[Politics] Brexit

[portslade seagull]

We cannot revisit it, if we do not do a deal that allow Financial services to be sold to EU businesses, that portion of it will go to an EU country. It is not a guess, it is a fact. The Swiss model of bi-lateral agreements which includes free movement of people, does not give it's banks the ability to sell into the EU from Zurich. I can't see us getting it, not without massive contributions to the EU coffers, most likely in excess of what we currently pay.
About half of the Financial services business is sold in to other countries, one third of that is sold into the EU, about £60Bn.

Blah blah blah keep rattling on.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

You know it is not fair posting cheery post vote opinions on here. Please get back to the doom and gloom which has obviously been happening post Brexit vote..... or not.

"By the Spring of 1940 it is estimated that millions of people decided that the war wasn’t going to happen and they began walking the streets without Gas masks. The fear of the impending war began to subside. This however was short lived when suddenly on the 9th April 1940 the war began again."

As the last phoney war entered went past the six month stage I guess that there were plenty of people on the Clapham omnibuses complaining about the doom and gloom merchants.

 

[Baldseagull]

Christ, what is it with you Remainers. Where did I state a STEEP drop? There MAY be a drop due to uncertainty as financial markets hate uncertainty, but these experts (who the remain side seem so keen on quoting) are predicting Sterling will be higher than it is now in a couple of years.

Hope that's not too difficult to comprehend.

You mean higher than it is now, after the STEEP drop it has already suffered? How long till it reaches the levels of April 2015,before the last election, which is when the referendum was not yet a reality and price started creeping down?

 

[Baldseagull]

Blah blah blah keep rattling on.

Sorry, facts are boring sometimes.

 

[portslade seagull]

Christ, what is it with you Remainers. Where did I state a STEEP drop? There MAY be a drop due to uncertainty as financial markets hate uncertainty, but these experts (who the remain side seem so keen on quoting) are predicting Sterling will be higher than it is now in a couple of years.

Hope that's not too difficult to comprehend.

Well it will be because it is positive. Rember Remain = Negative, Negative, Negative

 

[larus]

You mean higher than it is now, after the STEEP drop it has already suffered? How long till it reaches the levels of April 2015,before the last election, which is when the referendum was not yet a reality and price started creeping down?

The pound faces a rollercoaster ride next year as policymakers start the process of leaving the European Union, analysts have warned.

The expected triggering of Article 50 in the first quarter of 2017 is predicted to push down the value of sterling against a basket of major currencies, dragging it to a 32-year low against the dollar.

The start of two years of formal Brexit negotiations with Brussels is expected to push the pound down by more than 5pc against the dollar and euro from current levels of $1.2290 and €1.1764, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Baml), Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

However, the two US banks said the weakness would represent the “last leg down” for sterling, as political risks in Europe weigh on the single currency and the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates more slowly than current projections suggest.
Kamal Sharma, a foreign exchange strategist at Baml, said: “[We] believe that activation [of Article 50] will be the crystallisation of Brexit fears and the final leg lower in the pound.

"Providing the UK economy remains resilient, we see it recovering through the rest of the year as Brexit fatigue sets in, as a potential deal looks more 'soft’ than 'hard’.”

Baml expects sterling to rise to $1.29 by the end of the year, while Morgan Stanley believes sterling will climb to $1.26 against the dollar by the end of next year and $1.45 by the end of 2018.

Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at City Index, expects sterling to “rise from the ashes” in 2017 amid a “year of two halves”.

“While we expect further declines, potentially back to $1.18 in the first half of the year, we expect it to claw back losses in the second half of the year, and it could end 2017 at around $1.30 to $1.35,” she said.

 

[portslade seagull]

Sorry, facts are boring sometimes.

What facts . Ones that happen to support your ongoing negativity so many months after the vote.

 

[portslade seagull]

The pound faces a rollercoaster ride next year as policymakers start the process of leaving the European Union, analysts have warned.

The expected triggering of Article 50 in the first quarter of 2017 is predicted to push down the value of sterling against a basket of major currencies, dragging it to a 32-year low against the dollar.

The start of two years of formal Brexit negotiations with Brussels is expected to push the pound down by more than 5pc against the dollar and euro from current levels of $1.2290 and €1.1764, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Baml), Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

However, the two US banks said the weakness would represent the “last leg down” for sterling, as political risks in Europe weigh on the single currency and the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates more slowly than current projections suggest.
Kamal Sharma, a foreign exchange strategist at Baml, said: “[We] believe that activation [of Article 50] will be the crystallisation of Brexit fears and the final leg lower in the pound.

"Providing the UK economy remains resilient, we see it recovering through the rest of the year as Brexit fatigue sets in, as a potential deal looks more 'soft’ than 'hard’.”

Baml expects sterling to rise to $1.29 by the end of the year, while Morgan Stanley believes sterling will climb to $1.26 against the dollar by the end of next year and $1.45 by the end of 2018.

Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at City Index, expects sterling to “rise from the ashes” in 2017 amid a “year of two halves”.

“While we expect further declines, potentially back to $1.18 in the first half of the year, we expect it to claw back losses in the second half of the year, and it could end 2017 at around $1.30 to $1.35,” she said.

The Negative crew wont like that

 

[Baldseagull]

I suggest you read my post 24068 and then seriously reconsider this naive response.

Yes, the good old future issues once Brexit is triggered. I'm sure you can understand the feelings of those who just don't believe this crap. At what point post Brexit will any bad news not be down to Brexit? 6 months? 12? 24? 60? Really interested, as the Remainers seem to want to link anything which has or may happen at any unforeseen time-frame to us leaving the EU.

