[Politics] Brexit

JC Footy Genius · May 22, 2016

Hamilton said:
OK, so some debate here. The use of the word mass immigration is highly subjective. There has been no policy of mass immigration. Instead, we are part of a Union that allows for the free movement of nationals with the freedom to work and trade. This works both ways. Just as EU nationals are free to come to the UK, so native residents of the UK are free to move throughout the EU. This presents huge advantages to us and allows our young people to work and explore other countries and gives our entrepreneurs access to a wide.

In fact, the business benefits of remaining are huge; full access to the single market of 500m people means British businesses can sell to more people with the same rules as we have here, and they can grow more quickly. I say ‘full access’ because the ‘full’ bit is particularly important. Lots of countries have ‘access’ to trade with the single market, but they have to pay import tariffs and they face regulatory barriers when they do; we don’t have those, and that means that British companies can trade with companies and consumers in Berlin or Brussels in exactly the same way as if they were in Birmingham or Bristol.

Back to immigration. We seemed to be obsessed that it is a one way ticket. It's not. And even when we do look at EU Nationals entering the UK, the evidence shows that they pay their way and are filling vital roles. We do have a surplus of jobs - unbelievably so - and as I have pointed out, these jobs aren't to everyone's liking which is why they remain unfilled. And studies - many studies both independent and issued by government - do show that immigrants are making a net contribution. You might not feel it's net value, for whatever reason - political, social, cultural - but they do make a net contribution.

The argument also goes that we are full up. That we can't house and educate people. Yes, we do have a chronic housing shortage and yes we do need more schools and hospitals. So let's build them. I'd suggest the creation of more schools and investment in teaching would be far more beneficial to the long-term success of the UK than say the construction of HS2.

I'm delighted that you feel this is not a pole debate as well. It means that you see the merits of the EU as well as the shortcomings. The EU is wasteful - the whole Strasbourg issue is a total waste of £100million Euros of taxpayer cash. Reform is needed and members can force that reform if the collective will is there. And the collective will is going to be there. The fact that this vote is happening will have sent a warning out to the EU.

If we leave then we'll have to work with EU countries on the outside rather than the inside. That is not a good prospect. Immigration won't change - we'll still need some immigration to fill a shortfall of skills (nursing is one example I have used before). We may need less immigration due to our GDP falling. A weaker economy will produce less jobs, and it will also have an impact on wages. This isn't scaremongering. As you know, it's just what happens.

We'll also need to redirect funds to certain areas. Yes we'll save our £23million a day net contribution to the EU, but a lot of that will be swallowed up immediately. The NFU has come out on the side of the EU because UK farmers are waking up to the fact that they will lose the £8million a day that they receive from the EU through the common agricultural policy. If we are going to keep providing farmers with that subsidy, then we'll need to find what ever 365 x £8million is (a lot of cash) otherwise we'll see them go bust. As they are being squeezed for prices by our lovely supermarkets, they'll have to go bust or supermarkets will need to a) raise prices at the checkouts or b) import from the EU. Even if they do import from the EU, the government will probably need to impose tariffs which will increase the price of imports. Either way, it's all unnecessary expense.

I love this country. I have every faith in my country. I want my country to make the right decision. For me - even taking into account the things that are wrong with the EU - that future needs to be inside an EU, working together to solve common problems, create parity, trade as part of one strong bloc, whilst still retaining our rich heritage and cultural history.

I'll end on the Claude Junckers threat. First, it's a very foolish thing to say and doesn't help. However, I'm not surprised. The UK is threatening to leave the EU and compete with the EU. In competition you are trying to do better than the other side. I read his comments and imagined us saying the same thing to Scotland when they had their referendum. Were we saying the same things? Probably.

A debate where you and to be fair virtually every other Remain advocate seem to ignore the real evidence of past and current experience of the costs associated with EU membership (one being uncontrolled EU immigration) but always believe highly subjective economic forecasts which are notoriously inaccurate. Returning to the substantive issue.

Mass immigration is a recognised term and accurately describes what has happened over the last 15 years. There is also evidence that it was a deliberate policy ( Blair's, Blunkett, Straw's speech writer – mass immigration didn’t just happen; the* deliberate policy of Ministers from late 2000…was to open up the UK to mass immigration’. . . He was at the heart of policy in September 2001, drafting the landmark speech by the then Immigration Minister Barbara Roche, and he reported ‘coming away from some discussions with the clear sense that the policy was intended - even if this wasn’t its main purpose - to rub the Right’s nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date’).

