off course it can only rise.

Er what, it can still go down further.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

You make a very sensible point, which I can at least partially agree with. But try telling young working families that higher inflation is actually OK when they are also being hit with increases in their mortgage repayments. Please do not patronise with 'it hasn't or may not happen'. It will happen , it is all about how severe these rises will be.

It always has though,it's a double edged sword especially for the housing market which has seen inflation out strip every other sector perhaps bar footballers wages i suppose.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

No, you see no end of risks I do not, the current data continues to disqualify your predictions, the arrogance that many lend to Remainers are supported by you deeming us who voted for Brexit as stupid, by all means offer opinions and some logic to back up your endless negative forecasts but at the moment you have very little to go on.

Out of interest what specific data are you referring to? You repeatedly use this line but it's not clear what it is you're referring to.

 

[cunning fergus]

Are you a ****ing goldfish? You mentioned the value of the pound, and that it has been as low as this before. I said, it is a bit daft to say we have had problems before with different causes, so problems now cannot be due to Brexit.
Do you accept that the leave result has led to the sharp decrease in the value of the pound?
Do you accept that this is a problem for some at least, if not all of us?

Whether GBP is up or down, there are upsides and downsides. You are solely fixating on the downsides, which are a natural consequence of significant economic, political and natural events when they occur. There is no doubt Brexit was a significant political event.

If you want to get confirmation that the fall of GBP has created negative consequences for some people, companies and institutions, then you should equally accept that it's fall has also benefitted other people, companies and institutions. There is little doubt that the fall in GBP contributed to a 2.5% expansion in manufacturing output since Brexit, for those connected with this expansion it is a positive.

Looking forward there are other political events that will affect GBP, I suspect when article 50 is triggered we will see another fall.

However, this should be considered against the wither macro political/economic environment as there are elections in France, Holland and Germany this year, QE is currently still in-flight by BOE, US and ECB plus the underlying problems with the euro remain unresolved.

All of these issues will effect the value GBP, and whether it rises or falls some will benefit and some will not.

If you want GBP to rise, pray for a Le Pen electoral victory.

 

[portslade seagull]

Are you a ****ing goldfish? You mentioned the value of the pound, and that it has been as low as this before. I said, it is a bit daft to say we have had problems before with different causes, so problems now cannot be due to Brexit.
Do you accept that the leave result has led to the sharp decrease in the value of the pound?
Do you accept that this is a problem for some at least, if not all of us?

Can always tell when someone is loosing an argument because they then resort to swearing. I'm saying we have had similar circumstances which you have coveniently left out. We will recover because we always have

 

[Baldseagull]

No, you see no end of risks I do not, the current data continues to disqualify your predictions, the arrogance that many lend to Remainers are supported by you deeming us who voted for Brexit as stupid, by all means offer opinions and some logic to back up your endless negative forecasts but at the moment you have very little to go on.

I have given my opinions and the logic, but it does not seem to be able to penetrate the thick, dense, shield you guys have to deflect any logic that does not fit into the sunny uplands of Brexit.
You say you do not see "no end of risks" as you think I do, but do you see any at all?