[Politics] Brexit

beorhthelm · May 25, 2016

drew said:
The figures are projections/forecasts. It is not an exact science. I am not going to hold the government to account if GDP only drops by an equivalent of £4,299 per household.

you really should do, as if GDP were to drop £4299 a houshold between now and 2030, then we'd have been in a signifcant recession/stagnation cycle over the 15 years. i mention this to highlight the claim is we would have slightly les growth over the period, but growth none the less, and we'd be down a few % lower than if we stayed (according to their figures, with thier assumption of no positive effects). the leave camp dont really need to give any numbers, they can just use the remain numbers - this is all thats going to happen, 6% less GDP, or 0.1% a quarter over 15 years, to put that back in context, its 34% higher GDP rather than potentially 40%, so you will not actually be worse off than now.

pastafarian · May 25, 2016

Jim in the West said:
Bladders, I think you are right on the last point - and that's the reason why a post-Brexit EU will play hard-ball with us. They will do everything they can to ensure no one else leaves. The Leave campaign is making out that we will easily be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market post Brexit, and everything will be hunky-dory. We don't know for certain what will happen, but I'd be 99% sure that the rest of the EU will stick two fingers up at us, and rub their hands with glee as we grovel at their doorstep trying to renegotiate all manner of important issues.

And they couldn't give a toss about losing the £8bn net contribution from the UK - it sounds a lot of money, but the total EU budget is around EUR 150bn, which is around 1% of each member states' GDP. So the £8m we would no longer contribute is approx 0.07% of the GDP of the remaining 27 members.

During these post brexit negotiations does the EU not have a duty to consider wider implications like jobs within the remaining states. If they go completely hard ball and throw the book at us and cast us off into the wilderness as a clear message for the remaining members to not even contemplate leaving they will be unnecessarily dumping existing EU jobs into the wasteland just to prove a point? Why would you want to be a part of that kind of institution in the first place?

If they really dont give a toss about our contribution to the club then best we say goodbye,im sure Greece can pick up the shortfall.

Jim in the West said:
The Leave campaign have kidded themselves that they don't need an argument - hence they haven't produced one! They think that because the EU is flawed we're all going to vote for a Brexit. They have unfortunately discovered that a helluva lot of people would rather put their trust in a flawed EU than deranged public school/Oxbridge toffs like Boris and Michael Gove,

There are plenty of arguments for leaving from a wide section of topics,i dont think you have been listening.
Your final analysis makes no common sense though.We can all agree its flawed it seems. Why would you put your trust in a flawed EU in the first place? If you are going to say ....ah yes its broken but we are going to stay in and fix the flaws at least present a list of the reforms that the remain camp want undertaken so everyone can at least see if they are 1/achievable 2/meaningful .......otherwise all you are doing is asking everyone to trust a turd that cant be polished.

Publius Ovidius · May 25, 2016

Yes..I have been told that as I am responsible for various European divisions of our US company, and any excuse they can find to sell them off, especially as there are vary favourable tax incentives of dealing with the EU in the US Seemly, then my services and that of a lot of people in the UK would be " reviewed"

So I am hardly going to, like a turkey voting for Christmas, vote to leave something that provides my income with something where there is no guarantee of anything.

The Rivet · May 25, 2016

Bladders said:
......and a half!!

Time for a diary and pimple popping then!

drew · May 25, 2016

beorhthelm said:
you really should do, as if GDP were to drop £4299 a houshold between now and 2030, then we'd have been in a signifcant recession/stagnation cycle over the 15 years. i mention this to highlight the claim is we would have slightly les growth over the period, but growth none the less, and we'd be down a few % lower than if we stayed (according to their figures, with thier assumption of no positive effects). the leave camp dont really need to give any numbers, they can just use the remain numbers - this is all thats going to happen, 6% less GDP, or 0.1% a quarter over 15 years, to put that back in context, its 34% higher GDP rather than potentially 40%, so you will not actually be worse off than now.

How can you 'guarantee' I would not be worse off when you haven't any idea what the effect of inflation might be?

As for the £4,299 figure, I think you know the point I was making.

pastafarian · May 25, 2016

beorhthelm said:
you really should do, as if GDP were to drop £4299 a houshold between now and 2030, then we'd have been in a signifcant recession/stagnation cycle over the 15 years. i mention this to highlight the claim is we would have slightly les growth over the period, but growth none the less, and we'd be down a few % lower than if we stayed (according to their figures, with thier assumption of no positive effects). the leave camp dont really need to give any numbers, they can just use the remain numbers - this is all thats going to happen, 6% less GDP, or 0.1% a quarter over 15 years, to put that back in context, its 34% higher GDP rather than potentially 40%, so you will not actually be worse off than now.

whose GDP figures do you rely on in the first place? would appear the whole prediction game is a bit of a lottery

The Rivet · May 25, 2016

Publius Ovidius said:
Yes..I have been told that as I am responsible for various European divisions of our US company, and any excuse they can find to sell them off, especially as there are vary favourable tax incentives of dealing with the EU in the US Seemly, then my services and that of a lot of people in the UK would be " reviewed"

So I am hardly going to, like a turkey voting for Christmas, vote to leave something that provides my income with something where there is no guarantee of anything.