The above not including illegal immigration or the recent admission of even larger levels of immigration see NI numbers.. so 2016 still rising rapidly.

I won't bother providing links to reports showing the net fiscal impact of immigration (2001 – 2011) varies from negative costs varying from 0.3 Billion to 135 Billion as you have already decide there is a net benefit.

We just have to build a few more houses, schools, hospitals numerous other types of infrastructure services?

Not even clearing the huge backlog we would need to build around 240 houses every day for the next 20 years just to be able to cope with increased demand from future (ONS projected) migration.*

One years migration figures mean the UK needs to find school places equivalent to 27 new secondary schools or 100 new primary schools.*

The effect on the semi /unskilled job sector according to the Bank of England – every 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a two per cent reduction in pay.

3 million plus EU citizens now living here increasing pressure on the NHS and we have no control on how many more can arrive in future years. How do we plan for the correct amount of healthcare or any other service if we can't prevent possible huge variations in rates of immigration?

This is the reality of our current situation with a wave of new relatively poor countries on the EU/UK funded path to joining the EU. The increasing pressures and problems associated with mass immigration will continue. Speaking of which according to a recent poll 16% of Turks are considering moving here when they join, approximately 12 million people. Some say this is unlikely to happen but the UK government fully supports Turkish membership and is spending Billions to help it become a reality. As are the EU.

Your comments on the Scottish referendum are interesting the Scots voted remain but support for self determination increased as did support for the Nationalist party. Another referendum will happen at some point. It will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP support and Tory Euro sceptic opinion if a similar result occurs in a few weeks time.

As we know continually ignoring the concerns of the public on immigration is a dangerous game see the rest of Europe. Even today I read Austria may be about to vote in a far right President mainly due to concerns about migration exacerbated by EU rules on open borders and paralysis over the migrant crisis. We could end up with a situation where the UK electorate votes in a far more Euro-sceptic government and the EU wishing we would have voted to leave. Fingers crossed.

*See BBC EU referendum Fact Check

pastafarian · May 22, 2016

"Together, I want us to pave the road from Ankara to Brussels." David Cameron 2010

what a difference a referendum makes

Two Professors · May 22, 2016

What an absolute 24-carat bell-end Porky Cameron is!

Jim in the West · May 22, 2016

JC Footy Genius said:
A debate where you and to be fair virtually every other Remain advocate seem to ignore the real evidence of past and current experience of the costs associated with EU membership (one being uncontrolled EU immigration) but always believe highly subjective economic forecasts which are notoriously inaccurate. Returning to the substantive issue......I won't bother providing links to reports showing the net fiscal impact of immigration (2001 – 2011) varies from negative costs varying from 0.3 Billion to 135 Billion as you have already decide there is a net benefit.

We just have to build a few more houses, schools, hospitals numerous other types of infrastructure services?

Not even clearing the huge backlog we would need to build around 240 houses every day for the next 20 years just to be able to cope with increased demand from future (ONS projected) migration.*

One years migration figures mean the UK needs to find school places equivalent to 27 new secondary schools or 100 new primary schools.*

The effect on the semi /unskilled job sector according to the Bank of England – every 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a two per cent reduction in pay.

3 million plus EU citizens now living here increasing pressure on the NHS and we have no control on how many more can arrive in future years. How do we plan for the correct amount of healthcare or any other service if we can't prevent possible huge variations in rates of immigration?

Your comments on the Scottish referendum are interesting the Scots voted remain but support for self determination increased as did support for the Nationalist party. Another referendum will happen at some point. It will be interesting to see what happens to UKIP support and Tory Euro sceptic opinion if a similar result occurs in a few weeks time.

As we know continually ignoring the concerns of the public on immigration is a dangerous game see the rest of Europe.

