[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

beorhthelm said:

i'll throw it out there if FSB were behind this, they could have done a better job of making it look like Ukraine involvement. as it is, there's just opportunistic use to blame Ukraine.

here's another interesting side, what if the Kremlin are actually convincing themselves its Ukraine, indicating disfunction in the security services and leadership, taking their eye off other internal conflicts.

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peterward said:

good points and you're delving into areas that require expertise to answer, that I certainly dont have answers to.

.... i actually think he is f**ked in the head

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peterward said:

good points and you're delving into areas that require expertise to answer, that I certainly dont have answers to.

Obviously all propaganda is to create narratives, whether stories or staged events. You dont need a reason if you can just create one! at source in places like Russia and N Korea, youd assume there are some that know full well the game and the intent, but it also seems very true, from reading, that many such societies do end up believing their own created bullshit realities.

If you hear Putins anti western rants, youd think the CIA were hiding in his cornflakes packet, he's still locked in the 1980's. i actually think he is f**ked in the head and believes a lot of this shit?

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cheshunt seagull said:

I have absolutely no illusions about Putin’s ruthlessness or the amount of blood he would shed to keep himself in power. He is a monster ,however I don’t see how he gets any benefit from this attack.

It happened in a week in which a sham election was followed by a rally in Red Square. The aim of this will have been to generate a mood of nationalism and the impression of a strong government. This incident completely goes against the tone of the week which will have been carefully planned and engineered.

Some of the attendees at the concert will have been relatives of the Russian elite. Putin needs these people to believe that he is in full control of security as they will pounce on any weakness. If he wanted a high body count from an incident he could have found a location for it with more of what he would perceive as ‘disposable’ people.

The handling of theatre attack and hostage crisis in 2002 was universally viewed as catastrophic. Why would any Russian leader want to stir up any memory of that?

The lack of response by security staff at the event could be explained by security at events like this not being a priority. Although many people are employed in domestic security it doesn’t mean that they are all of high quality and motivation. This may be particularly the case with increase of people going into the military. I don’t know but I wouldn’t be surprised if the people on duty were on a similar level to the stewards we used to encounter at Brisbane Rd.

The slowness of the emergency response could be simply down to the fact that the venue is on the outskirts of the city.

I admit that I am not sure what to make of the lack of response to warnings from US intelligence. A theory here is that with the focus in recent weeks being on the election and inevitable celebrations,l as well as the ongoing focus on Ukraine, the Kremlin just didn’t have the mental bandwidth to think about anything else and that Putin didn’t want to hear about anything that wasn’t in line with his plans for a festival of his power. I am interested to see if more comes out about this.

I agree that we should always consider options and arguments and there is a lot that can be challenged in what I have written. False flag operations have occurred, the Gulf of Tonkin springs to mind. I am not saying anyone on here does this, but I am concerned at the ease with which a few carefully selected examples of inconsistencies are combined with a motive to generate a theory which generates a large number of social media clicks.

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crookie said:

Reports of 2 more landing ships damaged in a Ukrainian attack on Crimea

Ukraine war: Two Russian landing ships hit off Crimea, officials say

A large number of missiles targeted Kyiv early on Sunday as Russia stepped up attacks against Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

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cheshunt seagull said:

It’s a horrible prospect but I think if you could spend some time in Putin’s head you would find a mixture of 1980’s KGB anti-western paranoia and Peter the Great fantasising with a bit of Stalinism thrown in. His increased self-isolation means that he may well fully believe the stuff he says. However I’d be surprised if the likes of Lavrov share this delusion.

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cheshunt seagull said:

They were about intimidation and surveillance which are basics for authoritarian regimes. These regimes are also not noted for the agility and responsiveness of their command structures. I think that cultural events had not been considered a security priority. This proved to be a poor piece of judgement and they have made a half-arsed attempt to save something by blaming Ukraine but no-one will believe it. I think people are in danger of over-thinking this.

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peterward said:

You make good and well reasoned points the simple answer is his need to mobilise 500k + extra meat for his meat grinder, when levada polls show domestic support for war is waning, and the last time he mobilised it turned into a shambles as people started legging it left right and centre.

There was zero public appetite to go back into Chechnya in 1999, the people didn't want it and here was a man with a low public profile who was forecast (on polling) to lose the presidential election.

Boom, "Chechens blow up Moscow apartments" (FSB did it), public baying for blood, unite around the leader and flag wanting revenge and now wanting war, which solidifies Putins grip on power.

This crazy 3 day war to take Kyiv is not existential for Russia but it is for Putin and the ruling Siloviki, their whole vertical of power will not survive defeat in Ukraine, so as you rightly cited, they will do absolutely anything to retain power.

140 dead in a theatre, then trying to link it to Ukraine (to unite society around more war, Putin, mobilisation and feed Ukraine hatred) is existential to Putin.

The only question, was Theatre attack FSB organised, or genuine ISIS?

Either way, it's now clear the Kremlins intent is to use this terror act similarly to 1999 terror act with a false narrative.

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Nobby said:

And because for the last few years, the Russian people have only one news stream, many many will believe it was Ukraine.

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Eric the meek said:

You make some good points, but I would counsel against announcing a particular actor is innocent just yet. Further information may emerge.

Try to see events through the lens of Putin fighting for his life. He knows he has to stay in power. As soon as he loses power, he's dead.
You question why would he benefit from the attack? To be ruthless in reply, and reinforce his tough-guy image? Or perhaps he didn't instigate it. Perhaps it was some other faction within the Kremlin. To paraphrase Churchill, think of rats fighting in a sack.

In my previous post, I wrote 'Was it a false flag? I don't know'. Since then, I have seen the Go-Pro camera footage from the terrorists. It is graphic, with people being hacked to death. Combined with the claims of responsibility, it makes it much more likely it was ISIS. But wait. Does the guilt of ISIS mean the FSB are innocent? Your answer might depend on what you have already convinced yourself of. For me, I don't yet know the FSB were not involved. Questions remain. (No security, turned off the CCTV, didn't turn up for an hour etc.)

For the record, I've never bought into the idea that the FSB are incompetent (nazi shirts and 3 Sims games left by Ukrainians etc). That just suggests the FSB wanted to create a narrative that the FSB are idiots.

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Eric the meek said:

BBC reporting that Russian officials are linking the attack to Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68642036

The piece posted at 4.04am further down the article is also worth a read. Russians eh?

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sparkie said:

1000km from the border !



But, yeah Vladimir, totally believable that Ukraine is faffing about attacking theatres in priority to more strategic targets

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raymondo said:

Interesting tweet from the Scobbler, in reply, with a proposed route past Volgograd into West Kazakhstan, then north to Samara. Interesting thoughts...

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Eric the meek said:

Those are lovely pictures of the Novokuibyshevsk night sky lit up.

This forum could do with a bit of art.

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