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General Election 2015
- Thread starter Herr Tubthumper
- Start date
Camicus
New member
That's my new avatar sorted
Curious Orange
Punxsatawney Phil
Copied from Twitter
Cameron morphed with Kim Jong Un
Turns out to be Ed Balls! Scary stuff indeed!
clippedgull
Hotdogs, extra onions
Or Nick Griffin!
The tweet I saw last night said it was Darren Gough at the end of his playing career. I thought that was a good likeness.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Okay then. I'm obviously terminologically challenged as in 'apolitical' I meant non-party. There, are you happy now!
Love the Aristotle BTW!
Very happy thanks, hope you are too. And while we're spreading love, your tagline about non-decisions is great.
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,105
Good joke by CMD in PMQs...
"I do feel sorry for the Leader of the Opposition...
... he literally doesn't know where his next meal is coming from..!"
Ed Miliband more concerned with trying to get an answer about Tory broken promises on NHS.
"I do feel sorry for the Leader of the Opposition...
... he literally doesn't know where his next meal is coming from..!"
Ed Miliband more concerned with trying to get an answer about Tory broken promises on NHS.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Thanks! The line is from a Rush song by Neal Peart.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
Yet again Cameron refuses to answer questions at PMQ's, no wonder he is too scared to do a TV debate with Miliband
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
Who said this before the last election ?
- We pledge a cast-iron guarantee of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty
- We pledge to reduce the deficit by 100% in one term
- We pledge no VAT rise
- We pledge to reduce nett migration to the tens of thousands
- We pledge there'll be no top-down reorganization of the NHS
- Read my lips...I will not means-test child benefit
- We don't have any plans to get rid of Education Maintenance Allowance
- Yes, we back Sure Start. Sure Start will stay, and we'll improve it.
- The Future Jobs Fund is a good scheme and we have no plans to change it.
- I promise to keep the Child Trust Fund for the poorest families
- It is totally unacceptable for bank bonuses to be paid on the back of taxpayer guarantees. It must stop!
- No bonuses over £2000 for Bankers!
- We pledge no cuts to frontline services
- We will stop A&E and maternity closures
- The "Military Covenant" will be enshrined in law
- We will not cut Pensioners Winter Fuel Allowance
- We promise to give energy regulators more power
- We support the recall bill and the right for voters to sack bad MPs
- We pledge to set up a UK Border Police Force
- Anyone caught carrying a knife should expect a jail term
- We pledge a cast-iron guarantee of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty
- We pledge to reduce the deficit by 100% in one term
- We pledge no VAT rise
- We pledge to reduce nett migration to the tens of thousands
- We pledge there'll be no top-down reorganization of the NHS
- Read my lips...I will not means-test child benefit
- We don't have any plans to get rid of Education Maintenance Allowance
- Yes, we back Sure Start. Sure Start will stay, and we'll improve it.
- The Future Jobs Fund is a good scheme and we have no plans to change it.
- I promise to keep the Child Trust Fund for the poorest families
- It is totally unacceptable for bank bonuses to be paid on the back of taxpayer guarantees. It must stop!
- No bonuses over £2000 for Bankers!
- We pledge no cuts to frontline services
- We will stop A&E and maternity closures
- The "Military Covenant" will be enshrined in law
- We will not cut Pensioners Winter Fuel Allowance
- We promise to give energy regulators more power
- We support the recall bill and the right for voters to sack bad MPs
- We pledge to set up a UK Border Police Force
- Anyone caught carrying a knife should expect a jail term
Phil "the Power" Taylor?
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Ashcroft's latest marginals are out, and this is the key poll to look at, because that's where the key seats to the election will be. This from political betting and, again, I managed to get in ahead of [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] on this one:
The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals.
Lord Ashcroft says
My findings this time suggest the better national news for the Conservatives is not spread evenly across the battleground. In only one of the seats, Worcester, has a Labour lead turned into a Tory one. In Croydon Central, the Labour lead has fallen from six points to four (in a seat that shows the biggest shift between the standard voting intention question and the result when people are asked to think about their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there).
But Southampton Itchen has gone from a tie to an eight-point advantage for Labour, and in the four remaining seats Labour’s lead has increased, most notably from one point to eleven points in Chester. South Swindon remains tied.
The fieldwork was quite recent, between the 26th of February and the 12th of March, in December, his polling saw a Con to Lab swing of 3.5%, now with this batch, and the batch at the start of March, 5% Con to Lab Swing looks like the norm.
As it has been for a while it would appear that Labour are doing better in the marginals, and that the prices on Labour having most seats/Ed Miliband being the Prime Minister after the election is where the value is. Amazing to think that a Labour majority was around 32 a few weeks ago on Betfair.
But as Lord Ashcroft notes and promises
Even voters in marginal seats who do not flock to LordAshcroftPolls.com for the latest data will hear about it in the local media, and those inclined to vote tactically will be better informed than ever before. For that reason, even constituency polls published close to election day may not match the final result. My research will continue throughout the campaign to monitor the situation as it evolves.
The full data tables are available here.
The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals.
Lord Ashcroft says
My findings this time suggest the better national news for the Conservatives is not spread evenly across the battleground. In only one of the seats, Worcester, has a Labour lead turned into a Tory one. In Croydon Central, the Labour lead has fallen from six points to four (in a seat that shows the biggest shift between the standard voting intention question and the result when people are asked to think about their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there).