There are an awful lot of people that benefit financially working for a company that doesn't import/export. They are happy as they are too. You vote, of course for yourself. Why not. Others have jobs that may also be at risk yet think a little more about the bigger issues. Maybe they are not so insular, myopic and selfish in their political thinking.

Jim in the West · May 25, 2016

pastafarian said:
whose GDP figures do you rely on in the first place? would appear the whole prediction game is a bit of a lottery

View attachment 75131

Ah yes, but surely the Treasury, PwC, CBI, NIESR, CEP, OECD are all in the pay of the EU. Economists for Brexit on the other hand are truly independent.....

Jim in the West · May 25, 2016

The Rivet said:
There are an awful lot of people that don't benefit financially working for a company that doesn't import/export. They are happy as they are too. You vote, of course for yourself. Why not. Others have jobs that may also be at risk yet think a little more about the bigger issues. Maybe they are not so insular, myopic and selfish in their political thinking.

As Bill Clinton famously said - "it's the economy, stupid". I think most people are going to vote for an outcome which promises more financial security. Perhaps that's being myopic, insular and selfish - but name-calling isn't a vote-winner. The best possible strategy for the Leave campaign is to find a bunch of serious, independent economists who will clearly set out the financial case for a Brexit. We can then have a proper debate. It's not too late - there's still four weeks to go.

larus · May 25, 2016

Publius Ovidius said:
Yes..I have been told that as I am responsible for various European divisions of our US company, and any excuse they can find to sell them off, especially as there are vary favourable tax incentives of dealing with the EU in the US Seemly, then my services and that of a lot of people in the UK would be " reviewed"

So I am hardly going to, like a turkey voting for Christmas, vote to leave something that provides my income with something where there is no guarantee of anything.

I totally understand your view, as this is implicitly linked to your own perspective. I.e. a selfish perspective (that's not meant as a criticism by they way, as I'm sure a lot of people would take the same view).

There are many companies which choose to invest in the UK because of our flexible labour markets, ease of doing business, language, skills, infrastructure etc. There are also lots of companies who choose not to invest in Europe as they often lack these attributes. France is a prime example where the rules and regulations are a deterrent.

We were told the that not being in the EURO would lead to less inward investment. Didn't happen.
We were told that we would lose the major banks from the City if we weren't in the EURO. Didn't happen.
We were told that our economy would be weaker if we weren't in the EURO. After the crash in 2008, we recovered much quicker than the EURO area (albeit we had a deeper crash), and the EURO area only recently reached the same level of GDP as before the crash.
Oh, by the way, Italy is still 8% below the 2008 level, it's GDP is at the same level as when the EURO was launched and it's debt ratio is climbing. This is being exacerbated by the Growth and Stability pact which forces the government to reduce spending, which in effect deflates the economy even more. It's widely accepted that it's banks are f***ed as they are holding too many bad debts, which impact their ability to lend to drive new growth. When this eventually goes, it will be too big to bail out. It's economy is about 10 times that of Greece.

So, even if we do vote remain (which I expect due to the lies from the corrupt politicians/IMF, etc), I am looking forward (in a perverse way) to the eventual demise of the whole project. The real shame is that the original idea of a free trade area is brilliant. I don't want a superstate, which is the path we are on. I am amazed at the naievity of so many who cannot see the bigger picture of the agenda of the superstate. The European commission (who we don't vote for) are the ones who pass the laws. They hold the power and not the European Parliament. So we as the voters have no way to change those in power. Democracy? Er, no. We're sleep walking into an elitist totalitarian state. Look at Kinnock - a failed UK politician who now earns (from what I read) abour £1.8m, plus Glenys is just under £1m being in the commission.

beorhthelm · May 25, 2016

drew said:
How can you 'guarantee' I would not be worse off when you haven't any idea what the effect of inflation might be?

i certainly wouldnt guarantee it, though the economy probably would be even after an inevitable recession at some point in the next 15 years. i'm going by the claims made by the remain camp and explaining what they really mean, rather than how they are presented. they predict between 2.5 and 2.9 annual growth each year (rising slightly from current then tailing off a little), with us leaving the EU they predicting cumulatively 6% less growth.

Publius Ovidius · May 25, 2016

The Rivet said:
There are an awful lot of people that benefit financially working for a company that doesn't import/export. They are happy as they are too. You vote, of course for yourself. Why not. Others have jobs that may also be at risk yet think a little more about the bigger issues. Maybe they are not so insular, myopic and selfish in their political thinking.

Being insular, myopic and selfish pays for my life....if that offends you, tough

Bladders · May 25, 2016

larus said:
I totally understand your view, as this is implicitly linked to your own perspective. I.e. a selfish perspective (that's not meant as a criticism by they way, as I'm sure a lot of people would take the same view).