*See BBC EU referendum Fact Check

Just dealing with a few of these:

- All the data that I've seen shows that EU immigrants are net contributors to our economy - the data published by HMRC for the tax year 2013/14 shows that EU immigrants paid over £2.5bn MORE in tax/NI than they received in benefits. We might have to build more hospitals, etc, but we have more people generating more GDP to do it....
- The effect on jobs and wages is minuscule. You quote a BoE report which talks about a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of immigrants leading to a 2% reduction in pay. Well, that may be so - but a 10 percentage point increase is absolutely huge. The proportion of EU immigrants is currently 6.8%, compared to 2.6% 10 years ago. So the increase over the past decade is 4.2 percentage points. The reports I have seen show a small downward effect for low-skilled workers in certain parts of the country, particularly shop assists and bar workers. The effect is less than 1% over the past 8 years.
- Healthcare - EU immigrants are on average much younger and much healthier than the average Brit. If you want to reduce the burden on the NHS do NOT do anything to stop the elderly and infirm moving to Spain (this is precisely what a Brexit would do - we will stop "exporting" those who have a drag on the NHS, and at the same time make it very difficult to recruit the staff we need to care for them. A Brexit would be a disaster for the NHS.
- The reason for supporting Turkish membership of the EU is to create the environment for a normalised Western democracy - politically that HAS to be the right thing to do. We have an opt out on Turkish nationals coming to live in the UK, anyway.
- The concerns of the public on immigration are frequently whipped up by the right wing media and (especially) the Brexit campaigners - it is slightly ironic that the same people then complain about the rise of far right parties. This is classic Daily Mail territory. If the public were subjected to a balanced debate, with real facts, rather than incessant anti-immigrant rhetoric (which often borders on the racist), then we wouldn't have that problem.

Jim in the West · May 22, 2016

beorhthelm said:
it not so much condescending as wrong, its another myth that didnt exist few months ago. any business that discarded 15k of business regardless of whether its 50% or 7%. in fact, it may be easier for the smaller company to find a new single deal to cover that revenue than the larger company that may struggle to grow or create new business. while the politicans might like to be carefree about that 7% UK trade, its not their businesses suffering. major exporters arent going to want to see their large UK market being eroded due to punitive tariffs, encouraging us to go elsewhere. or indeed, build ourselves...

I don't fully understand the point your making, but I'm not sure how easy it would be for that mythical company to cover nearly HALF of its business. If we can no longer export to the EU without significant punitive tariffs*, then where are we going to find the export markets to plug that huge gap? Businesses in the EU trading with us may be disadvantaged, but on average they will lose just 7% of their markets. [*And the only way we won't have punitive tariffs imposed is if we agree to free movement of people.....which is precisely what the Brexit camp don't want]

Two Professors · May 22, 2016

Suggesting that a Brexit would stop British pensioners moving to Spain etc is the biggest load of Remain bullcrap I've seen yet.Long before the EU existed,it wasn't just Nazi war criminals enjoying the Costas sunshine!The British pensioners form an essential part of Spain's income and even the most deluded Europhile would have to be certifiable to think they don't.Most pensioners already pay insurance premiums to cover healthcare costs that EHIC doesn't,so don't try that one,either. :yawn:

pastafarian · May 22, 2016

"Economists have a century of failure behind them. No wonder they back Remain now"

writes ALLISTER HEATH
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...entury-of-failure-behind-them-no-wonder-they/

"The problem this time around is that Remain economists assume that leaving the EU would mean reducing globalisation and halting most immigration. They assume that there are only costs and no benefits from leaving the EU, and thus conclude that we would be mad to leave."

"Ultimately, it’s a political judgment: I believe that a post-Brexit Britain, run by cosmopolitan Tories and backed by the West’s most open society, is the best way to enhance and legitimise globalisation in the UK.

"I believe that the EU’s anti-democratic institutions are unsustainable and thus pose a great threat to the liberal international economic order its UK supporters claim to be defending. That is why, dear readers, I will be ignoring the majority of economists and voting Leave."

and yes like everything else to do with the economy and brexit the article is simply an opinion

pigbite · May 22, 2016

Isn't it just possible that the sky won't fall down in either outcome?

I think Brexit would cause some short term economic uncertainty but it would be resolved eventually. My biggest concern about leaving is that we would end up having to make concessions on the very things we would be expecting to gain autonomy on so we could get the right trading arrangement. On that basis, slightly reluctantly, I think it's better to stay in and try and work from the inside.

looney · May 22, 2016

pigbite said:
Isn't it just possible that the sky won't fall down in either outcome?

