General Election 2015

Hatterlovesbrighton · Mar 6, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
They have said it will only happen on renegotiated terms. So, they will remain true to their word as they cannot and will not be in a position to change anything.

And I'm saying if that happens then hundreds of conservative MPs will defect to UKIP overnight. Cameron knows that.

He has to deliver a referendum or he is dead in the water.

Whichever way you think about it, if Cameron is in power there is a chance (I say a very high chance, you say a very low chance) that there will be a referendum. With Labour there is no chance.

Bozza · Mar 6, 2015

Did anyone watch Questiontime last night?

The SNP chap kept banging on and on about how they would never support the Tories under any circumstances, but would consider backing Labour on an issue by issue basis.

Is there literally no scenario at all where a Tory proposal would also be seen as favourable by the SNP and, if so, would they still block it out of principle?

Vegas Seagull · Mar 6, 2015

seagullsovergrimsby said:
YouGov/Sun latest poll = CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
This poll was done before Chicken Licken told us there would only be one mass debate

YouGov have massively chopped the sample size to be able to churn out daily. Far too volatile & almost! worth ignoring.
Coral going 8/15 and the Magic Sign putting the individual seats odds for blues to favourites for the first time help to confuse the whole thing
Lord Ashcrofts focus groups asked what Film character they would associate with Red Ed & Mr Bean won. He is going to blow any hopes, even 20 % of actual Labour voters don't want him as PM

8ace · Mar 6, 2015

Vegas Seagull said:
YouGov have massively chopped the sample size to be able to churn out daily. Far too volatile & almost! worth ignoring.

What is the margin of error

seagullsovergrimsby · Mar 6, 2015

Greens now saying they would welcome an alliance with the SNP (and Plaid Cymru)

seagullsovergrimsby · Mar 6, 2015

8ace said:
What is the margin of error

Labour supporters = 0 Conservative supporters = +/- 5 :lol:

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 6, 2015

seagullsovergrimsby said:
Greens now saying they would welcome an alliance with the SNP (and Plaid Cymru)

Red Ed is closing in on number 10.

Green Cross Code Man · Mar 6, 2015

Bozza said:
Did anyone watch Questiontime last night?

The SNP chap kept banging on and on about how they would never support the Tories under any circumstances, but would consider backing Labour on an issue by issue basis.

Is there literally no scenario at all where a Tory proposal would also be seen as favourable by the SNP and, if so, would they still block it out of principle?

How about if the Tories had a change of heart and decided to give Scotland full blown independence? I think all principles would quickly be forgotten.

Westdene Seagull · Mar 6, 2015

Bozza said:
Did anyone watch Questiontime last night?

The SNP chap kept banging on and on about how they would never support the Tories under any circumstances, but would consider backing Labour on an issue by issue basis.

Is there literally no scenario at all where a Tory proposal would also be seen as favourable by the SNP and, if so, would they still block it out of principle?

I haven't watched yet but making that sort of statement makes the SNP as stupid as the voters who claim 'My father always voted x and so have I and I always will'.

Monsieur Le Plonk · Mar 6, 2015

Bozza said:
Did anyone watch Questiontime last night?

The SNP chap kept banging on and on about how they would never support the Tories under any circumstances, but would consider backing Labour on an issue by issue basis.

Is there literally no scenario at all where a Tory proposal would also be seen as favourable by the SNP and, if so, would they still block it out of principle?

Milliband is thought by some to be announcing this weekend his stance on a coalition with the SNP.
If he is amenable to a coalition with the SNP then I guess his support for the Union in the Scottish Referendum must now be questioned. Jumping into bed with a party whose raison d'etre is to break up the union rather goes against his populist stance of a few months ago.
I guess the decision he makes on this will flush out how genuine he is.
.

somerset · Mar 6, 2015

Monsieur Le Plonk said:
....Jumping into bed with a party whose raison d'etre is to break up the union rather goes against his populist stance....
.

Would sound the death nell for any party, SNP simply doesn't want to help anyone other than the Jocks,......

