[Politics] Brexit

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
We certainly have a few High Priests of Project Fear on NSC. The most disappointing thing is some people not being willing to even consider the thought that they may have been wrong (or partly wrong) about the consequences of voting for Brexit and giving it a chance. Any sensible, open minded person should concede the past six months have not matched the dire Project Fear predictions made specifically about the short term effects. Overall we have coped reasonably well considering the political/economic turbulence.

Any sensible, open minded person, would realise that until we know a little more about our governments stance, there is concern rather than panic. The decision of the court, the plan to be unveiled to Parliament if required, the decision of parliament to back or sack that plan, the possible new plan that Parliament will back and possibly some other twists and turns not foreseen, will decide how things go when we trigger.

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

Soulman said:
Of course things can not and will not continue as it was pre Brexit, stating the obvious, but I believe Germany for one were threatening to "inflict hardships" on us.

I believe Germany, at least Chancellor Merkel, were the first to say that any thoughts of a punitive stance should be quickly forgotten.

Soulman · Jan 5, 2017

Baldseagull said:
I believe Germany, at least Chancellor Merkel, were the first to say that any thoughts of a punitive stance should be quickly forgotten.

Would you trust Merkel, or the incoming leader if she is given the boot.

JC Footy Genius · Jan 5, 2017

Baldseagull said:
Any sensible, open minded person, would realise that until we know a little more about our governments stance, there is concern rather than panic. The decision of the court, the plan to be unveiled to Parliament if required, the decision of parliament to back or sack that plan, the possible new plan that Parliament will back and possibly some other twists and turns not foreseen, will decide how things go when we trigger.

Understandable concern is one thing but some peeps on here are just wallowing in petulant negativity.

You may not have long to wait.

Theresa May to set out 'Brexit vision' and warn UK will quit single market if it is not given control over borders

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...rexit-vision-warn-uk-will-quit-single-market/

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
Understandable concern is one thing but some peeps on here are just wallowing in petulant negativity.

You may not have long to wait.

Theresa May to set out 'Brexit vision' and warn UK will quit single market if it is not given control over borders

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...rexit-vision-warn-uk-will-quit-single-market/

If she delivers a speech along those lines, it will produce a further drop in the pound, but I don't think Business will start actually implementing their contingency plans until something a bit more concrete happens.

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

Soulman said:
Would you trust Merkel, or the incoming leader if she is given the boot.

Up to you who you trust, but what I replied to was your comment that Germany had been threatening to inflict hardships on the UK. I don't think they have, and can recall the opposite being said by Merkel.

GT49er · Jan 5, 2017

Baldseagull said:
Given the situation being handed to them now, they have two choices, make a change in policy that would allow the UK to reconsider it's position on leaving..................

It's the hope that kills you, isn't it? This is not an option, it won't happen! We have voted to leave, and much as you would love it, there won't be a second referendum to see if we can get the 'right' result next time around!

The EU had chances to make changes in policy decisions - or to choose different policies - in the past, but they chose the policies they are now pursuing, which is why we're leaving

Two Professors · Jan 5, 2017

Baldseagull said:
Indeed it is, but there are the WTO terms if we can't agree, although we would need to join as we are not members in our own right, our membership is tied to the EU. Getting WTO membership, agreements on subsidies and quotas is going to be a difficult job too. I know you guys won't have it, it is all so simple and easy when Farage says it, but it really is not so simple, and it will not be quick.

You might want to re-think that one.The facts are;

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

nicko31 said:
My friend who is a farmer was at that meeting, shes widely regarded as a complete joke in the sector. How her name was ever considered for PM is beyond me, is still going on about exporting jam and biscuits as part of our export drive?

Farming is going to be one of the most difficult areas for us in the whole separation, to be fair.

Two Professors · Jan 5, 2017

I see the bile-spouters have a new target in Leadsom.I'm sure she will give less than 1 f**k about the opinions of some never-has-beens on a football fan site! :flounce:

In more interesting statistics out this week,confirmation of who is benefitting from the EU joke;

studio150 · Jan 5, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
Understandable concern is one thing but some peeps on here are just wallowing in petulant negativity.

You may not have long to wait.

Theresa May to set out 'Brexit vision' and warn UK will quit single market if it is not given control over borders

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...rexit-vision-warn-uk-will-quit-single-market/

Ah yes, the standard leavers jib, negativity is not allowed.

Sensible people save for a rainy day, consider the impacts of (for example) higher interest rates when buying a house, and don't just go around saying everything is wonderful when the wolf is at the door.

Its not wallowing around in negativity it is purely looking at what could occur (or has occurred but hey you ignore bad news) and looking at the worst that could occur. Move forward 2 years and if we are in a better position, then we will be happier. On the flip side leavers may well be moaning as what they thought was going to be delivered has not been fully, and they suddenly realise that they are financially worse off.

