I'm not sure I follow all that, mon vieux, but I'll give a reply a go. The Bosman analogy may have been ill considered, but no deal is still no deal. I assume by no deal you and I can agree what we mean: at the end of negociations we Brexit with no agreement over trade, residents rights, movement of people. So, what happens is we get to use our passports, use and require use of visas, we tell lots of EU workers to leave, and we engage with 'default' trade arrangements of the sort we presently have with the likes of, er, Yemen, Peru and North Korea. Yes of course we could then start making individual deals including allowing a lot of essential workers to stay, and allowing cars to be imported from Germany and France (since we make none of our own) etc. But all this will take time to set up, and will be messy. Certainly I can see 100s of thousands of EU people resident here suddenly losing rights, randomly being turned away from the doctors, randomly sacked or not sacked depending on what an employer feels is best for him/her or what he/she can get away with, and all this done haphazardly, with the left wing media howling with anguish and the right wing media highlighting foreigners who are still working/claiming benefits in defiance of Brexit, and whipping up feelings of outrage.
I appreciate that some folk couldn't care less about the suffering of foreigners living here, so let's park that. However what about the economy and the social climate? We have not seen the true impact of Brexit on the economy yet because we have not Brexitted yet. The economy operates rather like climate. The laws of the maths of chaos apply, with crashes, when the come, hard to predict (see 1929). That said, Brexit will generate 'strange attractors' and there will be turbulence, for sure. We have seen 15% interest rates and 15% inflation rates and 5 million unemployed in my lifetime, when we supposedly had a smashing chancellor (Lawson) and PM (Thatcher). I cannot be certain we will get this again, but the likelihood is there. I find that I don't feel less concerned about this if I just dismiss it as 'project fear' and laugh into my pint. When nobody has any idea what may happen, I am not comforted by folk sneering at the possibility it might not all go swimmingly.
And then of course there is the social unrest. How are certain types going to react when they find, a year after Brexit, there are still hoards of Poles picking our fruit, and all those people from outside the EU you see swarming about in London doing casual work in the black economy are still here? I can be much more certain about the latter since these people from outside the EU should not be here now if it were truly the case that we know how to control our borders. The clue is 'outside the EU'. If I were a Brexitter, motivated by a desire to throw out foreigners, letting people in only on work visas as dictated by economic need, I would be pretty cross indeed to see no change from what we have now. If that were my mindset I would certainly look into vigilantism. Especially after an evening's worth of beer with likeminded chums.
Ghastly, by anyone's reconing.
The Irland point you raise is also very intresting. Indeed, 'no deal' Brexit would mean a hard border. Even a properly negociated Brexit is challnging; either there should be a hard border or not. I can see the fields of the border country becoming the new (and far more porous) Calais. By EU rules, as now, it will be very possible to enter Europe via boat via Italy and end up mooching about in Ireland. The only solution is to build a wall like the one Trump has built to keep out the Mexicans....... oh.
What a mess. And people STILL think this is all fantastic