Monsieur Le Plonk · Mar 6, 2015

somerset said:
Would sound the death nell for any party, SNP simply doesn't want to help anyone other than the Jocks,......

....and yet If Ed goes for it he's odds on to get the keys to number 10. Interesting dilemma.

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 6, 2015

somerset said:
Would sound the death nell for any party, SNP simply doesn't want to help anyone other than the Jocks,......

The SNP will clearly have to put aside their desire for independence in any coalition negotiation. They'll use/trade this for a handful of other key items. This is how coalitions work.

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 6, 2015

Monsieur Le Plonk said:
Milliband is thought by some to be announcing this weekend his stance on a coalition with the SNP.
If he is amenable to a coalition with the SNP then I guess his support for the Union in the Scottish Referendum must now be questioned. Jumping into bed with a party whose raison d'etre is to break up the union rather goes against his populist stance of a few months ago.
I guess the decision he makes on this will flush out how genuine he is.
.

Why will it question his support for the union? I'm certain that independence will be totally non-negotiable in any coalition. And if this is the case then there's no question of Ed's sincerity.

Green Cross Code Man · Mar 6, 2015

Monsieur Le Plonk said:
....and yet If Ed goes for it he's odds on to get the keys to number 10. Interesting dilemma.

I don't agree that he'd be odds on. The SNP looks as though it may wipe out most of Labour's support in Scotland. If that happens, labour may well not receive a large enough vote in England to make a government with them.

somerset · Mar 6, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
The SNP will clearly have to put aside their desire for independence in any coalition negotiation. They'll use/trade this for a handful of other key items. This is how coalitions work.

Interesting how you see that as viable for SNP/Labour,.... but had no tolerance for Clegg having to give up his Uni fees stance,..... you fickle anti-conservative lot,....... just cannot see your own inbuilt prejudices, can you?

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 6, 2015

somerset said:
Interesting how you see that as viable for SNP/Labour,.... but had no tolerance for Clegg having to give up his Uni fees stance,..... you fickle anti-conservative lot,....... just cannot see your own inbuilt prejudices, can you?

Fair point. I'm not sure I had "no tolerance" but I recall being very disappointed at the time. But university fees, and education in general, is a big topic of mine so it had a lot of resonance with me. That said, I do appreciate that bargaining has to take place and concessions need to be made. What was crap about the Lib arrangement is that all their big ticket items were either watered down, eg PR, or totally lost eg uni fees. They could and should have done much better and conceded one for the other.

Surf's Up · Mar 6, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
Fair point. I'm not sure I had "no tolerance" but I recall being very disappointed at the time. But university fees, and education in general, is a big topic of mine so it had a lot of resonance with me. That said, I do appreciate that bargaining has to take place and concessions need to be made. What was crap about the Lib arrangement is that all their big ticket items were either watered down, eg PR, or totally lost eg uni fees. They could and should have done much better and conceded one for the other.

Ironically the fact that the Lib Dems proved to be so weak is probaly one of the main reasons why the coalition survived. I think a SNP/Labour coalition would be a completely differnt animal because the SNP would be much harder to negotiate with and Milliband and Labour are deperate to get into No 10.

Ernest · Mar 6, 2015

Nice to see the TV companies not backing down and going ahead with their plans of the TV debates on 2, 16 & 30th April, if Cameron doesn't show he has lost the election and if he does show it will be a MASSIVE climbdown

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 6, 2015

Surf's Up said:
Ironically the fact that the Lib Dems proved to be so weak is probaly one of the main reasons why the coalition survived. I think a SNP/Labour coalition would be a completely differnt animal because the SNP would be much harder to negotiate with and Milliband and Labour are deperate to get into No 10.

I personally feel it will be a bit easier as there is more common ground between Labour and SNP. I think you'll see something more akin to here in Germany . There is little, if any, common ground within the current set up so stuff either gets fudged or dropped. It remains to be seen though but I agree the SNP will be a different beast.

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