I would guess that you will never see it as being down to Brexit, I am sure that people who seem to be able to blame the EU for everything, despite the UK Government having the greatest level of influence, will be find it easy to point the finger at us negative minded remainers, or gutless traitor banks setting up in Dublin or Frankfurt just to make money, or those nasty continentals, spitefully doing what is best for them once we bail out.

 

[larus]

The Negative crew wont like that

All I know is what they are predicting is likely to be wrong. By this I mean it could be worse then the exports are saying or it could be better.

Just look at the record of pollsters, economists, commentators and professionals in relation to Brexit. The reality has been so different from what we were told WOULD HAPPEN as soon as we voted Leave. Not once we left, but as as soon as we voted.

And what has happended - Sweet FA. The only impact has been on the Financial Markets (the same ones influenced, i.e. Bankers, who were warning us of the dire consequences). All other statistics have been better than predicted.

 

[Baldseagull]

The pound faces a rollercoaster ride next year as policymakers start the process of leaving the European Union, analysts have warned.

The expected triggering of Article 50 in the first quarter of 2017 is predicted to push down the value of sterling against a basket of major currencies, dragging it to a 32-year low against the dollar.

The start of two years of formal Brexit negotiations with Brussels is expected to push the pound down by more than 5pc against the dollar and euro from current levels of $1.2290 and €1.1764, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Baml), Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

However, the two US banks said the weakness would represent the “last leg down” for sterling, as political risks in Europe weigh on the single currency and the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates more slowly than current projections suggest.
Kamal Sharma, a foreign exchange strategist at Baml, said: “[We] believe that activation [of Article 50] will be the crystallisation of Brexit fears and the final leg lower in the pound.

"Providing the UK economy remains resilient, we see it recovering through the rest of the year as Brexit fatigue sets in, as a potential deal looks more 'soft’ than 'hard’.”

Baml expects sterling to rise to $1.29 by the end of the year, while Morgan Stanley believes sterling will climb to $1.26 against the dollar by the end of next year and $1.45 by the end of 2018.

Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at City Index, expects sterling to “rise from the ashes” in 2017 amid a “year of two halves”.

“While we expect further declines, potentially back to $1.18 in the first half of the year, we expect it to claw back losses in the second half of the year, and it could end 2017 at around $1.30 to $1.35,” she said.

Please note, the best case scenario is associated with the soft Brexit. I concur

 

[portslade seagull]

All I know is what they are predicting is likely to be wrong. By this I mean it could be worse then the exports are saying or it could be better.

Just look at the record of pollsters, economists, commentators and professionals in relation to Brexit. The reality has been so different from what we were told WOULD HAPPEN as soon as we voted Leave. Not once we left, but as as soon as we voted.

And what has happended - Sweet FA. The only impact has been on the Financial Markets (the same ones influenced, i.e. Bankers, who were warning us of the dire consequences). All other statistics have been better than predicted.

Are these the Same Bankers who caused the crash back in 2008 with their greed and then begged their respective governments to bail them out ?

 

[larus]

I would guess that you will never see it as being down to Brexit, I am sure that people who seem to be able to blame the EU for everything, despite the UK Government having the greatest level of influence, will be find it easy to point the finger at us negative minded remainers, or gutless traitor banks setting up in Dublin or Frankfurt just to make money, or those nasty continentals, spitefully doing what is best for them once we bail out.

I will answer you questions (although I notice that you have failed to answer mine).

I accept that there will be an impact to Brexit as a short-term consequence, but I believe that the opportunities of being a free-trading sovereign state far outweigh the potential impact. However, the initial impact to Sterling is an EMOTIONAL impact based on perceptions of risk. However, as we continue to be successful as a country and the sky does not fall in, I think that the markets attention will get more focused onto the viability of the EURO and the fiscal issues in the US with the expansionary policies of Trump.

 

[larus]

Are these the Same Bankers who caused the crash back in 2008 with their greed and then begged their respective governments to bail them out ?

Yes, but they are experts. I'm not sure in what, but they must be in something.

 

[vegster]

Never accept economic arguments from people who claim that 10.4 plus 6.7 is almost 17 - it's more than 17. Thankfully Remain's economic arguments lost the referendum!

What a mistake !!!, I lost a tenth of 1% !!!!!

At least I never lost the £350M a week the NHS was promised,thankfully for Leave, their economic lies won.

 

[portslade seagull]

Yes, but they are experts. I'm not sure in what, but they must be in something.

Assisting in 1000s losing there houses and livelihoods. Only interested in themselves

 

[Baldseagull]

What facts . Ones that happen to support your ongoing negativity so many months after the vote.

Yes, those were the type of facts I was presenting.

 

[portslade seagull]

Yeah but where are these facts from? An independent or is it more remain bluster

 

[larus]

What a mistake !!!, I lost a tenth of 1% !!!!!

At least I never lost the £350M a week the NHS was promised,thankfully for Leave, their economic lies won.

I noticed that you conveniently ignored my point that the statistic is complete garbage as it has picked a point in time when Sterling was overvalued (1.52). However, do that same analysis from the end of 2008 when Sterling was 1.02 and let me know what you get then.

No one with a brain cell can possibly compare our performance to that of Greece over the last 8-10 years.

I'm happy to have a sensible debate, but if you want to rely upon this type of statistic to 'defend' your position then it proves that you have lost the debate.

 

[Two Professors]

"By the Spring of 1940 it is estimated that millions of people decided that the war wasn’t going to happen and they began walking the streets without Gas masks. The fear of the impending war began to subside. This however was short lived when suddenly on the 9th April 1940 the war began again."

As the last phoney war entered went past the six month stage I guess that there were plenty of people on the Clapham omnibuses complaining about the doom and gloom merchants.

Wonder what 'expert' came up with that figure of millions?