12 million turks gearing up to come here?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/672563/Turkey-EU-Britain-exclusive-poll-crime-figures-Turks

GT49er · May 22, 2016

Two Professors said:
Suggesting that a Brexit would stop British pensioners moving to Spain etc is the biggest load of Remain bullcrap I've seen yet.Long before the EU existed,it wasn't just Nazi war criminals enjoying the Costas sunshine!The British pensioners form an essential part of Spain's income and even the most deluded Europhile would have to be certifiable to think they don't.Most pensioners already pay insurance premiums to cover healthcare costs that EHIC doesn't,so don't try that one,either.

Exactly - we all know that. And they are getting paid their BRITISH pensions too. But, certain people don't let the facts get in the way of a bit of scaremongering, eh!

JC Footy Genius · May 22, 2016

Jim in the West said:
Just dealing with a few of these:

- All the data that I've seen shows that EU immigrants are net contributors to our economy - the data published by HMRC for the tax year 2013/14 shows that EU immigrants paid over £2.5bn MORE in tax/NI than they received in benefits. We might have to build more hospitals, etc, but we have more people generating more GDP to do it....
- The effect on jobs and wages is minuscule. You quote a BoE report which talks about a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of immigrants leading to a 2% reduction in pay. Well, that may be so - but a 10 percentage point increase is absolutely huge. The proportion of EU immigrants is currently 6.8%, compared to 2.6% 10 years ago. So the increase over the past decade is 4.2 percentage points. The reports I have seen show a small downward effect for low-skilled workers in certain parts of the country, particularly shop assists and bar workers. The effect is less than 1% over the past 8 years.
- Healthcare - EU immigrants are on average much younger and much healthier than the average Brit. If you want to reduce the burden on the NHS do NOT do anything to stop the elderly and infirm moving to Spain (this is precisely what a Brexit would do - we will stop "exporting" those who have a drag on the NHS, and at the same time make it very difficult to recruit the staff we need to care for them. A Brexit would be a disaster for the NHS.
- The reason for supporting Turkish membership of the EU is to create the environment for a normalised Western democracy - politically that HAS to be the right thing to do. We have an opt out on Turkish nationals coming to live in the UK, anyway.
- The concerns of the public on immigration are frequently whipped up by the right wing media and (especially) the Brexit campaigners - it is slightly ironic that the same people then complain about the rise of far right parties. This is classic Daily Mail territory. If the public were subjected to a balanced debate, with real facts, rather than incessant anti-immigrant rhetoric (which often borders on the racist), then we wouldn't have that problem.

Perhaps you should try and find more data then and don't assume costs only relate to a simplistic tax/NI to benefits criteria. There are numerous reports and studies giving a wide range of supposed costs and benefits. Some show a negative overall net fiscal impact even for EEA immigrants.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/economics

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/fiscal-impact-immigration-uk

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/employment-welfare

The effects on jobs and wages obviously doesn't effect you so can be dismissed as an irrelevance. This I'm alright Jack attitude seems to be a common trait amongst Remain supporters.

Brexit being a disaster for the NHS is an absurd statement to make as you have no idea what the future arrangements would be or have any idea on the costs of supplying healthcare to a rapidly growing population driven by immigration. By the way immigrants also age so by your logic we need perpetual mass immigration to keep the NHS running.

Turkish membership of the EU would mean all 80 million of their citizens would have the right to work and live here. 12 million ish would apparently quite like to.

Fortunately the old ploy of crying racism to suppress legitimate public concern about immigration doesn't wash anymore.

Two Professors · May 22, 2016

I see the mighty financial entity that is Montenegro has negotiated a preferential trade deal with China!Why are they,a country of less than a million people,able to do this,and Britain presumed to not be capable of doing the same?Don't suppose anybody from Remain would care to comment on this,preferably without mention of the IMF,EUCB,CBI,LSE,BOE,or UTCAA?

Made that last one up,I must admit-Uncle Tom Cobley and All.Don't think Osborne has claimed his support yet :lolol:

beorhthelm · May 22, 2016

Jim in the West said:
I don't fully understand the point your making, but I'm not sure how easy it would be for that mythical company to cover nearly HALF of its business.

well its your contrived example to compare to individual companies, i'd suggest a company that has only 2 clients probably is small and has a larger market out there to expand into. the point was (and may have been missed to truncated sentance) that no business would readily sacrifice a few % of their revenue and stay in business long. as i say, the politicans can talk up the potential for punitive tariffs, once the paymasters in business have a word that will change and pragmatism take over.