There are many companies which choose to invest in the UK because of our flexible labour markets, ease of doing business, language, skills, infrastructure etc. There are also lots of companies who choose not to invest in Europe as they often lack these attributes. France is a prime example where the rules and regulations are a deterrent.

We were told the that not being in the EURO would lead to less inward investment. Didn't happen.
We were told that we would lose the major banks from the City if we weren't in the EURO. Didn't happen.
We were told that our economy would be weaker if we weren't in the EURO. After the crash in 2008, we recovered much quicker than the EURO area (albeit we had a deeper crash), and the EURO area only recently reached the same level of GDP as before the crash.
Oh, by the way, Italy is still 8% below the 2008 level, it's GDP is at the same level as when the EURO was launched and it's debt ratio is climbing. This is being exacerbated by the Growth and Stability pact which forces the government to reduce spending, which in effect deflates the economy even more. It's widely accepted that it's banks are f***ed as they are holding too many bad debts, which impact their ability to lend to drive new growth. When this eventually goes, it will be too big to bail out. It's economy is about 10 times that of Greece.

So, even if we do vote remain (which I expect due to the lies from the corrupt politicians/IMF, etc), I am looking forward (in a perverse way) to the eventual demise of the whole project. The real shame is that the original idea of a free trade area is brilliant. I don't want a superstate, which is the path we are on. I am amazed at the naievity of so many who cannot see the bigger picture of the agenda of the superstate. The European commission (who we don't vote for) are the ones who pass the laws. They hold the power and not the European Parliament. So we as the voters have no way to change those in power. Democracy? Er, no. We're sleep walking into an elitist totalitarian state. Look at Kinnock - a failed UK politician who now earns (from what I read) abour £1.8m, plus Glenys is just under £1m being in the commission.

Good post, albeit on deaf ears

JC Footy Genius · May 25, 2016

Jim in the West said:
As Bill Clinton famously said - "it's the economy, stupid". I think most people are going to vote for an outcome which promises more financial security. Perhaps that's being myopic, insular and selfish - but name-calling isn't a vote-winner. The best possible strategy for the Leave campaign is to find a bunch of serious, independent economists who will clearly set out the financial case for a Brexit. We can then have a proper debate. It's not too late - there's still four weeks to go.

The Economists for Brexit is a group of eight independent, leading economists who are convinced of the strong economic case for leaving the EU. To date, debate on the economic merits of whether the UK should remain in the EU has become overwhelmed by the Government's Project Fear campaign. Each of the eight economists have become exasperated by the scaremongering and often economic illiteracy of this campaign.

http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/

https://next.ft.com/content/1745f3c2-0d16-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515

beorhthelm · May 25, 2016

Jim in the West said:
As Bill Clinton famously said - "it's the economy, stupid". I think most people are going to vote for an outcome which promises more financial security. Perhaps that's being myopic, insular and selfish - but name-calling isn't a vote-winner. The best possible strategy for the Leave campaign is to find a bunch of serious, independent economists who will clearly set out the financial case for a Brexit. We can then have a proper debate. It's not too late - there's still four weeks to go.

and thats true of course, yet it was never supposed to be about economy. it was always about soveriegnty, at least originally. alas the brexit camp have to carry the anti-immigration baggage so fight on two seperate fronts while the remain fight on one, to be fair better territory. its sad that we have a referedum about the existential future of the nation state of the UK and the issue is barely covered.

The Rivet · May 25, 2016

Publius Ovidius said:
Being insular, myopic and selfish pays for my life....if that offends you, tough

Yeah it offends me but your right it's your right. As JFK said: “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country,” Retain the countries right to self determination.
I'm also going to add that that attitude is what is bad in the world, I'm all right jack bugger you. I said no insults earlier but you pious self righteous inners sometimes are beyond belief.

Bladders · May 25, 2016

beorhthelm said:
and thats true of course, yet it was never supposed to be about economy. it was always about soveriegnty, at least originally. alas the brexit camp have to carry the anti-immigration baggage so fight on two seperate fronts while the remain fight on one, to be fair better territory. its sad that we have a referedum about the existential future of the nation state of the UK and the issue is barely covered.

The most worrying thing is that people posting on this forum are putting up better arguments on both sides currently than Dave & Boris.

Take the Obama speech, Boris had so many options to counter his back of the queue line, but the best he could do was pick on his Kenyan
ancestry and the British Empire.

Woeful.

Hampster Gull · May 25, 2016

Westdene Seagull said:
Cameron has promised Turkey that he'll support them becoming EU members.

They better get a move on then, he won't be PM after the 2020 election according to a certain DC

Hampster Gull · May 25, 2016

Now the IFS call it. Add it to the long list. Coffee. Smell. Up. Wake. And. The

Herr Tubthumper · May 25, 2016

Hampster Gull said:
They better get a move on then, he won't be PM after the 2020 election according to a certain DC

I imagine the Turkey vote will come under Corbyn's parliament.

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