If they then think this is a shock then clearly they have been walking around for 2 years with their heads in the clouds ignoring all the warning signs.

studio150 · Jan 5, 2017

Two Professors said:
I see the bile-spouters have a new target in Leadsom.I'm sure she will give less than 1 f**k about the opinions of some never-has-beens on a football fan site!
In more interesting statistics out this week,confirmation of who is benefitting from the EU joke;
View attachment 80813

Who can take this seriously if the United States are placed in European data

Behind Enemy Lines · Jan 5, 2017

GT49er said:
Don't worry - Plan A is very simple. We trigger Article 50, and then negotiate trade deals etc. Don't take too much notice of Sir Ivan Rogers attempts to cause further fear and uncertainty. The man's an out and out Europhile, who doesn't want us to leave the EU at all - and thus, like all remoaners, he regards the very idea of leaving the EU as 'muddle headed thinking'.
As a civil servant, is job was to negotiate our departure from the EU - and that was something he obviously didn't want to do at all. So he's gone. Leaving some snide remarks behind. Now we've got a new man in, so hopefully we can get on with Plan A.

I don’t think Sir Ivan's comments were "snide." Rather, after a life time’s work as a diplomat and many years of top experience with dealing with our EU neighbours, he set out genuine concerns. And as our man in Brussels, he should know more than most - perhaps more than any other - about what the other EU countries are really thinking. He’s worked with three Prime Ministers, Labour and Conservative. I think that sort of experience makes him someone whom we should all listen to.
Instead, what did the Tories do? Disgracefully rubbished and smeared him. But what’s even more worrying is that Ian Duncan Smith couldn’t even accept that some even a small bit of what Sir Ivan said might, just might, be worth thinking about. It’s the arrogance, that absolute certainty of the closed mind, which I find so dangerous.
You say we’ll trigger Article 50 and “then negotiate trade deals etc “as if it’s like booking a holiday. These are immensely complex things to do. CETA took 7 years and most experts agree that deals will take between 5 and 10 years. So Sir Ivan’s warning of 10 years may not be far off the mark.
"Get on with Plan A?” Some notion of a start would be welcome. We're now less than 3 months (!) from triggering Article 50 and there's still no plan. You couldn't make it up.

GT49er · Jan 5, 2017

Behind Enemy Lines said:
I don’t think Sir Ivan's comments were "snide."

That's your opinion, fine. I'll stick with mine.

Behind Enemy Lines said:
"Get on with Plan A?” Some notion of a start would be welcome. We're now less than 3 months (!) from triggering Article 50 and there's still no plan. You couldn't make it up.

I don't have to make it up. Plan A is to trigger Article 50 and leave the EU - sooner the better!

Two Professors · Jan 5, 2017

studio150 said:
Who can take this seriously if the United States are placed in European data

I thought the statistics of the OECD were Holy Writ to remoaners-blasphemy

Two Professors · Jan 5, 2017

Baldseagull said:
I believe Germany, at least Chancellor Merkel, were the first to say that any thoughts of a punitive stance should be quickly forgotten.

Well her right hand man didn't agree.This is one of the milder things said.I thought I'd get it from the Grauniad so you can't say it's made up!

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

Two Professors said:
You might want to re-think that one.The facts are;
View attachment 80812

OK, I apologise, we are members, but our terms of membership are tied to us being members of the EU, we would need to renegotiate our position in the WTO, we could not just hang on to all the arrangements we have by virtue of being EU members.
We would have to negotiate these deals and it is etremely unlikely that we could just carry on as if we were an EU member state.
Likewise, the EU will have some areas to renegotiate, and we will need them to agree to what portion of quotas can become UK rather than EU. The EU has a big advantage in that it is currently considered as 29 members of the WTO, obviously this would drop to 28, but it gives it a rather unique position in the WTO in that it can, as one body have more than one vote on any agreement, and by sheer size, has far more sway than we would alone.

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

Two Professors said:
Well her right hand man didn't agree.This is one of the milder things said.I thought I'd get it from the Grauniad so you can't say it's made up!
View attachment 80816

How is that a threat? He is stating fact, that if you want to ditch free movement and contributions, you can't then get the type of access that countries that do play by the rules get.

Baldseagull · Jan 5, 2017

GT49er said:
It's the hope that kills you, isn't it? This is not an option, it won't happen! We have voted to leave, and much as you would love it, there won't be a second referendum to see if we can get the 'right' result next time around!

The EU had chances to make changes in policy decisions - or to choose different policies - in the past, but they chose the policies they are now pursuing, which is why we're leaving

I didn't say I expected it, but it as an option.

beorhthelm · Jan 5, 2017

studio150 said:
So from the SMMT today, car prices to rise by 2-3% due to the weaker pound. This is not just imported cars but also UK manufactured due the importation of parts. But of more interest is the £1500 that would apply if tariffs were applied and if outside of a custom union, that parts will take longer to acquire as well as being more expensive, So that when it comes to repairs vehicles may be sitting idle for sometime waiting for parts to arrive.

Meanwhile EU manufactured vehicles continue to be sold at lower prices throughout the EU and can be repaired far quicker.

Just think how more costly and difficult this would be if we weren't in a position of strength.

of course, well known that Japanese and Korean car owners have to wait for their cars to be repaired. and the extra costs of those vehicles. less well known is often parts for cars made in EU are shipped in from outside EU, from Mexico, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, US, apparently this is all going to be a problem if we leave the EU. or just more scaremongering or positioning to get a slice of hand out?

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