GT49er · May 22, 2016

Jim in the West said:
Just dealing with a few of these:

- All the data that I've seen shows that EU immigrants are net contributors to our economy - the data published by HMRC for the tax year 2013/14 shows that EU immigrants paid over £2.5bn MORE in tax/NI than they received in benefits. We might have to build more hospitals, etc, but we have more people generating more GDP to do it....
- The effect on jobs and wages is minuscule. You quote a BoE report which talks about a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of immigrants leading to a 2% reduction in pay. Well, that may be so - but a 10 percentage point increase is absolutely huge. The proportion of EU immigrants is currently 6.8%, compared to 2.6% 10 years ago. So the increase over the past decade is 4.2 percentage points. The reports I have seen show a small downward effect for low-skilled workers in certain parts of the country, particularly shop assists and bar workers. The effect is less than 1% over the past 8 years.
- Healthcare - EU immigrants are on average much younger and much healthier than the average Brit. If you want to reduce the burden on the NHS do NOT do anything to stop the elderly and infirm moving to Spain (this is precisely what a Brexit would do - we will stop "exporting" those who have a drag on the NHS, and at the same time make it very difficult to recruit the staff we need to care for them. A Brexit would be a disaster for the NHS.
- The reason for supporting Turkish membership of the EU is to create the environment for a normalised Western democracy - politically that HAS to be the right thing to do. We have an opt out on Turkish nationals coming to live in the UK, anyway.
- The concerns of the public on immigration are frequently whipped up by the right wing media and (especially) the Brexit campaigners - it is slightly ironic that the same people then complain about the rise of far right parties. This is classic Daily Mail territory. If the public were subjected to a balanced debate, with real facts, rather than incessant anti-immigrant rhetoric (which often borders on the racist), then we wouldn't have that problem.

Ah, another desperate 'remainer' still clinging to the fatuous belief that somehow the NHS stops paying for healthcare for English pensioners who relocate to Spain. They still cost the NHS money. And Britain still pays their old age pensions.
But never mind, put your hands over your ears and go 'La la la la la' very loudly. That'll make the fact go away.

Bladders · May 22, 2016

Westdene Seagull said:
Oh for heavens sake - this figure has been proven to be complete bollocks ages ago. Even if we believe the figure it based on the average household income being £78k - a figure many households don't even get close to. It was also based on what GDP might be in 2030 yet calculated using the number of households NOW. Ask yourself why they didn't use the predicted number of households in 2030 ? Ah, yes, because it the number wouldn't look nearly as scary. Finally, you can't miss what you've never had - it's not that money is going to be taken from peoples incomes directly - it's like you have received slightly smaller pay rises each year.

[MENTION=12902]hamster[/MENTION] Gull is a clown of the highest order

He has entered a debate totally out of his depth

I suggest all ignore his Rodger Red Hat level of postings on this subject from now on

pigbite · May 22, 2016

I think the Turkish membership of the EU is a concern but 12 million Turks are not going to turn up on our doorstep overnight.

yxee · May 22, 2016

pigbite said:
I think the Turkish membership of the EU is a concern but 12 million Turks are not going to turn up on our doorstep overnight.

No.

Probably a million or two will make their way over here in the next 10-15 years. Enough to put national services under further stress that they cannot handle.

Hampster Gull · May 22, 2016

Bladders said:
[MENTION=12902]hamster[/MENTION] Gull is a clown of the highest order

He has entered a debate totally out of his depth

I suggest all ignore his Rodger Red Hat level of postings on this subject from now on

What an obnoxious comment. You know so little

Deleted member 22389 · May 22, 2016

pigbite said:
I think the Turkish membership of the EU is a concern but 12 million Turks are not going to turn up on our doorstep overnight.

Probably 30k - 40k a year on top of Albanians, Romainians, Bulgarians, Polish and everyone else, not including the refugees / economic migrants who will get EU citizenship one day and the ones that already have.

We could be seeing migration running at 600k a year in total quite easily, and this still doesn't include the illegals.
It is far too many people now, and it will far too many people in the future.

They took the piss out of Farage when Romania and Bulgaria got free movement to the EU, but year on year we have seen an increase of people coming to this country.

5ways · May 22, 2016

yxee said:
No.

Probably a million or two will make their way over here in the next 10-15 years. Enough to put national services under further stress that they cannot handle.

Turkish membership progressing at it's current rates will arrive just before the next millennia. You don't need to sweat it because it is not going to happen

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