But Southampton Itchen has gone from a tie to an eight-point advantage for Labour, and in the four remaining seats Labour’s lead has increased, most notably from one point to eleven points in Chester. South Swindon remains tied.
The fieldwork was quite recent, between the 26th of February and the 12th of March, in December, his polling saw a Con to Lab swing of 3.5%, now with this batch, and the batch at the start of March, 5% Con to Lab Swing looks like the norm.
As it has been for a while it would appear that Labour are doing better in the marginals, and that the prices on Labour having most seats/Ed Miliband being the Prime Minister after the election is where the value is. Amazing to think that a Labour majority was around 32 a few weeks ago on Betfair.
But as Lord Ashcroft notes and promises
Even voters in marginal seats who do not flock to LordAshcroftPolls.com for the latest data will hear about it in the local media, and those inclined to vote tactically will be better informed than ever before. For that reason, even constituency polls published close to election day may not match the final result. My research will continue throughout the campaign to monitor the situation as it evolves.
The full data tables are available here.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
And more from political betting:
h12010 LDs are nearly twice as likely to switch to LAB in the marginals as they are in Ashcroft’s national polls
March 18th, 2015
This is the main driver of the bigger CON to LAB swing in the marginals
I was on a train heading to London to speak at a conference when Lord Ashcroft’s latest CON-LAB battleground polling was published yesterday and have only now got round to looking at the detail.
The most striking feature and a big driver of Labour’s strength in the seats polled is how well the party is doing in attracting and retaining 2010 LD to LAB switchers. What’s even more marked is that the levels of switching appear to be substantially greater in the single constituency polls than in Lord Ashcroft’s national surveys.
I looked at the proportion of switchers in the last four Ashcroft National polls and compared them with the average level of switching in this latest round of marginals’ polling.
The positive feature for the Conservatives in all of this is that in the CON-LAB marginals there were fewer LD voters than in the country as a whole. So the greater propensity to switch covers a smaller segment of the electorate.
The level of switching, however, more than compensates for this.
All polls are snapshots and this might not continue until May 7th. On the other hand the still large number of 2010 LD voters yet to make up their minds are likely to come into play.
We are promised much more from Lord A in the weeks that remain and I will continue to track this.
Lord Ashcroft’s English polling could have a similar level of bad news for the Tories in England as his surveys North of the have for Labour.
Mike Smithson
h12010 LDs are nearly twice as likely to switch to LAB in the marginals as they are in Ashcroft’s national polls
March 18th, 2015
This is the main driver of the bigger CON to LAB swing in the marginals
I was on a train heading to London to speak at a conference when Lord Ashcroft’s latest CON-LAB battleground polling was published yesterday and have only now got round to looking at the detail.
The most striking feature and a big driver of Labour’s strength in the seats polled is how well the party is doing in attracting and retaining 2010 LD to LAB switchers. What’s even more marked is that the levels of switching appear to be substantially greater in the single constituency polls than in Lord Ashcroft’s national surveys.
I looked at the proportion of switchers in the last four Ashcroft National polls and compared them with the average level of switching in this latest round of marginals’ polling.
The positive feature for the Conservatives in all of this is that in the CON-LAB marginals there were fewer LD voters than in the country as a whole. So the greater propensity to switch covers a smaller segment of the electorate.
The level of switching, however, more than compensates for this.
All polls are snapshots and this might not continue until May 7th. On the other hand the still large number of 2010 LD voters yet to make up their minds are likely to come into play.
We are promised much more from Lord A in the weeks that remain and I will continue to track this.
Lord Ashcroft’s English polling could have a similar level of bad news for the Tories in England as his surveys North of the have for Labour.
Mike Smithson
Dandyman
In London village.
Did the Con-Dems stand on a joint ticket ? No Did they give the electorate the chance to decide if they supported a coalition by holding fresh elections ? No.
The Liberals have made 5 years of a extremist right-wing attempt to destroy the Welfare State possible. They have supported regressive taxation, massive service cuts, the bedroom tax, the scraping of the school building programme, lied about tuition fees, and cheered on the creeping privitisation of the NHS.
larus
Well-known member
Actually, referendum allows the defining issues in politics to be de-politicised. The problem with politics/politicians is that most don't vote on their conscience/interests of the electorate, they toe the party line to seek promotion, I.e. self interest.
Switzerland holds a lot of referendums I believe and they don't seem to do too bad.
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 30,668
That's democracy for you.
- Thread starter
- #2,377
Some clever people with big brains are predicting Ed to lead the nation.
"Academics predict Labour will win 20 more seats than Tories and form next government"
http://may2015.com/featured/electio...e-seats-than-tories-and-form-next-government/
"Academics predict Labour will win 20 more seats than Tories and form next government"
http://may2015.com/featured/electio...e-seats-than-tories-and-form-next-government/
- Thread starter
- #2,378
Did the nation decide it didn't want a majority government? YES
Do you have to trust the MPs you have elected form a government? YES
Do you keep going with further election until you have some fudged majority which is what you are suggesting? NO
pastafarian
Well-known member
can i just interject and just say none of you have a frigging clue what is going to happen.
that is what makes this one of the most interesting elections in my lifetime......also if you cant be bothered to get involved in this election ......screw you.......imbeciles!
that is what makes this one of the most interesting elections in my lifetime......also if you cant be bothered to get involved in this election ......screw you.......imbeciles!
Not sure what's worse, toffs dishing out crumbs to the peasants or academics trying to second guess the working man...